Yanksfan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12Z CMC trending towards a larger front end snow dump for end of week storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 One of the interior guys should start a thread for this week's storm. Look like a significant snowfall for them. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 54 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If you're inland sure, there would be plenty of snow on the GFS 12z. But the moisture is coming in on strong ENE flow still. This is the panel at hr93. That would torch anyone near the coast regardless of what's going on at 850mb. Temps during this panel are in the 40s in NYC. For those not well inland, we need the transfer to happen sooner and the low to track ENE sooner so the wind can change direction. One important factor of the GEFS is this run has a slightly more east component. This could allow for a little back end snow (nothing like December 02 but maybe light)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Not for nothing, if this winter turns out snowy and cold it’s a good omen for the next two winters as well. Volcanic forcing doesn’t erode in a year. But it’s also not all encompassing and can be offset by other unfavorable factors, of course. It’s more another piece of the puzzle. With the recent paper showing the underestimation of sulfur released in that eruption combined with latest assessment of its size, there’s a very good chance it has a hand in what’s going on. It was as big or even bigger than Pinatubo, just with a different aerosol profile. Because I’m a giga geology nerd, one last factoid about HTHH: they recently discovered evidence for underwater pyroclastic flows reaching 80km away from the caldera! That’s absolutely insane. I'm more of a layman but with 50 years of learning and observing in person. I've lived all over the country, including a short stint in AK, and have traveled through 43 states so have a fair idea of what thing actually look like. Maybe we should have a Geo-weather thread where we can geek out. 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the interior guys should start a thread for this week's storm. Look like a significant snowfall for them. If I do it we're guaranteed to get rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Man, these past few years it sure feels like whenever the models hone in on a no-snow solution, they're locked in (imby at least). hopefully the PNA goes positive (feels rare these days) and we can pull something out of it. I remember 10 or so years ago, a bunch of under 48 hours changes that went from rain to MECS/HECS. Got spoiled I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 It's getting late early. If the 16-17 storm is mostly rain (except far N and W) that take us out another 5 days for anything meaningful.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the interior guys should start a thread for this week's storm. Look like a significant snowfall for them. Thread is now created. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 57 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the interior guys should start a thread for this week's storm. Look like a significant snowfall for them. The 12z Euro says no to that. It is pretty warm and even extreme NW Jersey doesn't get much snow on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's getting late early. If the 16-17 storm is mostly rain (except far N and W) that take us out another 5 days for anything meaningful.... So far this is the most disappointing blocking pattern I've ever seen. Euro & GFS now shove a big trough west after the 16th storm which is not good. That's been the theme too with models underestimating the western trough due to the RNA pattern. I wonder if we'll have to wait until 2nd half of winter now when we can get away with a bad pacific. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: So far this is the most disappointing blocking pattern I've ever seen. Euro & GFS now shove a big trough west after the 16th storm which is not good. That's been the theme too with models underestimating the western trough due to the RNA pattern. I wonder if we'll have to wait until 2nd half of winter now when we can get away with a bad pacific. The cold air has yet to show as well. Dec 96 was warm with blocking this seems to be going the same way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Can someone pin the 12/15 - 12/16 thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GEFS looks better than 6z in LR, blocking looks like it's re developing and trough still in east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 all -4 or lower daily AO indices since feb 2010 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 238 days out of 26636 since 1950 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 238 days out of 26636 since 1950 What happened in late March 2013 when we had that extremely negative AO? I don't remember any big snows around then. 3/18-3/26 was one long duration extremely negative AO, that had to have set some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: So far this is the most disappointing blocking pattern I've ever seen. Euro & GFS now shove a big trough west after the 16th storm which is not good. That's been the theme