HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 What a disaster with today's runs. Don't worry though 18z GFS should show 2 feet of snow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 See you guys in January. It’s like dieting, but when you get on the scale, nada. December looks to be for naught, despite previous fantastical possibilities. I’m just hoping that this is not the start of a major climatological change for the east coast. happy holidays! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 From the Philly subforum Yesterday 12z to now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: From the Philly sunforum Yesterday 12z to now Just a minor difference of 1500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: From the Philly sunforum Yesterday 12z to now Very dramatic changes. I think we need to see a few more runs before saying it's done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: See you guys in January. It’s like dieting, but when you get on the scale, nada. December looks to be for naught, despite previous fantastical possibilities. I’m just hoping that this is not the start of a major climatological change for the east coast. happy holidays! The climatological change is something gradual. We shouldn't even notice it (in an abrupt way). More than likely we have already been experiencing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread We need more posts like this with some actual insight... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I agree it's not great to be in the jackpot 7 days out but if the low was out halfway in the Atlantic I'd say we have a long way to go. Rarely do storms that are shown ramming into the great lakes end up trending to snow along or near I95 but realistically we are far enough out where I'd say give this another day before throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very dramatic changes. I think we need to see a few more runs before saying it's done. Or until GFS eventually caves. Whichever comes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Looks like there'd be some strong winds in NYC with that gradient. Something close to Isaias I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 My wife last night asked me if we are going to get a big snowstorm next weekend because she saw on twitter that a snowstorm is coming People need to stop hyping this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Or until GFS eventually caves. Whichever comes first. The GFS didn't really cave in todays storm until 12 hours out so idk if I'd rely on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: My wife last night asked me if we are going to get a big snowstorm next weekend because she saw on twitter that a snowstorm is coming People need to stop hyping this far out. It's still true for....Chicago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: My wife last night asked me if we are going to get a big snowstorm next weekend because she saw on twitter that a snowstorm is coming People need to stop hyping this far out. Probably get to Christmas now without a inch of snow in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On a side note, if that high out west verifies, that's well over 31 inches of mercury on the home barometers, corrected for sea level. Record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Eps is further west but nothing like the op. Still a lakes cutter. See you later. Terrible turn of events when it looked like we might see a big snowstorm near Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Probably get to Christmas now without a inch of snow in Brooklyn Yep o well Shit happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Eps is further west but nothing like the op. Still a lakes cutter. See you later. Terrible turn of events when it looked like we might see a big snowstorm near Christmas. It's over dude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Probably get to Christmas now without a inch of snow in Brooklyn Maybe even January...snowless decembers are never a good sign for winter.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yep o well Shit happens I told you this wasn’t a epic look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The GFS didn't really cave in todays storm until 12 hours out so idk if I'd rely on that. I was only kidding but it will still eventually cave. This weeks storm isn't close to the differences in next week's. It was more thermal and nuances with topography, elevation, downsloping, etc. The differences in next week's storm are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I told you this wasn’t a epic look Congrats Want a cookie ? I guess I should listen to you more than to alot of meteorologists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Another year. Nothing changes. Have to take models a week out with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Congrats Want a cookie ? I guess I should listen to you more than to alot of meteorologists. Snowman19 probably laughing right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Snowman19 probably laughing right now I was just thinking about him. He will pop up soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Obviously this is a very dynamic pattern and storm we're dealing with. I don't think we should be getting bent out of shape for this one. We're probably gonna be flip flopping between all sorts of solutions between now and Tuesday. It's the weekend , let's forget the models , indulge in some weekend activities () And get back to it Sunday. That's my plan at least. Fook them models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Snowman19 probably laughing right now Yup. He's lighting a cigar as we speak. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Maybe even January...snowless decembers are never a good sign for winter.... Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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