wdrag Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 If we get ourselves a persistent 24 hours onshore flow of 20-35KT, I see more flooding at high tide the 22nd or 23rd, than what occurred with todays high tides. New Moon coming on the 23rd I think. Worthy of monitoring for potential moderate or greater IF we can muster ne flow for about 24 hours prior to the high tides. I know there is potential for a period of much stronger wind but this storm for us is not a done deal, at least not yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Stormlover , I think you understood what I was saying = If you believe that the the Euro and for that matter any other model is nailing this 7 days and 168 hrs out ( and I will give you that it " might" be ) when there is still so much uncertainty and yet to be determined then I guess we can all log off right now and go Christmas shopping. I am fairly certain that the Euro at 120 or 144hrs will look different than it did on the last run ( it might even look completely different on it's next run ) If the Euro was showing us an " L " directly over the benchmark right now I would be saying the exact same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro looks nothing like the gfs early. This one is gonna cut as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The holiday is only adding to the level of paranoia around the forums. It's palpable. Anyway, 7 days out and appreciate those providing objective information, even if it's difficult to sift through to find. Everyone freaking out on one side or the other just needs to relax and get some perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro looks nothing like the gfs early. This one is gonna cut as well Looks like the CMC through 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro looks nothing like the gfs early. This one is gonna cut as well Brutal. Just can't win. Not over but not good trends GFS is an outlier but maybe the outlier scores a coup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Looks like the CMC through 96 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Brutal. Just can't win. Not over but not good trends GFS is an outlier but maybe the outlier scores a coup... 6 days out is an eternity. I bet all of you gave up early when we had the big snowstorms in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Brutal. Just can't win. Not over but not good trends GFS is an outlier but maybe the outlier scores a coup... As someone mentioned, the GFS is a totally different storm evolution. That’s all or nothing. I’m most interested in seeing if the GFS continues as such an extreme outlier; would certainly keep things spicy. Seriously though, this is WAY better than last Dec even if it ends in disappointment. I’ll take the seasonable cold and trackable threats to rainy torch city any day. The extreme -PNA was soul crushing last year. Already ahead IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 6 days out is an eternity. I bet all of you gave up early when we had the big snowstorms in the past. Pattern has been the same, cutter city. Why would it change? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6 days out is an eternity. I bet all of you gave up early when we had the big snowstorms in the past. Take the rose colored glasses off. When the gfs is on it's own its usually always wrong. I want snow as much as anyone. But the trends since yesterday afternoon aren't good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Take the rose colored glasses off. When the gfs is on it's own its usually always wrong. I want snow as much as anyone. But the trends since yesterday afternoon aren't good Of course but is the storm tomorrow ? Be realistic and just continue to track it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6 days out is an eternity. I bet all of you gave up early when we had the big snowstorms in the past. So was 15 days, 10 days, now 6 days. Each time we’re on the wrong side of the final solution. Rapidly losing hope for the pre Xmas storm. After that, things aren’t as promising as this period was supposed to be, so maybe that’s when we do well. This threat is on life support for a snowy solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Of course but is the storm tomorrow ? Be realistic and just continue to track it. 6 days out gfs vs everyone. I know who I'm taking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: 6 days out gfs vs everyone. I know who I'm taking Me to but you still should track this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It ain't over yet- only once someone mentions the possibility of back end snows will the fat lady have sung her song 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro looks nothing like the gfs early. This one is gonna cut as well More rain.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The GFS is literally showing another planet's storm with how different it is from literally every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Me to but you still should track this Of course. Till probably Tomorrow night when the gfs caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 trend today has been awful. cold this week followed by warm rain followed by very cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I am assuming the CMC and Euro dont have a rising PNA like the GFS so there is a trough out west that forces this to cut into Chicago. Not sure what a -4 AO is good for at this point.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro is Over Chicago and torches the east coast… brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: trend today has been awful. cold this week followed by warm rain followed by very cold. Classic Nina Cutter pattern....bunch of them in the late 90's too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: Euro is Over Chicago and torches the east coast… brutal At least Christmas is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yeah models runs suck today. PNA gets going too late. It showed this a couple days ago. We'll see if it reverts or stays this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: I am assuming the CMC and Euro dont have a rising PNA like the GFS so there is a trough out west that forces this to cut into Chicago. Not sure what a -4 AO is good for at this point.. Exactly We haven't gotten anything yet out of the massive negative AO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: At least Christmas is cold who cares we are all inside anyway... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Exactly We haven't gotten anything yet out of the massive negative AO . It doesn't always happen right away. Sometimes it can take over a month and December hasn't been kind to us. But it is what it is. Also not every strong -AO has led to a snowy outcome especially in a Nina 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: who cares we are all inside anyway... Idk about you but with the torches of past recent Christmases we actually fired up the grill a few times to cook the turkey outside while wearing shorts! I'd be happy with cold and maybe flurries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: Idk about you but with the torches of past recent Christmases we actually fired up the grill a few times to cook the turkey outside while wearing shorts! I'd be happy with cold and maybe flurries. haha true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 WOW! I need to see if the EPS 500 looks like the 12z/16 op for 12/23?? offline for a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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