bluewave Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This would be a new 500 mb amplitude record if it wound up verifying. The OP Euro has a near record PV just to our SW at -5.8 SD. The block at the pole is also in near record territory at +6.5 SD. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if that diving s/w captures the secondary in time we'll get crushed It helps that the AO may go even lower than we've seen this week. Double lows below -4 in December? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 the EPS has trended much more favorably with the blocking and the resulting confluence. this increases the chance of the 500mb ULL to slip underneath and really raises the ceiling 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 most of the members are now offshore as a result 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: most of the members are now offshore as a result All you can ask for 9 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 We would need for the diving PV to get out near the benchmark like in February 1978 to make people happy. The alternative is it gets stuck over land like January 1978 and we are on the warm side for much of the precipitation. Either way, it should get really cold behind the storm. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/jan2427_1978_500_loop.gif http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb58_1978_500_loop.gif 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 That Jan 78 storm was the Cleveland blizzard right? We rained on top of the initial blizzard that fell a week earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I hope it occurs before Xmas eve if it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This is what makes weather so great. Nuances that can be the difference between a monster snowstorm or wind driven rain. Keeps us tuning back in again and again. Love it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I hope it occurs before Xmas eve if it does. Yes right now the timing for the potential storm is late thursday into friday, well before Xmas eve. Then just bitter cold for Christmas weekend. High temps might not get out of the 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yes right now the timing for the potential storm is late thursday into friday, well before Xmas eve. Then just bitter cold for Christmas weekend. High temps might not get out of the 20s. when i was a kid bitter cold in the daytime meant temps in the teens.. or on rare occasions single digits 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: when i was a kid bitter cold in the daytime meant temps in the teens.. or on rare occasions single digits Yeah standards have changed. Now high temps in the 20s seems like bitter cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Ideally we want a weak Niño which is better for snow than neutral, right? And I think I’ve read a Modoki is even better, and that a Niña following a Niño is good as well? What would be the mechanism for the latter question; how would the ENSO state from a year prior impact a new Niña? Or is it just something that emerged statistically? Apologies for the barrage of questions, this is very interesting. There's never anything perfect. It's more about getting a favorable collection of variables. La nina and el nino are fine, for the area. As long as it's not one of the super variety. Neutral can be problematic. But it's that, plus everything else going on in the envelope of that, as well. This year? We have an extremely interesting set of variables.... The formation question, is complicated. There are a lot of factors that go into that. That's something that's constantly under further research, at least as far as I've seen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: That Jan 78 storm was the Cleveland blizzard right? We rained on top of the initial blizzard that fell a week earlier? That’s the one. We did get rained on however we had a tremendous wind storm after the passage of the frontal trough. If an analysis was done of the pressure fields associated with this event I believe that the conclusion would be that the winds were caused by a sting jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Waaay out there, but hints of the anomalous ridge retrograding to Scandinavia/Urals. With an anomalous Aleutian low? That would be terrible news for the vortex. Looking forward to it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 we're getting at least one KU imo 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're getting at least one KU imo ditto 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ditto i'm so impressed by this trend. even the 23rd might work out 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm so impressed by this trend. even the 23rd might work out In Forky we trust. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm so impressed by this trend. even the 23rd might work out i really like the 23rd now that the block has gotten stronger. completely flipped the downstream pattern - went from a WAR to a 50/50 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm so impressed by this trend. even the 23rd might work out Super -EPO/-AO with a strengthening west based -NAO my goodness 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 HM agrees with Forky 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Gfs looks good at 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 That was so close to the big one on the GFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: That was so close to the big one on the GFS. Sure was. Worth watching for sure. Especially after seeing that eps today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That was so close to the big one on the GFS. i want the gfs to show a low over the azores 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i want the gfs to show a low over the azores It will on the 12z GFS hr. 36 panel next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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