December 2022

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not out of the question that things could trend more favorably given blocking in place.

We are still 4 days away. 

That storm is a hugger to have any kind of decent snow you'll have to be well inland.

 

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0?!  Feels like one of those old style 80s winters already.

 

[wdrag]

Posted in nw-ne suburbs because that's where I think the greatest impact will be for wintry precipitation, but not impossible for  the coast (NYC) next 2-3 winter storms between the 15th-28th.  Looks like CP might have gotten some measurable snow???  I see EWR and LGA did.  

While am still not expecting 1+" of snow prior to Christmas NYC, that could change if modeling blocking forces an eastward track.   I do think this next storm will bring a period of 50-60MPH gusts to a part of LI Friday and minor-moderate coastal flooding seems possible at high tide very early Friday morning or midday Friday. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will give way to partly sunny skies. It will be cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 42°

Philadelphia: 44°

The cool but dry weather will continue through midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 46.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.7°

[MJO812]

6z gfs is further east but still warm along the coast

 

The low goes along the jersey shore to eastern LI and then strengthens for SNE.

 

[MJO812]

The above pic is cruel

Snowcover for all of NY except for NYC.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs is further east but still warm along the coast

 

The low goes along the jersey shore to eastern LI and then strengthens for SNE.

 

Nice shift east on gefs

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The above pic is cruel

Snowcover for all of NY except for NYC.

Climo.

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The above pic is cruel

Snowcover for all of NY except for NYC.

For the end of the week I would be giving greater weight to models showing a system that gives more of a freezing/frozen precip event to the interior areas.  I think the GFS is on its own and is too cold in the mid levels.  I agree with Walt’s idea that this is mainly an I84 and north event.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

For the end of the week I would be giving greater weight to models showing a system that gives more of a freezing/frozen precip event to the interior areas.  I think the GFS is on its own and is too cold in the mid levels.  I agree with Walt’s idea that this is mainly an I84 and north event.

It all depends on the primary 

The coast needs a faster dying primary to a coastal.

We have alot of blocking so that's a possibility. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The coast needs a faster dying primary to a coastal.

Been trending the wrong way? Still time but you are trying to thread the needle for your area. You weenied me prior but seriously, go with climo in these tightrope walks. 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Posted in nw-ne suburbs because that's where I think the greatest impact will be for wintry precipitation, but not impossible for  the coast (NYC) next 2-3 winter storms between the 15th-28th.  Looks like CP might have gotten some measurable snow???  I see EWR and LGA did.  

While am still not expecting 1+" of snow prior to Christmas NYC, that could change if modeling blocking forces an eastward track.   I do think this next storm will bring a period of 50-60MPH gusts to a part of LI Friday and minor-moderate coastal flooding seems possible at high tide very early Friday morning or midday Friday. 

Walt, can you look up JFK for this storm please-- looks like somewhere between 0.1 and 0.25 here

 

[Volcanic Winter]

33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Climo.

Isn't it literally just the track in this case? If the storm were further south NYC would get blasted.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Isn't it literally just the track in this case? If the storm were further south NYC would get blasted.

He probably means this is the normal track for these storms this early in the season.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He probably means this is the normal track for these storms this early in the season.

 

Partly yes. And still early esp given the warm atlantic. Patience.

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It all depends on the primary 

The coast needs a faster dying primary to a coastal.

We have alot of blocking so that's a possibility. 

Look at the overnight models.  How many of them are showing significant snows on the coast?  The primary is torching the mid levels.  The Euro / CMC are very strongly in that camp.  The GFS looks to be colder than the GEFS and is on its own with snows closer in to the city.  The ensembles are showing this as being a latitude based event.  There will be other events this month and maybe one of them will deliver snow for the coast.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Look at the overnight models.  How many of them are showing significant snows on the coast?  The primary is torching the mid levels.  The Euro / CMC are very strongly in that camp.  The GFS looks to be colder than the GEFS and is on its own with snows closer in to the city.  The ensembles are showing this as being a latitude based event.  There will be other events this month and maybe one of them will deliver snow for the coast.

