December 2022

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I miss the winters from the early 2000s and of course 2009-2010.

Lots of great storms, but I think 2010 to 2019 actually had higher accums or at least equal.

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We improve the pac but loose the Atlantic. I don’t like how the snow means are greater out in the ocean 

Which guidance looses blocking?

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I miss the winters from the early 2000s and of course 2009-2010.

We're too far gone to see those again or 13/14 & 14/15

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're too far gone to see those again or 13/14 & 14/15

I mean we just had 20/21 which was above average.

We just had bad winters 3 of last 4 years. We had 7 below average snowfall winters in the 90s with 4 in a row at the end with endless warmth.

I guarantee we WILL see another 01/02, 13/14, etc. It's all just patterns/cyclical. 

May they be a half a degree warmer, of course, but they are not gone. 

[brooklynwx99]

what three Ninas in a row will do to some mfs

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what three Ninas in a row will do to some mfs

And one of them, 2 years ago, was above average snowfall with a monster snowstorm.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. I think our northern suburbs can do really well with the 23rd storm as the air mass ahead will be a little colder. 

After this storm the Arctic is unleashed. 

I really feel that suppression will be our biggest concern after Christmas

If suppression does turn out to be an issue after Christmas, then this December would be one of the low NYC low snowfall outliers for the AO dipping below -3 since 2000.

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If suppression does turn out to be an issue after Christmas, then this December would be one of the low NYC low snowfall outliers for the AO dipping below -3 since 2000.

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

 

I think this year could end up like 12-13 vs 01-02

[Eduardo]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think this year could end up like 12-13 vs 01-02

We’ll see.  If that block slingshots over to Siberia, it’s gonna get real boring around here for a bit.

I’m def done with these Niña, PAC trash winters.  Hopefully we shake things up soon!

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

We’ll see.  If that block slingshots over to Siberia, it’s gonna get real boring around here for a bit.

I’m def done with these Niña, PAC trash winters.  Hopefully we shake things up soon!

Or we have a la Nina like 2 years ago and we are above average!

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like another month with the coldest departures from the PACNW to Minnesota.

 

You can just about mail in a cold winter forecast for the PAC NW and N Plains these days. And as far as the forecast goes that doesn’t look to be changing. 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think this year could end up like 12-13 vs 01-02

Oh God I hope 12/13. Solid above average snowfall winter with a great February and March.

I would not worry about 01/02 that was really really dry. The entire setup is different. 12/13 is actually fairly close.

[EastonSN+]

Hey, if the fact that we only had one minor snowfall event so far is depressing some, just think of how bad 2010/2011 and 00/01 we're, we had not snowfall yet in either of those winters by this date! 

[ag3]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey, if the fact that we only had one minor snowfall event so far is depressing some, just think of how bad 2010/2011 and 00/01 we're, we had not snowfall yet in either of those winters by this date! 

 

Dec. 2010 had 3-4 coatings and then Boxing Day.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, ag3 said:

 

Dec. 2010 had 3-4 coatings and then Boxing Day.

Where I was had nothing but dustings. This year already at 1.5

[MJO812]

Great spot on gfs and still rain for this weekends storm.

[brooklynwx99]

I will take my chances 10/10 times with this look. the potential is sky high here

 

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where I was had nothing but dustings. This year already at 1.5

Central Park had .1" as of Christmas day

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I will take my chances 10/10 times with this look. the potential is sky high here

 

Totally agree 10/10.  Would just like to see the ridge axis more over the inter mountain region.  Too far west for my liking but WAY early and I'm not taking a 183 hour prog verbatim.

[donsutherland1]

The Block that "Disappointed"

During December 13-29, 1950, a period of exceptionally strong Atlantic blocking coincided with a positive PNA. Although the number of measurable snowfall events wound up above historic climatology for the period, there were no major snowstorms in the Philadelphia to New York City area. There was a light to moderate event on December 26 as Arctic air poured into the region. There was a "near miss" on December 29, as a storm developed offshore but readings were too warm for snowfall. On January 7, 1951, Boston picked up 7.6" of snow.

This period of strong blocking occurred during a La Niña. It offers a reminder that even patterns that are often associated with heavy snowfall can wind up with less snowy outcomes.

The outcome of what lies ahead for December 2022 remains to be determined.  This short analysis is not a prediction of any kind of how the current blocking episode will unfold as the PNA moves toward neutral and then positive levels during the closing 7-10 days of the month. Although, the December 15-16 storm won't deliver snowfall to the Philadelphia to Boston region, another storm could bring precipitation during the December 23-24 period.

Below are some statistics from New York City and charts from the December 13-29, 1950 blocking episode.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

I'll take a light to moderate event 2 days before Christmas (similar to 98)

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'll take a light to moderate event 2 days before Christmas (similar to 98)

NYC hasn’t had 1”+ of snow in the week leading up to Christmas since 2008 and 2009.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 19 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2021-12-25	0.2	0
2020-12-25	T	0
2019-12-25	0.0	0
2018-12-25	T	0
2017-12-25	T	0
2016-12-25	0.0	0
2015-12-25	0.0	0
2014-12-25	T	0
2013-12-25	T	0
2012-12-25	T	0
2011-12-25	0.0	0
2010-12-25	0.0	0
2009-12-25	10.9	0
2008-12-25	4.7	0

 

[mikem81]

Next week's storm has a much different evolution than tomorrow's. It almost looks like a redeveloping clipper that comes out of canada in front of the artic front. It also has a much colder airmass in front of it than today's. Who knows what it will bring.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

We’ll see.  If that block slingshots over to Siberia, it’s gonna get real boring around here for a bit.

I’m def done with these Niña, PAC trash winters.  Hopefully we shake things up soon!

Can't El Nino also hurt us if it's too strong? I feel like we'll be at risk of swinging from a persistent Nina to a powerful Nino like 2016 and just torch anyway.

Of course I'm probably, hopefully wrong.

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Can't El Nino also hurt us if it's too strong? I feel like we'll be at risk of swinging from a persistent Nina to a powerful Nino like 2016 and just torch anyway.

Of course I'm probably, hopefully wrong.

But at least then we have a shot at something big like 83 or 2016 rather than 98

[Volcanic Winter]

Ideally we want a weak Niño which is better for snow than neutral, right? And I think I’ve read a Modoki is even better, and that a Niña following a Niño is good as well?

What would be the mechanism for the latter question; how would the ENSO state from a year prior impact a new Niña? Or is it just something that emerged statistically?

Apologies for the barrage of questions, this is very interesting. 

[MJO812]

  Very cold Christmas coming

[MANDA]

Just for kicks compare the 12Z EURO from yesterday to 12Z run today at 500 over the eastern U.S.  Just tremendous swings on all the guidance of late.  Will see what ensembles show for 12/22 - 12/23 event.  Would like the western ridge to be move over the Rockies but ways off and things will change.  Hopefully in our favor so the coast can cash in on something before Christmas.  Inland certainly in the game at this point.

[Volcanic Winter]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

  Very cold Christmas coming

I’m here for it. I dare it to make me break out my down parka. 

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Just for kicks compare the 12Z EURO from yesterday to 12Z run today at 500 over the eastern U.S.  Just tremendous swings on all the guidance of late.  Will see what ensembles show for 12/22 - 12/23 event.  Would like the western ridge to be move over the Rockies but ways off and things will change.  Hopefully in our favor so the coast can cash in on something before Christmas.  Inland certainly in the game at this point.

if that diving s/w captures the secondary in time we'll get crushed