LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: What's funny is December and March CARRIED 2017/2018. We did get the big storm early Jan and that whacky 4.5 inches that February between 70 degree days. Great winter. Yeah February was like summer had arrived early lol (complete with mosquitoes and ticks!) I don't think anything like that has ever happened before. Bookend winters usually have a break of a few weeks, but that was like a whole different season in the middle lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: https://psychologyforum.com Back to the weather. Can you post that link in the SNE subforum???? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Like you have said, March seems to have gotten better than December for consistency though. The core of winter, when one should expect snow, is January and February. So whatever we get now is actually just an appetizer. When January and February don't produce, aside from vast outliers like 2018, our winters usually suck. Early January 2018 had one of my favorite snowstorm of all time. True white out conditions for hours.....it was like a semi January 2016 here, exactly half the snowfall and blizzard conditions for 3 hours instead of 6. AND ALL DAY SNOW-- which is really what I crave. I can't stand night time snowstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: In winter it's actually less, I would doubt anything more than 5 days out The models did a good job seeing the primary low cutting from 8-10 days out for around the 15th. It was the 11-15 day runs which had a KU pattern. So that’s what is meant by getting pushed back. Now the threat before Christmas is beginning to get pushed back. Go back to the beginning of this thread in late November when the ensembles had a great looking 11-15 day pattern after December 5-7. That is not to say that we won’t get lucky late December into early January. We just need to see it day 8-10 first in order to lock it in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: The models did a good job seeing the cutter from 10 days out for around the 15th. It was the 11-15 day runs which had a KU pattern. So that’s what is meant by getting pushed back. Now the threat before Christmas is beginning to get pushed back. Go back to the beginning of this thread in late November when the ensembles had a great looking 11-15 day pattern after December 5-7. That is not to say that we won’t get lucky late December into early January. We just need to see it day 8-10 first in order to lock it in. Is there some kind of principle why models do a much better job with cutters than they do with east coast snowstorms? I would guess that cutters are much more obvious and easier for models to sense and for our big snowstorms the set ups are much more fragile. Come to think of it, I can't think of any 12+ snowstorm for our area that was sensed more than 5 days out-- aside from maybe February 1978? What an accomplishment that was almost 45 years ago! I'd put that right up there with the moon landings in the 60s and early 70s lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: Is there some kind of principle why models do a much better job with cutters than they do with east coast snowstorms? I would guess that cutters are much more obvious and easier for models to sense and for our big snowstorms the set ups are much more fragile. Come to think of it, I can't think of any 12+ snowstorm for our area that was sensed more than 5 days out-- aside from maybe February 1978? What an accomplishment that was almost 45 years ago! I'd put that right up there with the moon landings in the 60s and early 70s lol. Much like with analytics in baseball the models allow people to go searching for the answers they want to find...in other words the most favorable outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Much like with analytics in baseball the models allow people to go searching for the answers they want to find...in other words the most favorable outcomes. Which is why everyone sees what they want to see and in post analysis you end up with some very subjective "grades" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What's funny is December and March CARRIED 2017/2018. We did get the big storm early Jan and that whacky 4.5 inches that February between 70 degree days. Great winter. Sure was. Heavy wet snow 4x in March....was memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: Which is why everyone sees what they want to see and in post analysis you end up with some very subjective "grades" lol it's ok to mention the north rays fans... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: Sure was. Heavy wet snow 4x in March....was memorable. and a big one in early April-- that one was my favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The models did a good job seeing the cutter from 10 days out for around the 15th. It was the 11-15 day runs which had a KU pattern. So that’s what is meant by getting pushed back. Now the threat before Christmas is beginning to get pushed back. Go back to the beginning of this thread in late November when the ensembles had a great looking 11-15 day pattern after December 5-7. That is not to say that we won’t get lucky late December into early January. We just need to see it day 8-10 first in order to lock it in. This. We started Dec 5-7 now we are pushing Xmas with anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Ensembles looked pretty good to me. It can take time for snows to show after the big AO drop. The lag time ranges from a week to over a month. In 2010 we had to wait til after Christmas for our big storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles looked pretty good to me. They’ve looked good since the end of November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This. We started Dec 5-7 now we are pushing Xmas with anything decent. Which is what Forky forecasted the whole time, after Christmas is when all the fun starts. Models just rushing everything like they always do. Just because models rushed the look does not mean it's not going to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This. We started Dec 5-7 now we are pushing Xmas with anything decent. At this point it is best to wait and see if a significant pattern change takes place...