The pattern finally looks cold going forward. It has been a while since Christmas was cold.

[frd]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So don’t despair if snowstorms keep getting pushed back as one will eventually click between 12-20 and 1-10. But a block north of Alaska and periods following -4 AO drops have produced 4-6”+ snowstorms for NYC in the past. One storm will eventually pull the PV north of the Great Lakes and temperatures will drop under 20° in NYC. 

@bluewave since we are getting deeper into December would that association,  with the - 4 AO and the block North of Alaska, work for areas near Baltimore and Wilmington, DE. regarding snowfall   ? Thanks  

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Isn't it literally just the track in this case? If the storm were further south NYC would get blasted.

I think that it’s mostly the warmer waters to our east and overall higher temperatures favor interior sections in December. Notice the wide spread between BGM and ISP snowfall in December. But they both have had the same January snowfall as the coast gets cold enough for more snow.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	16.0	16.0
2015	2.2	2.2
2016	29.8	29.8
2017	11.3	11.3
2018	7.9	7.9
2019	20.1	20.1
2020	48.2	48.2
2021	8.5	8.5
2022	0.3	0.3

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.7	2.7
2015	T	T
2016	3.2	3.2
2017	6.0	6.0
2018	T	T
2019	4.2	4.2
2020	7.5	7.5
2021	0.3	0.3
2022	0.0	0.0

Monthly Total Snowfall for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Season
Mean	16.2	16.2
2015	16.1	16.1
2016	10.2	10.2
2017	12.0	12.0
2018	14.9	14.9
2019	26.2	26.2
2020	12.7	12.7
2021	16.8	16.8
2022	20.3	20.3

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Season
Mean	15.9	15.9
2015	30.2	30.2
2016	24.8	24.8
2017	14.0	14.0
2018	22.0	22.0
2019	0.9	0.9
2020	2.5	2.5
2021	1.1	1.1
2022	31.8	31.8

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that it’s mostly the warmer waters to our east and overall higher temperatures favor interior sections in December. Notice the wide spread between BGM and ISP snowfall in December. But they both have had the same January snowfall as the coast gets cold enough for more snow.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	16.0	16.0
2015	2.2	2.2
2016	29.8	29.8
2017	11.3	11.3
2018	7.9	7.9
2019	20.1	20.1
2020	48.2	48.2
2021	8.5	8.5
2022	0.3	0.3

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.7	2.7
2015	T	T
2016	3.2	3.2
2017	6.0	6.0
2018	T	T
2019	4.2	4.2
2020	7.5	7.5
2021	0.3	0.3
2022	0.0	0.0

Monthly Total Snowfall for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Season
Mean	16.2	16.2
2015	16.1	16.1
2016	10.2	10.2
2017	12.0	12.0
2018	14.9	14.9
2019	26.2	26.2
2020	12.7	12.7
2021	16.8	16.8
2022	20.3	20.3

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Season
Mean	15.9	15.9
2015	30.2	30.2
2016	24.8	24.8
2017	14.0	14.0
2018	22.0	22.0
2019	0.9	0.9
2020	2.5	2.5
2021	1.1	1.1
2022	31.8	31.8

 

Right there is a rule of thumb often mentioned with regards to our area with regards to p-type....

Dec Inland-snow NYC-mix LI-rain

Jan Inland-snow NYC-snow LI-mix

Feb Inland-snow NYC-snow LI-snow

I see this broadcast every season and obviously it's a vast oversimplification but just going by SST you can see why this chart is shown every season.

Wow Binghampton snowfall avg doesn't change between December and January?  How do these numbers (BGM vs ISP) look like for February, Chris?  Thanks.

 

[North and West]

Nice shift east on gefs

I see that this pretty map you posted has accumulation starting right over my house/MMU


.

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Partly yes. And still early esp given the warm atlantic. Patience.

Do you have an approximate date or week for which you could go out on a limb and say "This is when The Wiggum Storm will occur"?

