MJO812 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We had a coating on the grass. Gone now. Let's hope we get something. Friday looks like all rain so we are kicking the can forward.... Just like Dec 2010 Not saying it's the same pattern but we had to wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just like Dec 2010 Not saying it's the same pattern but we had to wait Actually ahead of 2010 in Fairfield, had an inch this storm was zero in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just got a chance to look things over. I kinda liked the 12z eps, personally. It's a fairly decent match to the phase 6 composite at the end of the run. What does that mean though? To me, it means the the tropical signal is gaining more prominence again. Which is what we want to see. But also, that it's making it's way into the Pacific now and it's getting reflected as such in the 500mb. Which is also what we want to see. A good phase 6 and 7 pass here would be very helpful towards dismantling the SPV. I do wonder if the upcoming jet extension (c/o +EAMT) helps kick off this process. Not sure, but interesting to think about. If we can achieve phase 8 in January, that would be a KU signal. Fingers crossed we can achieve all of those things. It's a tricky, funky year but it's taking us down the interesting path. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We had a coating on the grass. Gone now. Let's hope we get something. Friday looks like all rain so we are kicking the can forward.... Friday was always supposed to be a cutter. It wasn’t until after the 15th did things look colder. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Friday was always supposed to be a cutter. It wasn’t until after the 15th did things look colder. It's closer to a SWFE/Miller B than a cutter. At least northern parts of the area still have a shot at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We had a coating on the grass. Gone now. Let's hope we get something. Friday looks like all rain so we are kicking the can forward.... Were you expecting the formation of a glacier? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Just like Dec 2010 Not saying it's the same pattern but we had to wait True. Although 2010 finished close to -5 temp wise. One of the coldest Decembers outside of 1995/2000 I think we're +2 right now? Dec 2010 was frustrating till the big one. (although inland folks were frustrated the whole month as it missed east.) At least we have a shot. Last December was terrible coast to coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Nibor said: Were you expecting the formation of a glacier? Given some of the early talk, there was a chance of several threats back to back etc. That doesn't seem to be on the table anymore at least through the next 7 days or so....Pattern looks good day 8-10 but you know how that goes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Friday was always supposed to be a cutter. It wasn’t until after the 15th did things look colder. Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: True. Although 2010 finished close to -5 temp wise. One of the coldest Decembers outside of 1995/2000 I think we're +2 right now? Dec 2010 was frustrating till the big one. (although inland folks were frustrated the whole month as it missed east.) At least we have a shot. Last December was terrible coast to coast. 2000 and 2010 were both a missed phase away from being nearly snowless...89 was snowless more or less...it shows how tough it is in December even with a decent pattern to get a big event here near the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 2000 and 2010 were both a missed phase away from being nearly snowless...89 was snowless more or less...it shows how tough it is in December even with a decent pattern to get a big event here near the coast 89 was such a crazy block-I lived in Philly at the time we got about 10 inches on the month but even there we were on the northern fringe of the storms-incredibly suppressed and bitter cold pattern. Jacksonville FL to Charleston SC had a white xmas from a storm around 12/22 that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's closer to a SWFE/Miller B than a cutter. At least northern parts of the area still have a shot at snow. 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Miller B My point is that this time last week we all thought we needed to look past fridays event. The models had it cutting into MN and torching the metro. If it ends up producing significant snow close to nyc consider that a win. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Tonight will be fair and cold. By Thursday, a complex storm could bring a cold rain or snow changing to rain to coastal regions into Friday. Interior sections could see accumulating snow before any changeover. The potential exists for a significant snowfall from central Pennsylvania across central New York State. The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 and December 27-January 2 periods. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. Afterward, as the PNA goes neutral, the prospect for snowfall and more significant cold could increase. The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was -7.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.854 today. On December 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.390 (RMM). The December 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.513 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.7° (0.4° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 View from MSU this morning. Courtesy of the NJ subreddit. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: 2000 and 2010 were both a missed phase away from being nearly snowless...89 was snowless more or less...it shows how tough it is in December even with a decent pattern to get a big event here near the coast Right, this is NY not Burlington. NYC in December is similar to Atlanta in terms of big snows now. Don't expect anything and be pleasantly surprised when it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 22F this morning with that snow on ground really helping pull the temperature down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 24F down by me. Nice, crisp morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 degrees currently. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny but cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 42° The cool but dry weather will continue through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.9°; 15-Year: 45.6° Newark: 30-Year: 45.4°; 15-Year: 46.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the Pacific improvement gets pushed back again as the OP Euro, CMC, and GFS have another cutter right before Christmas. The Arctic cold looks to dump into the West and and Plains. So weak systems will shear out and stronger ones will pump the SE Ridge leading to cutters or huggers. Common theme since November. Background state is just a bit cooler now. at this point just settle for the fact that you’re having a rather normal temperature stretch in December and if you get lucky (like inland areas did Sunday) with one of these events, so be it. If the goods are still 7 to 10 days out…this is your December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 camps on the EPS for that. I think this Friday system needs to get out of the way first. For a clearer picture. Tons of spread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the Pacific improvement gets pushed back again as the OP Euro, CMC, and GFS have another cutter right before Christmas. The Arctic cold looks to dump into the West and and Plains. So weak systems will shear out and stronger ones will pump the SE Ridge leading to cutters or huggers. That's if it's even right. We are talking about 240 here. We will eventually score in this " great pattern : 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's if it's even right. We are talking about 240 here. We will eventually score in this " great pattern : If it's cutter after cutter not sure it's a "great pattern" Just seems like the old rules don't apply anymore.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the Pacific improvement gets pushed back again as the OP Euro, CMC, and GFS have another cutter right before Christmas. The Arctic cold looks to dump into the West and and Plains. So weak systems will shear out and stronger ones will pump the SE Ridge leading to cutters or huggers. Yup - I think Forky is going to be 100% correct on this one (he always stated would be after Christmas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup - I think Forky is going to be 100% correct on this one (he always stated would be after Christmas). Blocking is gone after Christmas….pac would need to do all the lifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Blocking is gone after Christmas….pac would need to do all the lifting Remember just like models always rush the great pattern look, they will always do the same with the break down. Also looking at the ensembles it weakens blocking with the PNA but I do not see it completely disappearing. Remember if we have a PNA and STRONG blocking it will be suppression city. We NEED the blocking to be -1 to -2, NOT -4, -5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Remember just like models always rush the great pattern look, they will always do the same with the break down. Also looking at the ensembles it weakens blocking with the PNA but I do not see it completely disappearing. Remember if we have a PNA and STRONG blocking it will be suppression city. We NEED the blocking to be -1 to -2, NOT -4, -5. Exactly People talking in absolutes two weeks away while the models have a hard time getting a storm right a few days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Blocking is gone after Christmas….pac would need to do all the lifting So you don't think the great pattern that people predicted is not coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: So you don't think the great pattern that people predicted is not coming? I think another cutter before Xmas then hope the pac can give us a decent storm. If we have no blocking then we risk cold dry before we reshuffle in January. I don’t see a great pattern coming anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Exactly 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So you don't think the great pattern that people predicted is not coming? Doesn't your previous post apply to this post??? People talking in absolutes two weeks away while the models have a hard time getting a storm right a few days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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