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December 2022


dmillz25
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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And that's how far out the models should go out .

Yeah, 0.6 is the effective skill forecast number on the verification charts.The EPS, GEPS, and GEFS all dip below that number around  10 days out. So that is the range of usefulness. 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/

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The next 8 days are averaging   36degs.(32/39) or Normal.

Month to date is   42.8[+1.2].        Should be   40.1[+0.7] by the 21st.

Reached 37 here yesterday.

Today:  36-39, wind nw., m.sunny, 28 tomorrow AM.

27*(70%RH) here at 6am.       30* at 10am.       33* at Noon.      Reached  39* at 3pm.      36* at 9pm.

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there are some patterns where you do have to worry about cutters, but this is absolutely not one of them. I'm not concerned that there are some random LR OP runs that show them when the ensembles look this good at day 8. there have been OP runs that have shown multiple coastals as well, like last evening's 18z GFS

not even sure what some of the "pattern is getting pushed back" stuff is about. the PV is in SE Canada in the medium range and this is as good as the Pacific has looked since 2014-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1580800.thumb.png.37b419a4eb0a070583991c5f4ad24c08.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1580800.thumb.png.0e225059fa74d1745b4a88f16db9d1ae.png

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there are some patterns where you do have to worry about cutters, but this is absolutely not one of them. I'm not concerned that there are some random LR OP runs that show them when the ensembles look this good at day 8. there have been OP runs that have shown multiple coastals as well, like last evening's 18z GFS

not even sure what some of the "pattern is getting pushed back" stuff is about. the PV is in SE Canada in the medium range and this is as good as the Pacific has looked since 2014-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1580800.thumb.png.37b419a4eb0a070583991c5f4ad24c08.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1580800.thumb.png.0e225059fa74d1745b4a88f16db9d1ae.png

I'm praying 

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2 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Pattern change doesn't mean snow?

I think when the crew on here hears pattern change, the main understanding is that it means 4-6”+ snowstorms will verify. They don’t think of it much in terms of what the teleconnections like the PNA and AO are doing. It can also mean a period of colder temperatures following a warmer one. But many will not call this a full pattern change unless decent snowstorms come with it.

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27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Red taggers out there - will the good period not arrive? Percentage chance of not arriving?

if that pattern completely goes up in smoke in the next few I will literally never long range forecast ever again lmao there is no way 

there is an east Asian mountain torque driving the Pacific jet extension and -EPO... the models are handling this correctly

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where I am December is like March, either great or a shut out. 

Like you have said, March seems to have gotten better than December for consistency though.  The core of winter, when one should expect snow, is January and February.  So whatever we get now is actually just an appetizer.  

When January and February don't produce, aside from vast outliers like 2018, our winters usually suck.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Like you have said, March seems to have gotten better than December for consistency though.  The core of winter, when one should expect snow, is January and February.  So whatever we get now is actually just an appetizer.  

When January and February don't produce, aside from vast outliers like 2018, our winters usually suck.

 

What's funny is December and March CARRIED 2017/2018.

We did get the big storm early Jan and that whacky 4.5 inches that February between 70 degree days. Great winter.

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if that pattern completely goes up in smoke in the next few I will literally never long range forecast ever again lmao there is no way 

there is an east Asian mountain torque driving the Pacific jet extension and -EPO... the models are handling this correctly

Thanks.

Also blocking is not disappearing from what I see, it's just not as intense.

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