December 2022

[ag3]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

How did we do in December 2017? I remember that as a backloaded winter-- our first snow was actually in January 2018 that season from what I remember.

 

 

NYC had 7.7" in Dec. 2017. Above normal.

 

4.6" Dec. 9th

1.2" Dec. 14th

1.2" Dec. 15th

A few more traces and then .7" Dec. 30th.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Something else Nina’s are known for… northern stream dominant systems. 

I know there are many other factors influencing things but this Nina has to end. 

It was fine in 2017-18 and many other la nina winters though.  It's not so much about that anymore as it is that warm pool.

 

[Rjay]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I told you this wasn’t a epic look 

It was though lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ag3 said:

 

NYC has 7.7" in Dec. 2017. Above normal.

December isn't a winter month for us anymore (for the most part) so I think we have to treat January as the new December.  We basically have two month winters (January and February) so that's where we need to cash in.  Sometimes March does well too-- more often than December does.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It was though lol

At least we got that quarter to half inch of snow.  It'll be funny if that's all we get this month and then we get a big snowstorm in the first week of January.

 

[ag3]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

December isn't a winter month for us anymore (for the most part) so I think we have to treat January as the new December.  We basically have two month winters (January and February) so that's where we need to cash in.  Sometimes March does well too-- more often than December does.

I'm just telling you the stats for the last 150+ years of NYC weather records.

 

2" or less in December is bad for NYC rest of winter

1" or less even worse.

But there can always be an exception with a lucky HECS like in 2016.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yes we seem to get more snow chances/snow in March in recent years than in December.  

Yeah, it reversed right after the Boxing Day Blizzard. Just an amazing run of Decembers from 2000-2010. While we have an occasional snowy December like 2020, the snowfall is way down and the temperatures up since the 11-12 non winter. December snowfall has been only 30% of the previous decade or so.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.8	2.8
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	8.9	8.9
2010	20.1	20.1
2009	12.4	12.4
2008	6.0	6.0
2007	2.9	2.9
2006	0.0	0.0
2005	9.7	9.7
2004	3.0	3.0
2003	19.8	19.8
2002	11.0	11.0
2001	T	T
2000	13.4	13.4

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ag3 said:

I'm just telling you the stats for the last 150+ years of NYC weather records.

 

2" or less in December is bad for NYC rest of winter

1" or less even worse.

But there can always be an exception with a lucky HECS like in 2016.

I remember Don posted some stats-- it was for la ninas and less than 3" of snow in December though

For el nino it's different as we've had a few bad Decembers which had great backloaded winters (1977-78 being a prime example.)  Another one was 2014-15 (I think that was a neutral phase though.)

 

[Brian5671]

I'd be fine with this "pattern" breaking down, it has done nothing for us for the most part outside of some N and W areas

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I remember Don posted some stats-- it was for la ninas and less than 3" of snow in December though

For el nino it's different as we've had a few bad Decembers which had great backloaded winters (1977-78 being a prime example.)  Another one was 2014-15 (I think that was a neutral phase though.)

 

Given this La Niña if you believe the ENSO models is really going to crap out we may be in better position later in the winter than normal 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it reversed right after the Boxing Day Blizzard. Just an amazing run of Decembers from 2000-2010. While we have an occasional snowy December like 2020, the snowfall is way down and the temperatures up since the 11-12 non winter. December snowfall has been only 30% of the previous decade or so.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.8	2.8
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	8.9	8.9
2010	20.1	20.1
2009	12.4	12.4
2008	6.0	6.0
2007	2.9	2.9
2006	0.0	0.0
2005	9.7	9.7
2004	3.0	3.0
2003	19.8	19.8
2002	11.0	11.0
2001	T	T
2000	13.4	13.4

Interesting thing is that January now has more snowfall than it used to.

I remember Januarys used to be mostly cold and dry throughout the 80s except for a couple of exceptions.  There was a time when a 20" snowstorm in January was almost nonexistent-- that has changed.

 

[Gravity Wave]

16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas. 

