Dark Star Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Ha of course-you're down to 6 weeks or so at that point.... Totally agree. If by the end of January the pattern shows little prospect, you can begin to write off winter. There are exceptions of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 01-02 and 11-12 the benchmarks for awful winters each had a 4 inch storm around 1/20. It was a 10 day winter both of those years. We were in the 70's and 80's by March lol. 72-73, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 though I actually rank 01-02 as the worst because it was also much warmer than the others and predicted to be very cold and snowy lol. 01-02 to 02-03 has to be one of the greatest improvements of all time though and the whole era from 96-97 to 01-02 was horrible outside of 00-01 which also ended on a sour note because of March 2001. But 02-03 through 05-06 (really through 04-05) made it all worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I think Bluewave pondered this a couple weeks ago when I asked, but I do wonder how much longer elevated SST’s will help us rather than start to hurt. Eventually it’s going to be too much thermal energy offshore and we’re going to be too warm at the coast. Did someone mention that the elevated SST’s has to do with rising overnight lows and dew points? Yes that's true. And the best way to find out what the turning point might be is to see how far down the coast we see regular coastal snowstorms. I think Norfolk is the turning point. When our SST get warmer than what they usually are around Norfolk then we're in trouble (we're talking about the most recent 30 year climo period baseline, obviously Norfolk area SST will warm too.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: you just need northerly winds really. We had a big storm post Sanday in early Nov but winds were out of the NNE. Yeah it was funny to see LGA mixing while JFK was all snow and a very heavy wet snow at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Torch water + Cold and stormy Later in the season yes, the warm water is fuel. This early no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I think Bluewave pondered this a couple weeks ago when I asked, but I do wonder how much longer elevated SST’s will help us rather than start to hurt. Eventually it’s going to be too much thermal energy offshore and we’re going to be too warm at the coast. Did someone mention that the elevated SST’s has to do with rising overnight lows and dew points? The record SSTs in December 2020 along with the 500 mb pattern probably caused us to miss the 40” jackpot which ended up in Binghamton. The low was too tucked in for those amounts near the coast. But the historic January 2016 blizzard was able to feed off those same record SSTs. So the colder readings a month later plus the flatter SE Ridge and BM track worked to our advantage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Big storm signal near Christmas on the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Big storm signal near Christmas on the models yay more rain 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: yay more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 After Christmas was the forecast, that storm is before (Although this one has a higher likelihood of starting as some snow). Steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Big storm signal near Christmas on the models I think that's the period to watch. Another AO drop and PNA goes up. I could care less what a day 10 ops run shows. If it showed a blizzard people would say it's wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Would like to see the MA get hammered even if we flip from snow to rain. I think the 70s and 80s had a lot of these (stemwinders). I think the last one was January 2000? Becoming extinct like the clipper. I know I know 10 to 1 240 hour snow maps but using for illustration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: This. We started Dec 5-7 now we are pushing Xmas with anything decent. No one mentioned anything good about early December though. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Everyone, please take 5-10 minutes to read the posts from late November..... After mid month seemed to be the consensus 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12z CMC has the pre-Christmas threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: yay more rain Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 For all the torch/bad winter/warm water/missed chances posts…Belleayre today 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lot of pieces here, and they look like they can come together to produce some significant upside. at this point, it would be late December, and climo is much more favorable than it is now along the coast this is the highly anomalous ridge that is going to form as a result of the +EAMT that is going to take place over the next several days. notice how this ridge extends and cuts off into the Beaufort Sea. this is important because it both establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and it displaces the TPV, which I'll get to in a bit this is the west-based -NAO blocking that forms as a result of this week's system. the Miller B that forms on Friday forces very warm air into the Davis Strait, which helps create a transient block that then decays over this region. this kind of decaying block over the Davis Strait is a precursor to some of our largest storms this is the TPV that has been displaced by the ridging I talked about earlier. this serves to deliver very cold air to the NE US ahead of the potential storm, and it also plays a very important role in establishing confluent flow over SE Canada... it could act as a kind of 50/50 ULL, which is also why the block is so important. both of them work in tandem to deliver HP to SE Canada and prevent a cutter finally, this is the shortwave that is beginning to get picked out by modeling. this is a very vigorous signal for this far out, but it makes sense