December 2022

[CIK62]

Not much to stay up late over either---for the next two weeks?        Has remained unchanged for the last four runs:     50/50 on >=1" in the next 15.

 

[Snowlover11]

you know the 12z where trash when not one post was made

[HeadInTheClouds]

Euro brings in colder air as low moves east and gets some snow to the coast eventually. Still long way to go with this. 

 

 

[Metasequoia]

I don't hate where we're sitting 6 days out. There's a lot support for a large storm coming up the east coast with a lot of blocking in place. The models are likely going to flop all over the place for several days to come. Too early to throw in the towel or get too excited.

[bluewave]

This has to be one of the oddest combinations of teleconnections that we have seen in a while. We usually get a solid Rockies Ridge +PNA spike with so much blocking from Greenland back to Alaska. But we have an unusual east to west trough stuck underneath. There is still a tail of blue behind the cutoff back to the Rockies next weekend. So there is nothing keeping the primary low from cutting to Chicago even several days after a -4 AO block.The secondary low hugs the coast for plenty of rain and wind before ending as some snow.
 

 

Never seen a 500 mb look like this before 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS starting to look more like the EPS!

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the oddest combinations of teleconnections that we have seen in a while. We usually get a solid Rockies Ridge +PNA spike with so much blocking from Greenland back to Alaska. But we have an unusual east to west trough stuck underneath. There is still a tail of blue behind the cutoff back to the Rockies next weekend. So there is nothing keeping the primary low from cutting to Chicago even several days after a -4 AO block.The secondary low hugs the coast for plenty of rain and wind before ending as some snow.
 

 

Never seen a 500 mb look like this before 

 

 

 

Honestly with a track/setup like this back-end accumulating snows are very possible.

Not saying this is 92, but had 6 inches down to the coast in that storm after 2 days of rain.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the oddest combinations of teleconnections that we have seen in a while. We usually get a solid Rockies Ridge +PNA spike with so much blocking from Greenland back to Alaska. But we have an unusual east to west trough stuck underneath. There is still a tail of blue behind the cutoff back to the Rockies next weekend. So there is nothing keeping the primary low from cutting to Chicago even several days after a -4 AO block.The secondary low hugs the coast for plenty of rain and wind before ending as some snow.
 

 

Never seen a 500 mb look like this before 

 

 

 

Maybe the models are underestimating the block and the models will shift south with the primary .

[lee59]

I am just glad there is a storm somewhere along or near the coast. Something to track. I really don't buy into the track of north to N. Y. and then a right turn. I think a more general NE track will happen.

[snywx]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Yeh… just like Thursday looks too

Someone’s gonna do very well on the interior sections tomorrow

Anyone N of Yonkers should Atleast see measurable with plowable N/W of 287. Nice little appetizer for the possible end of the week event 

[MANDA]

Posting for informational purposes only (KMMU) user can draw their own conclusions from this model cycle.  CMC offers some robust model members.  EURO offers far less.  GFS (FWIW) not overly impressive either.  Long ways to go and many changes lie ahead.   There is going be a 2ndary development but beyond that the details on track / ptypes a long ways from being determined.   For my part still leaning on more freezing / frozen ptypes NW of PHL/NYC/BOS corridor.

 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe the models are underestimating the block and the models will shift south with the primary .

An east-west block from Alaska to Greenland with energy cutting underneath is usually a KU signal even for the coast. But the elongated  trough from coast to coast is an oddity. We should have more of a ridge over the Rockies with so much blocking. This is what happened back in December 2000. But the models let the primary run too far north due to the lower heights in the Western US.

Classic KU composite from December 2000

Odd trough under the whole length of block with no ridge in Rockies

 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Honestly with a track/setup like this back-end accumulating snows are very possible.

Not saying this is 92, but had 6 inches down to the coast in that storm after 2 days of rain.

Where? The city and ewr had around an inch of snow on the backside

[forkyfork]

we have 6 days for changes to happen 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Where? The city and ewr had around an inch of snow on the backside

Norwalk CT.

[IrishRob17]

35 minutes ago, snywx said:

Anyone N of Yonkers should Atleast see measurable with plowable N/W of 287. Nice little appetizer for the possible end of the week event 

WWA has been hoisted for 3-5”

[donsutherland1]

A system could bring some rain or perhaps wet snow to parts of the region tomorrow into Monday. Areas to the north and west of New York City and Newark could see a coating of snow. Poughkeepsie could see 1"-3" of snow and Port Jervis could pick up 3"-6".