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 So is winter cancelled? Let me know so I can start crocheting a new toilet seat cover to give my wife for Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Is there some kind of principle why models do a much better job with cutters than they do with east coast snowstorms? I would guess that cutters are much more obvious and easier for models to sense and for our big snowstorms the set ups are much more fragile. Come to think of it, I can't think of any 12+ snowstorm for our area that was sensed more than 5 days out-- aside from maybe February 1978? What an accomplishment that was almost 45 years ago! I'd put that right up there with the moon landings in the 60s and early 70s lol. I think the reason models do so much better with primary lows cutting to our west day 6-10 is that they can be off by 500 miles or more and still verify. A primary low can track 50 miles west of NYC and bring mostly rain to the coast. Same goes for a primary cutting near Chicago. But a benchmark storm can’t very from 6-10 day out if the margin of error results in 500 mile track errors. So the normal day 6-10 day model track error isn’t precise enough to handle benchmark tracks. But they have much more leeway in the margin of error for a track to our west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: So is winter cancelled? Let me know so I can start crocheting a new toilet seat cover to give my wife for Xmas. Haha no. Not one ted tagger has stated any concerns in the New England or this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Which is what Forky forecasted the whole time, after Christmas is when all the fun starts. Models just rushing everything like they always do. Just because models rushed the look does not mean it's not going to happen. He's probably going to be right. The blocking forecast is in rarified territory and even moreso if we dip below 5 which is possible. Things will be more clear after we get Friday's system out of the way 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: He's probably going to be right. The blocking forecast is in rarified territory and even moreso if we dip below 5 which is possible. Things will be more clear after we get Friday's system out of the way Yup, until an actual red tagger (this is literally their career) states concern I would not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Is it an actual cutter if the primary never goes over us and redevelops south of us then moves just underneath us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Everyone, please take 5-10 minutes to read the posts from late November..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup, until an actual red tagger (this is literally their career) states concern I would not. It is most likely going to be delayed but still come. Heart of winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is it an actual cutter if the primary never goes over us and redevelops south of us then moves just underneath us? Miller B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Everyone, please take 5-10 minutes to read the posts from late November..... You seem skeptical about things materializing and want to “wait to see it happen.” We get it. No need to continuously post the same POV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Remember, getting pushed back doesn’t mean we won’t eventually get a 4-6” snow in NYC. While we don’t have the 2010 record blocking, models were showing snowstorms long range for all of December 2010. So the snowy pattern got delayed by 3 weeks or more depending on the model. But sometimes pushback patterns ultimately disappoint. So we would be happy with something in between a shutout and historic KU. Most would be happy with a 4-6”+ event in NYC from late December into early January. Plus several 1-3” 2-4” type snows to put us into double digits by January 10th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: So is winter cancelled? Let me know so I can start crocheting a new toilet seat cover to give my wife for Xmas. Good morning VW. Even with all your hard work, you may need a forwarding address December 26th. Stay well, as always …. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Everyone, please take 5-10 minutes to read the posts from late November..... Exactly, like Forky said after Christmas the whole time, anyone should have known that the earlier good looks were just the models rushing things like they always do. Just like 2010 and 2018 where it took a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning VW. Even with all your hard work, you may need a forwarding address December 26th. Stay well, as always …. Rclab..that would be a big seller on Etsy!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Miller B This is what all the models are showing now so technically not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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