 

 

[wdrag]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, can you look up JFK for this storm please-- looks like somewhere between 0.1 and 0.25 here

 

Maybe some NWS folks can answer this.  CLI report at 430PM should answer this unless OKX releases a PNS sooner.  OKX directs the climate messaging. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Thanks for info / discussion. My assessment of “climo” would be say that 1/29/22 happened in mid Dec with the same track and I got rain to 2 inches of slush instead of 16 inches of powder, as even with a favorable track for me the mid levels stay too warm. 

Like in this case wrt Thurs storm even at the end of January a low tracking that close would give rain across the coastal plain of NJ / NY and NE, perhaps with a slightly closer cutoff of snow. 

Just sharing how I interpret that, but I guess it’s more a summation of factors including track.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thanks for info / discussion. My assessment of “climo” would be say that 1/29/22 happened in mid Dec with the same track and I got rain to 2 inches of slush instead of 16 inches of powder, as even with a favorable track for me the mid levels stay too warm. 

Like in this case wrt Thurs storm even at the end of January a low tracking that close would give rain across the coastal plain of NJ / NY and NE, perhaps with a slightly closer cutoff of snow. 

Just sharing how I interpret that, but I guess it’s more a summation of factors including track.

 

Right, the closest to the coast track for which I've seen snow (and in December to boot) was with the Millenium storm, where it only changed over east of Islip.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   36degs.(32/41) or Normal.

Starting Dec. 22 AM and continuing to the end of the run, there is a chance of a sub 20 T reading.       % peaks Christmas AM?

Chances for snow continue to disappoint.      Chance of 1"+ over the next 15 days.         Chance is 0% before the 20th.

 

Reached 46 here yesterday at 1:30pm.

Today:    38-41, wind n. to nw-breezy, p. cloudy, 28 tomorrow AM.

35*(85%RH) here at 6am.      34* at 7am.     38* at 11am.       39* at 2pm.      37* at 3pm.        32* at 9pm.

[Volcanic Winter]

Not for nothing, if this winter turns out snowy and cold it’s a good omen for the next two winters as well. Volcanic forcing doesn’t erode in a year. But it’s also not all encompassing and can be offset by other unfavorable factors, of course. It’s more another piece of the puzzle.

With the recent paper showing the underestimation of sulfur released in that eruption combined with latest assessment of its size, there’s a very good chance it has a hand in what’s going on. It was as big or even bigger than Pinatubo, just with a different aerosol profile. 

Because I’m a giga geology nerd, one last factoid about HTHH: they recently discovered evidence for underwater pyroclastic flows reaching 80km away from the caldera! That’s absolutely insane. 

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

0?!  Feels like one of those old style 80s winters already.

 

You know I was thinking about that, freezing cold warm up rain freezing cold after the front.

Some of those winters had a bad rap though, a lot of them were 75% of average which is basically like last winters total. Not great but not ratter after ratter. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track forecasts will probably be all over the place from the solstice on as models can figure out the exact PV location. Notice the larger than average spread between the EPS and OP. This large spread also exists between the GEFS and GEPS and their OPs. So don’t despair if snowstorms keep getting pushed back as one will eventually click between 12-20 and 1-10. But a block north of Alaska and periods following -4 AO drops have produced 4-6”+ snowstorms for NYC in the past. One storm will eventually pull the PV north of the Great Lakes and temperatures will drop under 20° in NYC. 
 

 

 

 

 

Yeah I would be shocked if we were shut out during this upcoming period, for with the cold nearby we can score in changeover events and weak trailing waves at the very least.

I do think the ceiling is very high and still has KU potential.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I would be shocked if we were shut out during this upcoming period, for with the cold nearby we can score in changeover events and weak trailing waves at the very least.

I do think the ceiling is very high and still has KU potential.

If Friday is a rainstorm it will be a disappointment so far.   Early model runs were good cold/some frozen events mid month on.....Northern areas did do ok last night but the souther half of the forum was mainly rain/white rain.