As had been indicated with the development of the current EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, the potential for snowfall has begun to increase. The 500 mb pattern is highly anomalous for December cases with severe Atlantic blocking, so uncertainty remains higher than normal when it comes to snowfall potential.

A sustained colder pattern is currently developing. The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +16.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.068 today. During December 1-10, the AO has averaged a preliminary -2.591. That is the lowest December 1-10 average on record. The prior mark was -2.297, which was set in 1985.

On December 8 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The December 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.147 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.8° (0.3° below normal).

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Not much to stay up late over either---for the next two weeks?        Has remained unchanged for the last four runs:     50/50 on >=1" in the next 15.

 

The 90-100% line is so close you guys ought to be able to see the snow from the top of a tall building. That's gonna sting a little 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Honestly with a track/setup like this back-end accumulating snows are very possible.

Not saying this is 92, but had 6 inches down to the coast in that storm after 2 days of rain.

Back end world almost never works in NYC metro sadly

[Tatamy]

18z GFS

 

 

[lee59]

Models showing a strong wind event for Long Island, doesn't mean a lot this early in the game but interesting to watch.

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z GFS

 

 

0z gonna be 3 feet in Maine. Guys remember the GFS with 1/29/22? Up until the last second I remember it showing a total miss for basically everyone while the Euro held swerve.

In the NE thread they were talking about the lack of consistency right now with it and to basically discount it until it begins to show less extreme run to run volatility, which I agree with personally based on what we're seeing.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

0z gonna be 3 feet in Maine. Guys remember the GFS with 1/29/22? Up until the last second I remember it showing a total miss for basically everyone while the Euro held swerve.

In the NE thread they were talking about the lack of consistency right now with it and to basically discount it until it begins to show less extreme run to run volatility, which I agree with personally based on what we're seeing.

Agreed, that’s gotta be the least chance of verification snow map of all time. I guess it’s seeing confluence causing the lesser totals to the NE. Highly highly unlikely. 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently under a WWA here in the Berkshires, expecting anywhere from 3-6 inches before all is said & done Monday AM. Radio met here stating that there is alot of uncertanity regarding next weeks storm.

[Tatamy]

56 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

0z gonna be 3 feet in Maine. Guys remember the GFS with 1/29/22? Up until the last second I remember it showing a total miss for basically everyone while the Euro held swerve.

In the NE thread they were talking about the lack of consistency right now with it and to basically discount it until it begins to show less extreme run to run volatility, which I agree with personally based on what we're seeing.

I was 2’ at 06z; ZIP at 12z; and now back to 15”.  Gotta love this consistency.

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, Metasequoia said:

I don't hate where we're sitting 6 days out. There's a lot support for a large storm coming up the east coast with a lot of blocking in place. The models are likely going to flop all over the place for several days to come. Too early to throw in the towel or get too excited.

Just an opinion:  if there is no true arctic air to feed in, and the storm is a very slow mover, I would say this is mainly a rainmaker?  

[Volcanic Winter]

17 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Just an opinion:  if there is no true arctic air to feed in, and the storm is a very slow mover, I would say this is mainly a rainmaker?  

Fair, I’m tempering my expectations back down to nothing. In the absence of a better air mass I feel like the storm would need an absolutely textbook track to get snow to me right now. 
 

Maybe up by EWR at work I’ll see something. 
 

Of course a long way to go, etc. Happy to have something to watch and glad someone is probably getting a significant snowstorm. 
 

If I get nothing, I’m feeling good about my chances going forward at least.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

The 90-100% line is so close you guys ought to be able to see the snow from the top of a tall building. That's gonna sting a little 

That's a good point.  The color differences are so stark that you can lose track of what they mean.  My location is in the skunked area but if you look at it closely, it's 70%.  Not shocking that it's less than inland, but not a suicidal difference. 

Another way of looking at it is that there is a 28% higher chance of this outcome away from the immediate coast.

[snywx]

50 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Fair, I’m tempering my expectations back down to nothing. In the absence of a better air mass I feel like the storm would need an absolutely textbook track to get snow to me right now. 
 

Maybe up by EWR at work I’ll see something. 
 

Of course a long way to go, etc. Happy to have something to watch and glad someone is probably getting a significant snowstorm. 
 

If I get nothing, I’m feeling good about my chances going forward at least.

Where are you located?

[sussexcountyobs]

Maybe we should focus right now on the event that will happen in the next 24 hrs? Then move on to a possible storm 6 days from now.

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

Where are you located?