Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: This kinda funny. Groundhog Day. Sucked right in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I'm not liking these last few model runs at all. Euro was inland at 00z and CMC was a disaster with a major rainstorm. Icon also showed basically a front with rain. Anytime the GFS is basically on it's own it usually spells trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 This is a storm 168+ hours out. We want to see the storm signal and overall upper air pattern. The R/S line is irrelevant here. If we see more blocking and a western ridge nudging east a title more, that’s really what I’m looking at. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This is a storm 168+ hours out. We want to see the storm signal and overall upper air pattern. The R/S line is irrelevant here. If we see more blocking and a western ridge nudging east a title more, that’s really what I’m looking at. Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ukie is a cutter into the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance We have a day or two for the models to trend back otherwise it's over IMO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS an outlier. Given the pattern this month so far, the cutter/inland solution could be correct... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This is a storm 168+ hours out. We want to see the storm signal and overall upper air pattern. The R/S line is irrelevant here. If we see more blocking and a western ridge nudging east a title more, that’s really what I’m looking at. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Ukie is a cutter into the lakes The world against GFS. Our great pattern going up in smoke 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is kinda funny. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS an outlier. Given the pattern this month so far, the cutter/inland solution could be correct... Yup. You want the gfs out to sea or way south at day 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS an outlier. Given the pattern this month so far, the cutter/inland solution could be correct... Different pattern with the PNA rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Why is anyone worried a week out ? We have been through this all the time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gefs looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Why is anyone worried a week out ? We have been through this all the time. Anything on the gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Different pattern with the PNA rising Kudos to hanging on to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Why is anyone worried a week out ? We have been through this all the time. We easily could see a GFS/Euro total cave tonight and the solution may still be wrong and something totally different may happen...we've seen many occasions where one suite caves at 120-144 and then the end result is grossly different than even that is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GEFS will post GEPS once in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Different pattern with the PNA rising Remember what I said yesterday about believing the opposite of what the GFS shows. This is a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why is anyone worried a week out ? We have been through this all the time. umm because most models are moving AWAY from a snow solution? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance I would rather be anywhere other than the bullseye ( BTW where's the bullseye emoji ) right now with 7 days to go as we all know that the final solution will look nothing like what the models are showing right now = time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I would rather be anywhere other than the bullseye ( BTW where's the bullseye emoji ) right now with 7 days to go as we all know that the final solution will look nothing like what the models are showing right now = time will tell You'd rather the euro show a storm in Minnesota than be in the bullseye? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Remember what I said yesterday about believing the opposite of what the GFS shows. This is a prime example. GFS Bad 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Gefs look great. Gfs was balls on with the storm yesterday No it wasn't. It was too far south and east and too cold. GFS as late as yesterday was giving my area around 6 inches and most other models were giving it close to zero. We got close to zero. When GFS is on it's own it's nearly always wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Toaster bath central over 1 week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why is anyone worried a week out ? We have been through this all the time. You’re worried, dude. So am I, for the record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Nibor said: GFS Bad And it continues to prove my point. The truth will set you free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS will post GEPS once in. Keep in mind the OP has 2 seperate systems. There is a LP that misses east followed by the stronger one that gets phased into the coast... Not sure if the GEFS is blending these all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 At present, neither mourning nor celebration is in order for the potential December 23-24 storm. The picture will be getting clearer after the coming weekend. Phasing events are complex and details matter greatly. At extended ranges, even the best models don't fully resolve the details. With the PNA forecast to be rising to neutral or somewhat positive levels coupled with a strongly negative AO, the region has its highest probability relative to climatology for at least an appreciable snowfall. Nearly half of all December 16-31 days with 4" or more snowfall in either New York City, Newark, or Philadelphia during 1950-2021 have occurred with an AO-/PNA+ pattern (and two thirds of storms with daily snowfall of 4" or more in all three cities). There are no guarantees, of course. Some similar patterns deliver very little (December 1950). Others deliver large amounts of snow (December 2010 into January 2011). The majority of 12/16 0z EPS individual ensemble members have measurable snowfall and a small cluster (around 15%) have 10" or more snowfall in the region. Cluster analysis supports the idea of multiple scenarios being on the table. The 12z guidance will provide additional insight. A good starting point for a potential event that is still 144-192 hours away is probably the 12/16 15z run of the National Blend of Models (NBM). The , which currently shows about 2.5" of snow in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Always appreciate your summaries, Don. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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