too with models underestimating the western trough due to the RNA pattern. I wonder if we'll have to wait until 2nd half of winter now when we can get away with a bad pacific. Yeah, the trough in the West is undercutting the block to the north. So the primary lows track to the Great Lakes. Need a strong Rockies ridge to make the pattern favorable for 4”+ snows in NYC. The lag between the December -4.0 and -4.9 AO and the 4”+ snowstorms has been quite variable. The only thing that we know for sure is that the 4.0”+ snowstorm will take longer than 2000 and 1995. -4.0 to -4.9 December -AO dates and the next 4.0” snow in NYC 12-23-00…12-30…12” 12-18-95….12-19….7.7” 12-26-68….2-9….15.3” 12-13-66…12-24….7.1” 12-31-62….1-26…..4.2” 12-23-50…..None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: Yeah, the trough in the West is undercutting the block to the north. So the primary lows track to the Great Lakes. Need a strong Rockies ridge to make the pattern favorable for 4”+ snows in NYC. The lag between the December -4.0 and -4.9 AO and the 4”+ snowstorms has been quite variable. The only thing that we know for sure is that the 4.0”+ snowstorm will take longer than 2000 and 1995. -4.0 to -4.9 December -AO dates and the next 4.0” snow in NYC 12-23-00…12-30…12” 12-18-95….12-19….7.7” 12-26-68….2-9….15.3” 12-13-66…12-24….7.1” 12-31-62….1-26…..4.2” 12-23-50…..None Chris what are the chances we repeat with another 4 SD -AO later in the winter (JFM)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What happened in late March 2013 when we had that extremely negative AO? I don't remember any big snows around then. 3/18-3/26 was one long duration extremely negative AO, that had to have set some records. In March 2013 we had a long duration snow event. 4 to 10 west to east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It's getting late early. If the 16-17 storm is mostly rain (except far N and W) that take us out another 5 days for anything meaningful.... Welcome to being a Mets fan :). Friday is rain. The show this week was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: In March 2013 we had a long duration snow event. 4 to 10 west to east. I remember a storm but I thought it was SNE centric probably the least amount here considering it's late March 4-5 inches maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember a storm but I thought it was SNE centric probably the least amount here considering it's late March 4-5 inches maybe Yeah I had 9.5 here in CT. Good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember a storm but I thought it was SNE centric probably the least amount here considering it's late March 4-5 inches maybe Forgot to mention it was not a temperature issue for West and southwest, it was the storm was wayyyy out to sea so NE was just closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are going to repeat the -4 AO later in the week. Some take it under 5. Now that's extremely rare territory if it happens. It would be shocking if this pattern didn't eventually produce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some take it under 5. Now that's extremely rare territory if it happens. It would be shocking if this pattern didn't eventually produce hopefully it will, but early on it looked like something that could give us a few threats-seems to have slowly disappeared with each passing day. Need some cold air to show up too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hopefully it will, but early on it looked like something that could give us a few threats-seems to have slowly disappeared with each passing day. Need some cold air to show up too... Was always possible we would maybe get a SWFE type event before the PNA went positive but the tendency so far this season early has been for more phasing and or stronger systems so I wasn’t quite too in love with the period before 12/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: hopefully it will, but early on it looked like something that could give us a few threats-seems to have slowly disappeared with each passing day. Need some cold air to show up too... Huh? Didn’t you just get an inch of snow yesterday? The cold was always supposed to come after the cutter the end of this week. I see two threats after that with storm track up for debate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huh? Didn’t you just get an inch of snow yesterday? The cold was always supposed to come after the cutter the end of this week. I see two threats after that with storm track up for debate Bridgeport in the water reported 0.8, so Fairfield had at least an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huh? Didn’t you just get an inch of snow yesterday? The cold was always supposed to come after the cutter the end of this week. I see two threats after that with storm track up for debate Gfs shows a few threats Patience is key here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huh? Didn’t you just get an inch of snow yesterday? The cold was always supposed to come after the cutter the end of this week. I see two threats after that with storm track up for debate We had a coating on the grass. Gone now. Let's hope we get something. Friday looks like all rain so we are kicking the can forward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now