eduggs Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 There looks to be some longshot potential for something wintry mid to late week next week. Some encouraging hints on the op runs, but nothing specific to get excited about yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 17 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I thought NYC did good I'm 2018. At least 2 6 plus events. Maybe I am mistaken. Would have been 2 foot plus events in the heart of winter though And there was the one in early April which might have been 2 feet in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 On 11/28/2022 at 1:25 PM, bluewave said: You are thinking of 1779-1780 when Philly may have had one day above freezing in January which hasn’t happened since then. 10 feet of snow in the Poconos near Stroudsburg! Question-- the end of the excerpt cut off talking about it being "the only winter in recorded American history during which the waters surrounding"....does that mean the SST was below freezing in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 hours ago, eduggs said: There looks to be some longshot potential for something wintry mid to late week next week. Some encouraging hints on the op runs, but nothing specific to get excited about yet. There is alot to get excited about on all the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 hours ago, eduggs said: The polar jet remains pretty far north even in the extended on the ensembles despite the blocking regime. Which is favorable during a Nina. Unless you like cold/dry and a suppressed storm track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 hours ago, eduggs said: It would be nice to at least have something trackable as we head into December. The polar jet remains pretty far north even in the extended on the ensembles despite the blocking regime. Which we need 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 hmmm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: hmmm Big flip in the right direction on the gefs Seems like our 1st threat might be mid December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 . 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Think about where we were last year at this time and what we were facing. It was my first winter with you guys and I remember hours of doom scrolling as Dec rolled on. Considering Boxing Day is my favorite blizzard of my lifetime for many reasons (including because I spent it snowed in with my future wife in our new apartment), this is definitely an exciting feeling. Of course we may not get anything that major, but the fact that we potentially could is exciting enough. If a stratwarm does occur I wonder if that will be tied back to the major stratospheric cooling in the SH from Hunga Tonga, as per that article that circulated a while back. Maybe, maybe not. But I like where we’re at right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 For reference as the hemispheric pattern continues to evolve toward a very blocky pattern. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 37 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Think about where we were last year at this time and what we were facing. It was my first winter with you guys and I remember hours of doom scrolling as Dec rolled on. Considering Boxing Day is my favorite blizzard of my lifetime for many reasons (including because I spent it snowed in with my future wife in our new apartment), this is definitely an exciting feeling. Of course we may not get anything that major, but the fact that we potentially could is exciting enough. If a stratwarm does occur I wonder if that will be tied back to the major stratospheric cooling in the SH from Hunga Tonga, as per that article that circulated a while back. Maybe, maybe not. But I like where we’re at right now. Boxing Day was a top storm. The way it blew up in the middle of Xmas Day was what made it cool. The fact that the mayor was out of town, and the sanitation workers, and the mayor had something going on also led to a prolonged period of being “shut in” like a much larger storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference as the hemispheric pattern continues to evolve toward a very blocky pattern. Coming pattern looks closer to one that favored all 3 cities picking up 6"+ Also seeing AO forecast dip below 3 for December. Usually a good sign for winter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 hopefully not too much blocking or northern parts of the subforum could be in trouble. 12/19/09 was a good example of that... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Yeah 09/10 was razor thin. Living in Norwalk at the time ended up with above average snowfall (42), however was just a few miles away from 10/11 type totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 this is the EPS compared to the pattern 7 days before 18"+ snowstorms in NYC, which includes storms like 1996, 2016, and BDB you guys can make of this what you will 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah 09/10 was razor thin. Living in Norwalk at the time ended up with above average snowfall (42), however was just a few miles away from 10/11 type totals. And like 00-01, 10-11 wasn't great sw of Philly. Boxing day was 50-100 miles from being a run of the mill 6" storm in NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And like 00-01, 10-11 wasn't great sw of Philly. Boxing day was 50-100 miles from being a run of the mill 6" storm in NYC that's how those storms are 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the EPS compared to the pattern 7 days before 18"+ snowstorms in NYC, which includes storms like 1996, 2016, and BDB you guys can make of this what you will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Coming pattern looks closer to one that favored all 3 cities picking up 6"+ Also seeing AO forecast dip below 3 for December. Usually a good sign for winter I agree. If the pattern evolves as forecast, there will be a lot of potential. I'm looking forward to it. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hopefully not too much blocking or northern parts of the subforum could be in trouble. 12/19/09 was a good example of that... I'm not worried about that when PNA is still negative to neutral and Nina forcing tends to keep heights low out west. This is a lot closer to 10-11 than 09-10 which was also a big Nino year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Gfs brings the pattern change in earlier next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I need to see @bluewave on board for me to get interested 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the EPS compared to the pattern 7 days before 18"+ snowstorms in NYC, which includes storms like 1996, 2016, and BDB you guys can make of this what you will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen. Yep exactly what happened in Dec 2010. That storm came as the pattern relaxed-we torched a bit after that before it reloaded around 1/10 or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 What a pattern on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a pattern on the gfs LOL 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a pattern on the gfs Yep it sure is. Multiple threats during the run with the big snow bomb out in fantasy land for good measure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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