December 2022

[Franklin0529]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Oh it budged

For sure lol

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Cold following the storm is nothing crazy on xmas day:

Probably be above freezing…yawn 

[White Gorilla]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Well that didn't take long for the GFS to partially cave. It usually takes a day or 2 at this timeframe. 

The cutter solutions this far out often stick to verify because there is so much geographical freedom, possibilities for warm, rainy solutions...... 100 miles west or 1000 miles west or anything in between. For a snowy solution, you have such limited margin for error with track.  

[Rmine1]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Probably be above freezing…yawn 

Yup. Yawn. Don’t forget never ending muddy paw prints 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

The cutter solutions this far out often stick to verify because there is so much geographical freedom, possibilities for warm, rainy solutions...... 100 miles west or 1000 miles west or anything in between. For a snowy solution, you have such limited margin for error with track.  

Yes, I was just saying the GFS is normally stubborn and doesn't cave so quickly to other models no matter what the scenario. It usually takes a few days and not just 1 or 2 model runs. 

[scootmandu]

Precip is rapidly winding down. We logged .88 from this weather event so far, and earlier today had a peak wind gust of 27.3. The wind has completed its shift from ESE to N to NNW. Our barometer made it to 29.53 at 3 PM, before starting to rise a bit as the low passed south of Long Island.

[PuraVida]

I know everyone always wants snow, but where are the wind weenies on this one?

Do coastal flood weenies even exist? If so, can they make an appearance?


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[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

The old saying. You got to smell the rain before you get the snow. All I know is before this winter is over we should be in for one hell of a KU storm with all this rain we have been getting

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

The old saying. You got to smell the rain before you get the snow. All I know is before this winter is over we should be in for one hell of a KU storm with all this rain we have been getting

What a change. We had like one of the driest summers on record with low humidity. I loved it 

[SRRTA22]

13 minutes ago, PuraVida said:

I know everyone always wants snow, but where are the wind weenies on this one?

Do coastal flood weenies even exist? If so, can they make an appearance?


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I'm here. Full blown wind weenie at your service. 

[Snowlover11]

winter ova.  smh. always get sucked in to be let down.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

winter ova.  smh. always get sucked in to be let down.

Ha!  Not over but the evolution didn't go as planned.  Maybe January will have some threats

[EastonSN+]

I mean this always had a risk of cutting per below older runs.

Recent runs gave us a head fake.

Like Forky stated after Christmas.

And what has changed in the pattern depicted in the ensembles?

[JB_Wchstr]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean this always had a risk of cutting per below older runs.

Recent runs gave us a head fake.

Like Forky stated after Christmas.

And what has changed in the pattern depicted in the ensembles?

Once a cutter, always a cutter. Even one warm run usually tells the story. This far out you want a whiff, and then it works its way west. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, PuraVida said:

I know everyone always wants snow, but where are the wind weenies on this one?

Do coastal flood weenies even exist? If so, can they make an appearance?


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I've got 2 anemometers above the roof. I never really admit to this.

[etudiant]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I've got 2 anemometers above the roof. I never really admit to this.

Do they agree?

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Rain should be banned during the winter 

The best way to do that is move to places like Northern Maine Adirondacks Minnesota etc. NYC is not a good spot for this. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

The cutter solutions this far out often stick to verify because there is so much geographical freedom, possibilities for warm, rainy solutions...... 100 miles west or 1000 miles west or anything in between. For a snowy solution, you have such limited margin for error with track.  

This is a really great point. I know we often say when it's a cutter the solution locks in a week out but snowstorms always come down to the wire but what you said is very true. Whether a low goes over Chicago Detriot or Pittsburgh it really makes no difference to us and we won't notice. The GFS is still like 700 miles SE of the other models but who really cares in this subforum. 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Do they agree?

Yes but one is higher than the other. I have 2 because of a big pine that blocks the main anemometer from getting a SW wind. The other one takes care of that. 

[Winterweatherlover]

32 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

Once a cutter, always a cutter. Even one warm run usually tells the story. This far out you want a whiff, and then it works its way west. 

Not always I've definitely seen the models be too overamped in this range but 2 straight runs plowing into the lakes from the 2 models I trust the most is a pretty bleak sign. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The best way to do that is move to places like Northern Maine Adirondacks Minnesota etc. NYC is not a good spot for this. 

Marquette 

[North and West]

winter ova.  smh. always get sucked in to be let down.

waiting to sing the sun angle song


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[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

waiting to sing the sun angle song


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It’s coming but don’t sell the farm

[North and West]

It’s coming but don’t sell the farm

mama said we can’t talk about sun angle until after Christmas


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[eduggs]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Be back for 0z when the models come east

Ciao

Nope, it's locked in now. Expect the GFS to trend further west and warmer. Could be severe storms.

[wishcast_hater]

7 days out. Just saying.


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[HeadInTheClouds]

19 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

7 days out. Just saying.


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It's over. These storms that cut like this don't trend east. It's not an inland runner. It's a strong low setting up shop in the midwest. 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's over. These storms that cut like this don't trend east. It's not an inland runner. It's a strong low setting up shop in the midwest. 

That's how it looks to me too. And the key features are only 4-5 days out from being in their critical locations, so there's not a ton of time for changes. But things could still evolve differently, so we'll all probably continue to track.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's how it looks to me too. And the key features are only 4-5 days out from being in their critical locations, so there's not a ton of time for changes. But things could still evolve differently, so we'll all probably continue to track.

Unfortunately it's going to take a lot of evolving to move this baby east 1000 miles especially when all models are way west. 

[Winterweatherlover]

I’d give it until tomorrows 12Z runs before totally throwing in the towel. Something like a secondary forming or CAD being stronger than modeled could still give parts of the sub forum (especially interior) some frozen precip.