LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like the pattern breaks down before NYE. Pac flow starts to dominate as we loose the epo. Hopefully we score or this was a huge waste Maybe not though. This kind of extreme block is a good sign going forward to better blocking in the meat of winter-- January and February. Perhaps this blocking needs to break down for a better and stronger block to come along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Snowfall analysis and amounts without LSR's in the 15-16 storm-ops thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So which model was most accurate 6 days out: Current LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 EURO CMC GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO CMC GFS GFS did the best both with track and with strength. Note-- the Euro was WAY too strong and also the farthest west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: GFS did the best both with track and with strength. Note-- the Euro was WAY too strong and also the farthest west. Euro tends to overamplify systems in the LR, which is why its latest run makes me skeptical. Not saying it won't be a hugger but I'd be surprised if the Euro's evolution played out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 45 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO CMC GFS All yucky for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: All yucky for the coast That was this current storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: All yucky for the coast It was known 5-6 days ago this wasn’t our storm because of the crazy wrapped up primary which ruined the airmass and consistent hugger track from the redeveloping low when it finally did meet the block. As long as we had this easterly flow we were done here. We needed a stronger block or early redevelopment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That was this current storm Oh duh. Still yucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It was known 5-6 days ago this wasn’t our storm because of the crazy wrapped up primary which ruined the airmass and consistent hugger track from the redeveloping low when it finally did meet the block. As long as we had this easterly flow we were done here. We needed a stronger block or early redevelopment. Ty. I just assumed we’d moved on to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro tends to overamplify systems in the LR, which is why its latest run makes me skeptical. Not saying it won't be a hugger but I'd be surprised if the Euro's evolution played out. Recent years when in a La Nina the GFS has tended to be better with these big events as well as the CMC....the GFS likely because it is much better with northern stream dynamics as a whole and those can control the show in a La Nina. As we get inside 6 days if the GFS is showing a better dig/better WRN ridge than the Euro/CMC I would like where we stand whereas if it begins too shallow of a dig with the northern shortwave we probably are in trouble. One thing I do not think happens with this event is the northern stream destroying it and resulting in a FROPA. We have a bit too much of a Nino like thing going on this season so far with the southern stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Ty. I just assumed we’d moved on to the next The goal was to show that the GFS was actually most accurate 6 days out. The EURO and CMC were stronger and about 50-100 miles too far west with the secondary. Not saying this will happen with next Thurs/Fri Storm but the evolution is different with a LP coming up from the gulf and one coming into the lakes and then timing.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Icon is a blizzard for Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Icon is a blizzard for Minnesota. The ICON basically went full mid January 1996....that exact sequence occurred like 3 times in a 12 day span Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It was known 5-6 days ago this wasn’t our storm because of the crazy wrapped up primary which ruined the airmass and consistent hugger track from the redeveloping low when it finally did meet the block. As long as we had this easterly flow we were done here. We needed a stronger block or early redevelopment. Airmass was marginal too-even places that got snow it was very elevation dependent almost like a spring storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Icon is a blizzard for Minnesota. Squall line for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The ICON basically went full mid January 1996....that exact sequence occurred like 3 times in a 12 day span This pattern is frustrating as all heck. Cutter after cutter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: Squall line for LI at least it's something exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Icon is a blizzard for Minnesota. Perfect. I was told you never want to be in the bullseye a week out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: at least it's something exciting... These squall lines have become so common around the winter solstice lately….brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The ICON basically went full mid January 1996....that exact sequence occurred like 3 times in a 12 day span Shoutouts to the 25-30+ degree temperature drop near me in about nine hours as well right at the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: Icon is a blizzard for Minnesota. Look at that thermal gradient through our region next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Didn’t know the icon was so reliable lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, jets said: Didn’t know the icon was so reliable lol LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The gfs is about to look nothing like the Icon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The gfs is about to look nothing like the Icon lol the CMC looks like it will cut big time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gfs is going to be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 CMC over MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is going to be big It will be better than the CMC no matter what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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