given the entire hemisphere forcing it into existence given the +EAMT and extension of the Pacific jet. this would roll off of the ridge and downstream into the confluent flow forced by the TPV and transient blocking so, overall, there is a lot here to like. pretty much every piece is in place for a large-scale event around this time. now, there are obviously a lot of caveats at this range, as one would expect, and there is a possibility that something like the GFS OP plays out and it rains on everyone. I kind of have to favor inland regions, but that by no means rules anyone out when I see this kind of longwave configuration, it does get me a bit excited. all of the pieces are in place, so we'll see how it plays out over the next week or so 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z OP Euro has a -PNA trough in the West so it’s warmer than the GFS and CMC before Christmas. The block on the Euro is too close to Siberia to work for us. We’ll see what the guidance comes up with going forward. Euro is a disaster for us but very plausible in a well coupled Nina. I don't think there's anything more important than a +PNA in 1st half of winter if you want snow. No amount of Atlantic blocking will supercede it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Yeah the 12z Euro is a big warm cutter for the storm a few days before Christmas (next thursday). Rain all the way up into Canada. Of course at 9 days away, there's plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z OP Euro has a -PNA trough in the West so it’s warmer than the GFS and CMC before Christmas. The block on the Euro is too close to Siberia to work for us. We’ll see what the guidance comes up with going forward. No reason to discount the persistent trough in the west. Those 10 day plus ensemble maps are useless and not a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: No reason to discount the persistent trough in the west. Those 10 day plus ensemble maps are useless and not a reason. If Euro is right then December is done but we are talking about a Day 9-10 op run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 EPS looks nothing like the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If Euro is right then December is done but we are talking about a Day 9-10 op run I was full on board for an interesting period 12/20 - 12/31. That has always been my target period of interest. EURO is concerning I have to say. Going to take a wild swing to get rid of the western trof and southeast / eastern ridge. That OP EURO taken verbatim is a disaster. If it is showing a similar solution 3 days from now for the Christmas period we are in trouble and may have to face the fact the the U.S. east of the Mississippi may not benefit from all this blocking. Have said all along we need the +PNA, however weak to benefit. Will be interested to see the ensembles shortly. System on Thursday is not going deliver any meaningful snow to the vast majority of this forum. Along and north of Rt. 80 / west of 287 into interior southeast NY and CT have a decent chance of 1-3" or 2-4" amounts especially higher elevations. Overall I'm thinking amounts less than or equal to what fell on Sunday. We'll see but I'm getting concerned for the last third of the month delivering what we're all wanting. Not closing the door just yet but this is not what I expected to see at this date for 10 days out. What I am fairly confident about is a first class Arctic outbreak coming into the U.S. down the front range of the Rockies and out onto the plains and south into Texas. Perhaps rivaling some of the great Arctic blasts. Perhaps near record high pressure nosing southeast from the high Arctic into the central U.S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro is a disaster for us but very plausible in a well coupled Nina. I don't think there's anything more important than a +PNA in 1st half of winter if you want snow. No amount of Atlantic blocking will supercede it The big block pulling back to Siberia could allow more of a Western Trough like the OP or one in the Plains like the EPS. While we would avoid the big OP warm up before Christmas on the EPS, still have to deal with that Great Lakes primary low. Any secondary development near the coast would probably favor the interior like we are seeing for Friday. Need a slower retrogression of the block back into the WPO domain to keep the heights up along the West Coast. Too fast an EPO rise could allow the PV to dig more out West. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Eps and gefs are now both pushing the tropical signal into the Pacific harder. Re-energized. I hope you all get winter coats for Christmas. Say goodbye to the SPV too, if that goes off as strong as it's looking. We'll revisit next month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM ROSSBY: gets worse before................. ............WE'RE SORRY UPS LOST YOUR X-MAS PACKAGE---PLEASE ACCEPT A SUBSTITUTE: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 At this point I don’t care about anything other than not torching for Xmas and Xmas Eve. Give me at least seasonable cold and I’ll be grateful. Looking good that least we’ll hopefully hit that mark. Glorious snow would be a bonus, but I’ll take the cold and run with it as a step one. Lots of winter ahead of us to get the ducks in a row properly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: At this point I don’t care about anything other than not torching for Xmas and Xmas Eve. Give me at least seasonable cold and I’ll be grateful. Looking good that least we’ll hopefully hit that mark. Glorious snow would be a bonus, but I’ll take the cold and run with it as a step one. Lots of winter ahead of us to get the ducks in a row properly. Does it really matter? Xmas is an indoor holiday for our part of the country....what would you do differently if it's 30 out vs 55 out? - snow is obviously a different story I'm strictly talking temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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