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December 2022


dmillz25
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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Starting to wonder if eastern areas could turn to rain if there's a full capture. 

Like that one storm that gave us snow and skunked central & eastern SNE

Feb 2010. I am technically in New England and rained all day and night until the next morning when the storm occluded. Ended up with 8 inches of snow on the back end after a day of rain!

Air mass will be colder on this storm too.

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A complex storm will continue to bring a cold rain to coastal regions tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50"-1.50" with locally higher amounts is likely. Interior sections could see some additional accumulating snow. An area of moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central Pennsylvania to central New York State.

The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 and December 27-January 2 periods. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. Afterward, as the PNA goes neutral, the prospect for snowfall and more significant cold could increase. Already, the guidance is showing an increased change of snow for the December 22-24 timeframe.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +4.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.216 today. December 1-15 has experienced the strongest AO block on record for the first half of December. The AO averaged a preliminary -2.908 (old record: -2.138, 1985) with 8 days at or below -3.000 (old record: 6 days, 1966).

On December 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The December 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.070 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (1.2° below normal).

 

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