December 2022

[kat5hurricane]

On 11/27/2022 at 11:49 AM, LibertyBell said:

The timing here is a lot better than it was in 2018.

Once past February it's extremely difficult for urban areas to get extreme snowfall totals.

 

Yep. You get March 2018 type blocking in mid to late December and you have massive potential. March 2018 a month earlier and everybody would have been buried instead of the white rain garbage a lot of urban areas got.

[EastonSN+]

I thought NYC did good I'm 2018. At least 2 6 plus events. Maybe I am mistaken.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought NYC did good I'm 2018. At least 2 6 plus events. Maybe I am mistaken.

I think they did-but it was at night.  Anything that fell during the day was white rain....

[kat5hurricane]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought NYC did good I'm 2018. At least 2 6 plus events. Maybe I am mistaken.

A lot of that was white rain. Good snowfall numbers but visually it was mostly wet even in the colder spots in Queens where I live. The potential for something much greater in the immediate metro was so close but just a month too late. Areas outside the city got historic totals.

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Looks terrible.  Hate winter.  A win would be cold and dry in that pattern, only hope

I find some sort of irony here that you chose a user name based off of a game that’s played on ice. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Looks terrible.  Hate winter.  A win would be cold and dry in that pattern, only hope

Cold/dry is the worst combo.

[EastonSN+]

Found this. Yeah I see the hole around NYC.

 

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this. Yeah I see the hole around NYC.

 

I believe nyc did best with the last march 2018 event. The CCB ended up to there west during the first event 

[EastonSN+]

[nyrangers1022]

41 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I find some sort of irony here that you chose a user name based off of a game that’s played on ice. 

Uhhh, the game is mainly played indoors.    And plenty of southern teams

[North and West]

.

[EastonSN+]

I remember 2010 progression with a cutter that made the dome collapse in Minnesota.

Was chilly all month.

Then finally boxing day came around.

Results were epic till Feb 1, then more snow with the snow to rain in Feb and the overrunning event in March that produced 4 to 6 across the area.

Snow in all 4 months.

Let's see how much success is realized this time (conscious that this blocking is not as strong as 2010 so results may vary).

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this. Yeah I see the hole around NYC.

 

Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+). 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember 2010 progression with a cutter that made the dome collapse in Minnesota.

Was chilly all month.

Then finally boxing day came around.

Results were epic till Feb 1, then more snow with the snow to rain in Feb and the overrunning event in March that produced 4 to 6 across the area.

Snow in all 4 months.

Let's see how much success is realized this time (conscious that this blocking is not as strong as 2010 so results may vary).

I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5. 

[donsutherland1]

With an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern forecast to predominate during at least the first 1-2 weeks of December, the guidance has evolved toward a higher probability of cold anomalies in eastern North America. There are two clusters of monthly outcomes (1950-2021) when the EPO, AO, and PNA all averaged < 0 during December. Those two clusters account for 75% of December EPO-/AO-/PNA- cases. The CFSv2 currently favors the first idea. The second would feature even more widespread cold in the CONUS. Both scenarios feature widespread cold in Europe. It should be noted that teleconnection forecasts lose skill after 10-14 days.

 

[EasternLI]

Timeframe of the evolution remains consistent. Which is nice to see. 

[EasternLI]

That's wild. 

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Timeframe of the evolution remains consistent. Which is nice to see. 

That's key and signals this evolution is real. 

Ignore some of the ops though. They might waver a bit until we get closer to this period. 

Ensembles show us the way

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's key and signals this evolution is real. 

Ignore some of the ops though. They might waver a bit until we get closer to this period. 

Ensembles show us the way

Eps is amazing with the big spike in the PNA ridge .

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is amazing with the big spike in the PNA ridge .

GEFS made a great improvement as well. Moved towards the EPS.

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is amazing with the big spike in the PNA ridge .

PNA spike and deep west based NAO and TPV roaring underneath could also be too much of a good thing ie cold but dry. But alas, all conjecture at this range and MUCH better than zero HL blocking and a hostile PAC. It isnt a shut the blinds pattern fo sho

[Nibor]

Greenland block, PV over Hudson Bay, +PNA.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Greenland block, PV over Hudson Bay, +PNA.

Gefs says the gfs needs a nap

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs says the gfs needs a nap

Pacific improving on ensembles 

[North and West]

Greenland block, PV over Hudson Bay, +PNA.

.

[EasternLI]

This is actually a pretty textbook SSW precursor pattern on the 18z GEFS. May not go exactly like this, but that's what this is. 

[dmillz25]

13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

You missed 3/21/18. NYC got 13”

[eduggs]

It would be nice to at least have something trackable as we head into December. The polar jet remains pretty far north even in the extended on the ensembles despite the blocking regime.