Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hard to answer without being long winded. In short: I vastly prefer cold weather to warm and I’m saddened by the way our Decembers have trended. The rate of warming is most during December IIRC and every torched day is a reminder of where we’re heading. What I would do or not do differently doesn’t factor into it, though my wife and I are hikers but prefer cold weather / winter hiking. We just got back from a two week hiking trip to the northern part of Iceland, our fourth time there. We live in a part of the country with pronounced seasonality; reminders that we’re losing part of our historical winters makes me sad. Doubly and triply so when that falls on the biggest holiday, partly derived from Yule - a strictly winter affair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Hard to answer without being long winded. In short: I vastly prefer cold weather to warm and I’m saddened by the way our Decembers have trended. The rate of warming is most during December IIRC and every torched day is a reminder of where we’re heading. What I would do or not do differently doesn’t factor into it, though my wife and I are hikers but prefer cold weather / winter hiking. We just got back from a two week hiking trip to the northern part of Iceland, our fourth time there. We live in a part of the country with pronounced seasonality; reminders that we’re losing part of our historical winters makes me sad. Yep I get it. Went to Iceland last Dec-did the SW section-incredible. Had a +NAO so was cloudy/snowy/rainy depending on locale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Yep I get it. Went to Iceland last Dec-did the SW section-incredible. Had a +NAO so was cloudy/snowy/rainy depending on locale. It’s an absurdly beautiful country (especially as a geology nerd, along with Hawaii it’s the pinnacle of basaltic volcanism on earth). I’ll post some pics of the north later in the banter thread. Edit: Imgur album here https://imgur.com/a/2PJs7CB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Temps already dropping to the upper teens in some mid Hudson Valley locations over to western New England. That snow pack makes the temps drop fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, lee59 said: Temps already dropping to the upper teens in some mid Hudson Valley locations over to western New England. That snow pack makes the temps drop fast. Hmm, I'm already at 26. Not bad for the coast. Jealous of them, though. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 As frustrating as this pattern has been so far this is promising. The key will be getting the pacific to cooperate as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: It’s an absurdly beautiful country (especially as a geology nerd, along with Hawaii it’s the pinnacle of basaltic volcanism on earth). I’ll post some pics of the north later in the banter thread. Edit: Imgur album here https://imgur.com/a/2PJs7CB Incredible. Amazing at 1pm the sun was barely above the horizon...extended twilight in the morning and PM with the oblique angle the sun rises/sets at..... Wished we could have seen the northern lights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Temps already dropping to the upper teens in some mid Hudson Valley locations over to western New England. That snow pack makes the temps drop fast. It does, plus clear skies and calm wind. Got down to 10 last night and right now 19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Beats the last one they put out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Hi, I was just wondering why models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling? GFS is known for this according to my research? Anyone underestimate this happening on our next system or it's all rain for anybody south of 287?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Tonight will be another fair and cold night. By Thursday, a complex storm could bring a cold rain or snow changing to rain to coastal regions into Friday. Interior sections could see accumulating snow before any changeover. The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall from central Pennsylvania across central New York State. The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 and December 27-January 2 periods. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. Afterward, as the PNA goes neutral, the prospect for snowfall and more significant cold could increase. The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was -0.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.854 today. On December 11 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.306 (RMM). The December 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.394 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.5° (0.6° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: Hi, I was just wondering why models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling? GFS is known for this according to my research? Anyone underestimate this happening on our next system or it's all rain for anybody south of 287? . All models do. If you look at MOS numbers in a situation where you're going from rain to snow you'll see it showing numbers like 40/40 39/36 38/32 38/30 37/29 hour by hour for temp, dewpoint when in reality you'll progress 40/40 38/36 34/32 31/31 30/30...as for why they do it I am not sure, you'd think the components entered into models would be able to perceive surface temps dropping due to precipitation...to a degree the LAMP MOS sometimes can resolve it but not well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS looking a lot better tonight. Has a solid PNA ridge Would be nice if Euro trended that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS looking a lot better tonight. Has a solid PNA ridge Would be nice if Euro trended that way Fwiw, the eps looked nothing like the euro op at 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny but cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 42° A soaking rain will develop tomorrow in the coastal plain. Interior sections will likely see snow changing to rain. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 45.3° Newark: 30-Year: 45.1°; 15-Year: 46.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.3°; 15-Year: 47.2° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Dropped down to 28 overnite after a high of 38F yesterday. One of the radio mets this AM mentioned that Block Island and E. Long Island seen some ocean effect snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Incredible. Amazing at 1pm the sun was barely above the horizon...extended twilight in the morning and PM with the oblique angle the sun rises/sets at..... Wished we could have seen the northern lights. I spent a summer in AK and it was cool to see the sun just barely get down to the horizon overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like another month with the coldest departures from the PACNW to Minnesota. I do not think there will be a significant pattern change until the parade of storms into the Pacific NW comes to an end. At this point it is anyone's guess when that will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS and OP are more in line at 0z. Primary low into the Great Lakes with the secondary tracking over NYC. So the storm system before Christmas looks similar to the one tomorrow. Agreed. I think our northern suburbs can do really well with the 23rd storm as the air mass ahead will be a little colder. After this storm the Arctic is unleashed. I really feel that suppression will be our biggest concern after Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(31/38) or -1. Chance for at least 1" of snow still going nowhere: It is 0% here till the 22nd. Good News for Christmas, T wise however, >>> Avg. 16degs.(12/20)! Month to date is 42.0[+0.6]. Should be 39.3[+0.2] by the 23rd. Reached 39 here yesterday. Today: 36-39, wind nw. to ne.-breezy early, m. sunny, 34 tomorrow AM. 32*(60%RH) here at 7am. 31* at 8am. 34* at Noon. 36* at 1pm. 37* at 2pm Reached 39* at 3pm. 38* at 5pm. 36^ at 10pm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS and OP are more in line at 0z. Primary low into the Great Lakes with the secondary tracking over NYC. So the storm system before Christmas looks similar to the one tomorrow. The GFS has the secondary low out in the Atlantic. Lots of variability 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 If this look verifies WOW for NYS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. I think our northern suburbs can do really well with the 23rd storm as the air mass ahead will be a little colder. After this storm the Arctic is unleashed. I really feel that suppression will be our biggest concern after Christmas We improve the pac but loose the Atlantic. I don’t like how the snow means are greater out in the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We improve the pac but loose the Atlantic. I don’t like how the snow means are greater out in the ocean Good Rather take my chance with an improving pac. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good Rather take my chance with an improving pac. Facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: Facts We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA Nina going to Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nina going to Nina I miss the winters from the early 2000s and of course 2009-2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS and OP are more in line at 0z. Primary low into the Great Lakes with the secondary tracking over NYC. So the storm system before Christmas looks similar to the one tomorrow. I'll take this over the 12Z OP EURO from yesterday. Not ideal but at least we don't torch over Christmas weekend. Nice to see the OP and EPS in better sync overnight. That is true Arctic HP extending into the nations mid-section. Will spread / ooze eastward but by far the direct discharge is down the front range into the plains and down to Texas. I'd rather this honestly. More direct discharge into the east leads to suppression and cold and dry. This opens the door for opportunity with the 12/22 - 12/23 event, at least inland and then perhaps beyond for larger part of this forum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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