SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, winterwx21 said: Euro is early with the timing. It has a low that brushes us with some snow on thursday the 22nd. Good enough at this timeframe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only thing that we can say about the 12z Euro is it looks west of the GFS through 144hrs with the trough digging a little more near the PACNW. If it's another coastal hugger it proves something I've seen.... once you get a coastal hugger early in the season you usually see a lot of coastal huggers that season. If you wanted a true change to a BM stormtrack, you need an extreme cutter first-- something like Jan 1978 OV bomb variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only thing that we can say about the 12z Euro is it looks westof the GFS through 144hrs with the trough digging a little more ne 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Euro is early with the timing. It has a low that brushes us with some snow on thursday the 22nd. EURO looks much better to me than last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, mikem81 said: It looks much better than 0Z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: If it's another coastal hugger it proves something I've seen.... once you get a coastal hugger early in the season you usually see a lot of coastal huggers that season. If you wanted a true change to a BM stormtrack, you need an extreme cutter first-- something like Jan 1977 OV bomb variety. We're only getting a coastal hugger today because the primary is in the lakes. Actually if it weren't for the block we'd probably be in the 60s today with a wound up cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: It looks much better than 0Z: Its a solid snowstorm on the euro..4 to 8" variety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The capture is too late this run for a really big one for us but at least the storm signal is there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Yeah I think the timing of the capture will be what models waver on for the next several days. Interestingly enough they both (Euro & GFS) have the PNA recycling which means another storm is possible after this one. If so that'd be very reminiscent of 2010 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The capture is too late this run to really work for us but at least the storm signal is there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Euro has a classic progression. all that really needs to be said here... the potential is through the roof 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Next Friday on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I'd care a lot more about the upper air setup, ensembles and the storm signal at this stage. Tracks over the BM, more minute details like when/if any capture happens we won't know for several days. Even 72hrs out it can be very fickle. But this has the hallmark of something that can work out very very well for us if it comes together. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 EPS mean track looks great. It will be interesting to see what the clusters show. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: EPS mean track looks great. It will be interesting to see what the clusters show. un-freaking-real 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Next Friday on the Euro Looks like the 0z run, not current 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Next Friday on the Euro Holy ***** 20" in the Poconos from this far out on top of the 12"+ expected from the current storm is going to require a team to plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxman said: Looks like the 0z run, not current 12z. It does say 0z run at the top, whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Here is 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It does say 0z run at the top, whoops My bad- it was the 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: EPS mean track looks great. It will be interesting to see what the clusters show. Looks like a cluster going west of us. Another tracking right over And still more near or just east of the BM. The one common denominator is most of them are sub 980mb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like a cluster going west of us. Another tracking right over And still more near or just east of the BM. The one common denominator is most of them are sub 980mb. We want this to be weaker correct? The weaker it is the less apt it would be to track inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: My bad- it was the 0z. The 12z has saner snowfall amounts lol, looks like less than a foot everywhere (but still decent 6-10 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We want this to be weaker correct? The weaker it is the less apt it would be to track inland. Yeah, the weaker cluster is the one to the west with fewer lows. The most populated clusters track right over us or near the BM. Several lows in the 950s to 970s is unusual for this far out. So a high impact storm signal either way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 wont get excited for this one yet, things always look great a week out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, EasternLI said: That there is about as tasty as it comes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: That there is about as tasty as it comes. More chances to come too. This is the first real chance lol. Right on time too, if you ask me. With winter just beginning on the 21st. Met winter is just for bookkeeping IMO. This is playing out nicely. We may need to make some stops for pickups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: More chances to come too. This is the first real chance lol. Right on time too, if you ask me. With winter just beginning on the 21st. Met winter is just for bookkeeping IMO. This is playing out nicely. We may need to make some stops for pickups. You might need to turn that bus into a train to fit more onboard. CHOO CHOO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Big time Aleutian low paired with big time Scandinavian ridge is looking very stout indeed. The strat vortex is going to be facing big big trouble... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Oh man, this is really nice! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Hip-Hip-Hooray. Look who just found out about the Christmas Party: It's Ensemble is almost 100% now for at least 1" before the year ends. Lol We might want to start hyping single digits near Christmas, instead of the snow. Some chance here for single digits Christmas AM: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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