Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Gfs 970 off cape cod next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Oh man, this is really nice! This winter may end up being something really special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs 970 off cape cod next week Closer to the coast but everyone gets alot of snow next weekend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Weeklies show a nice January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 What a monster on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: This winter may end up being something really special. It's got a shot. That's why I cut the punter from my team this year in November lol. We'll see how it goes. No issues for me just yet. Looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Closer to the coast but everyone gets alot of snow next weekend Starting to wonder if eastern areas could turn to rain if there's a full capture. Like that one storm that gave us snow and skunked central & eastern SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Starting to wonder if eastern areas could turn to rain if there's a full capture. Like that one storm that gave us snow and skunked central & eastern SNE Feb 2010 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Starting to wonder if eastern areas could turn to rain if there's a full capture. Like that one storm that gave us snow and skunked central & eastern SNE It does turn to rain for LI on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Starting to wonder if eastern areas could turn to rain if there's a full capture. Like that one storm that gave us snow and skunked central & eastern SNE Feb 2010. I am technically in New England and rained all day and night until the next morning when the storm occluded. Ended up with 8 inches of snow on the back end after a day of rain! Air mass will be colder on this storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It does turn to rain for LI on the gfs Could end up a good old fashioned 6 to 10 with a changeover. Just for fun for both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Way too far out but would be more worried about supresssion than rain at this point given the pattern and level of cold air in place but I could be wrong about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Starting to wonder if eastern areas could turn to rain if there's a full capture. Like that one storm that gave us snow and skunked central & eastern SNE 12/30/00 did exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Way too far out but would be more worried about supresssion than rain at this point given the pattern and level of cold air in place but I could be wrong about that. Anythings on the table 8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Im just going based on statistics here. If you’re in the bullseye 8 days out that’s a bad sign that being said when’s the next GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It does turn to rain for LI on the gfs let's not tempt ourselves with ideal scenarios just yet 2 1 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Insane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Textbook. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ugh accuweathers already hyping it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Closer to the coast but everyone gets alot of snow next weekend Merry Christmas Ant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ugh accuweathers already hyping it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Mr. Rayno believes this is going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 A complex storm will continue to bring a cold rain to coastal regions tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50"-1.50" with locally higher amounts is likely. Interior sections could see some additional accumulating snow. An area of moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central Pennsylvania to central New York State. The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 and December 27-January 2 periods. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. Afterward, as the PNA goes neutral, the prospect for snowfall and more significant cold could increase. Already, the guidance is showing an increased change of snow for the December 22-24 timeframe. The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +4.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.216 today. December 1-15 has experienced the strongest AO block on record for the first half of December. The AO averaged a preliminary -2.908 (old record: -2.138, 1985) with 8 days at or below -3.000 (old record: 6 days, 1966). On December 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The December 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.070 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (1.2° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 35 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Mr. Rayno believes this is going to cut. Into the Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Into the Lakes? Western Pa. Said storms up the cost are not typical in dec. they are more typical Jan/feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Western Pa Inland, sure. Into western PA, ehhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That guy is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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