NYC proper got 6-8" from a storm in mid-December 2020.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I'd be fine with this "pattern" breaking down, it has done nothing for us for the most part outside of some N and W areas

Yea I think I read the other day sometimes you need a huge cutter to break the pattern. I still wouldn't be surprised if the storm next week ultimately transfers to a secondary similar to today not that it would really help many people on here. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Given this La Niña if you believe the ENSO models is really going to crap out we may be in better position later in the winter than normal 

Plus there's a chance of an SSW

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea I think I read the other day sometimes you need a huge cutter to break the pattern. I still wouldn't be surprised if the storm next week ultimately transfers to a secondary similar to today not that it would really help many people on here. 

Yeah I was the one that said we need a cutter to break the pattern lol

Coastal huggers beget more coastal huggers.

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah I was the one that said we need a cutter to break the pattern lol

Coastal huggers beget more coastal huggers.

 

I think it’s more the fact the PNA is going positive next week after this event anyway.  The ensembles have been showing that for awhile.  The pattern before the storm isn’t really a positive PNA at all, if anything it’s weakly negative   

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it’s more the fact the PNA is going positive next week after this event anyway.  The ensembles have been showing that for awhile.  The pattern before the storm isn’t really a positive PNA at all, if anything it’s weakly negative   

So do you think the pattern will get better after next week's storm (whatever form it takes?)

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Also tons of bad luck. It's just dates on the calendar really. I doubt the climate says you will be warm from December 17th through the 25th

The warm up around the solstice is an actual annual occurrence now. We have had 11 consecutive years going over 55° in NYC which has never happened before. Contrast that with the first 2 weeks of the month which hasn’t seen the big maximum temperature increase. But I couldn’t tell you why the timing within about 5 days of the solstice has been so reliable for these warm ups.

[ag3]

In the last 50 years, here are KNYC winters with a T or less in December and their Season totals:

 

72-73: 2.8"

94-95: 11.8"

97-98: 5.5"

99-00: 16.3"

01-02: 3.5"

06-07: 12.4"

11-12: 7.4"

15-16: 32.8" (All from 1 HECS in January, 2016)

18-19: 20.5"

 

Average: 12.5"

[Allsnow]

@bluewave r you still confident in a snowstorm before January? Models break the pattern down quickly 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, ag3 said:

In the last 50 years, here are KNYC winters with a T or less in December and their Season totals:

 

72-73: 2.8"

94-95: 11.8"

97-98: 5.5"

99-00: 16.3"

01-02: 3.5"

06-07: 12.4"

11-12: 7.4"

15-16: 32.8" (All from 1 HECS in January, 2016)

18-19: 20.5"

 

Average: 12.5"

The problem is there are so many years in there with like 1-2 inches which ended up with big totals so it’s hard to say accurate these stats are over a long term period of 200 years or something   

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Allsnow said:

@bluewave r you still confident in a snowstorm before January? Models break the pattern down quickly 

They don’t really break it down, there just is not much cold air but the 500mb pattern D10-16 is way better for us than the pattern now  

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem is there are so many years in there with like 1-2 inches which ended up with big totals so it’s hard to say accurate these stats are over a long term period of 200 years or something   

 

Agree, but the odds are against us. Even years with 1"-2" or lower for December, the good winters were rare. Not the norm.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

Agree, but the odds are against us. Even years with 1" or 2" for December, the good winters were rare. Not the norm.

 

2015-16 was amazing in that JFK had over 40"...many don't remember these but February was a very good month for snow around here, just not west of Queens.  We had very heavy snow that caused a crane to fall  and snow the week of the Superbowl too.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

Agree, but the odds are against us. Even years with 1"-2" or lower for December, the good winters were rare. Not the norm.

 

How much did we get in December 2014? 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Allsnow said:

How much did we get in December 2014? 

and December 1977

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave r you still confident in a snowstorm before January? Models break the pattern down quickly 

The models have changed quite a bit from what they were showing last weekend. So we could get out of December without much snow. But I still think the AO dipping under -4 this month will give us more blocking opportunities JFM. 

[ag3]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

How much did we get in December 2014? 

 

1.0"

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The models have changed quite a bit from what they were showing last weekend. So we could get out of December without much snow. But I still think the AO dipping under -4 this month will give us more blocking opportunities JFM. 

Thanks 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

1.0"

When did that fall? Probably the biggest winter turnaround I can remember that year