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December 2022


dmillz25
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is a storm 168+ hours out. We want to see the storm signal and overall upper air pattern. The R/S line is irrelevant here. If we see more blocking and a western ridge nudging east a title more, that’s really what I’m looking at. 

Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is a storm 168+ hours out. We want to see the storm signal and overall upper air pattern. The R/S line is irrelevant here. If we see more blocking and a western ridge nudging east a title more, that’s really what I’m looking at. 

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_56.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

sfcwind_mslp.conus (2).png

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Why is anyone worried a week out ? We have been through this all the time.

We easily could see a GFS/Euro total cave tonight and the solution may still be wrong and something totally different may happen...we've seen many occasions where one suite caves at 120-144 and then the end result is grossly different than even that is 

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11 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance

 I would rather be anywhere other than the bullseye ( BTW where's the bullseye emoji ) right now with 7 days to go as we all know that the final solution will look nothing like what the models are showing right now = time will tell

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

 I would rather be anywhere other than the bullseye ( BTW where's the bullseye emoji ) right now with 7 days to go as we all know that the final solution will look nothing like what the models are showing right now = time will tell

You'd rather the euro show a storm in Minnesota than be in the bullseye? 

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4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gefs look great. Gfs was balls on with the storm yesterday 

No it wasn't. It was too far south and east and too cold. GFS as late as yesterday was giving my area around 6 inches and most other models were giving it close to zero. We got close to zero. When GFS is on it's own it's nearly always wrong. 

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At present, neither mourning nor celebration is in order for the potential December 23-24 storm. The picture will be getting clearer after the coming weekend.

Phasing events are complex and details matter greatly. At extended ranges, even the best models don't fully resolve the details.

With the PNA forecast to be rising to neutral or somewhat positive levels coupled with a strongly negative AO, the region has its highest probability relative to climatology for at least an appreciable snowfall. Nearly half of all December 16-31 days with 4" or more snowfall in either New York City, Newark, or Philadelphia during 1950-2021 have occurred with an AO-/PNA+ pattern (and two thirds of storms with daily snowfall of 4" or more in all three cities). There are no guarantees, of course. Some similar patterns deliver very little (December 1950). Others deliver large amounts of snow (December 2010 into January 2011).

image.jpeg.fc36d77754b433240c8814f2331da347.jpeg

The majority of 12/16 0z EPS individual ensemble members have measurable snowfall and a small cluster (around 15%) have 10" or more snowfall in the region. Cluster analysis supports the idea of multiple scenarios being on the table. The 12z guidance will provide additional insight.

A good starting point for a potential event that is still 144-192 hours away is probably the 12/16 15z run of the National Blend of Models (NBM). The , which currently shows about 2.5" of snow in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

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