CIK62 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41) or Normal. While the heaviest potential snow total has reached 6"+ 100 miles northwest of the city, we stay at 0% here for even 1". Best chance for T to get below 20 is the 19th-25th, peaking on Christmas AM at 10%.. But where is the snow? Really just 50/50 on at least 1" for the next 15 days totally. Reached 46 here yesterday. Today: 40-42, wind ne., increasing clouds, 37 tomorrow AM. 34*(51%RH) here at 6am. 35* at 9am. 38* at 10am. 40* at Noon. 42* at 1pm. 42*/43* 3pm-7pm. 41* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41) or Normal. While the heaviest potential snow total has reached 6"+ 100 miles northwest of the city, we stay at 0% here for even 1". Reached 46 here yesterday. Today: 40-42, wind ne., increasing clouds, 37 tomorrow AM. 34*(51%RH) here at 6am. 35* at 9am. Gefs? It's caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What are your thoughts on the potential arctic outbreak. GEFS seems less enthusiastic (looks like more spread rather than a completely different look) Do you know which suite scored better so far? GEPS seems to be more in the middle, so potentially best way to go until the ensembles line up. No concrete thoughts about it yet. That's light years from now in this pattern. More just glancing at it. I guess I'd lean more towards the eps, though, because I think it's best equipped to handle the northern blocking. Feels like gefs may be playing catch up a bit with that. We'll see, plenty to track now while we wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs us usually last to the party all the time Like I said several days back the GFS is a follower, not a leader. Can't remember last time it was first to the party in forecasting a significant weather event. It flips and flops from one run to the next. Its ensembles are the better way to go beyond day 3-4 but even they can have big swings. No matter there is significant potential later in the coming week. As I said yesterday I'm leaning more towards freezing and/or frozen precip especially inland areas. If some of the ensembles are on the right track could be a significant Arctic shot in the days centered around Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 This is one of those rare times during a La Niña that the Pacific blocking does better than the 11-15 day forecast. New run for late week storm Old day 11-15 day range runs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 23 minutes ago, MANDA said: Like I said several days back the GFS is a follower, not a leader. Can't remember last time it was first to the party in forecasting a significant weather event. It flips and flops from one run to the next. Its ensembles are the better way to go beyond day 3-4 but even they can have big swings. No matter there is significant potential later in the coming week. As I said yesterday I'm leaning more towards freezing and/or frozen precip especially inland areas. If some of the ensembles are on the right track could be a significant Arctic shot in the days centered around Christmas. During La Nina winters in the absence of blocking if you're talking about a phasing system which involves major northern stream involvement the GFS has a tendency to be better. But in this case with the strong -NAO and us dealing more with an existing system undergoing a redevelopment there is a much better chance the other models are likely correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: During La Nina winters in the absence of blocking if you're talking about a phasing system which involves major northern stream involvement the GFS has a tendency to be better. But in this case with the strong -NAO and us dealing more with an existing system undergoing a redevelopment there is a much better chance the other models are likely correct. Would kind of agree with this as the Euro tends to leave too much energy over the SW in phasing situations. It is a known bias. Once you factor that into a forecast and the EURO catches on it does better than the GFS in that it will stick to a solution that is closer to reality. Even if the GFS latches onto the phase first it still swings wildly with the track, at least most of the time. GFS has known bias of being too far east initially with major coastal storms only to trend then back to the west in the days leading up to the event. Sometimes may have to wait until 48 hours for GFS to latch onto a hit. If the GFS has no other model support I tend to take it with a very large grain of salt. As is the case with the event slated for later this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Not surprisingly the GFS brought the storm back, but it's warm for the coast. Have to go well to the northwest to see snow. 12z GGEM is also a big rainstorm. Obviously plenty of time for this to trend colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Not surprisingly the GFS brought the storm back, but it's warm for the coast. Have to go well to the northwest to see snow. 12z GGEM is also a big rainstorm. Obviously plenty of time for this to trend colder. GFS decided to come back to planet earth at 12z. Horrible model. There is still plenty of time with this and hopefully we some eastern progression with the developing low instead of a rainstorm for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: GFS decided to come back to planet earth at 12z. Horrible model. There is still plenty of time with this and hopefully we some eastern progression with the developing low instead of a rainstorm for most. It's not horrible if it ends up right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Still way to tucked. its slipping away. Maybe n/w can cash in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still way to tucked. its slipping away. Maybe n/w can cash in What ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It's not horrible if it ends up right Yes it is. Most models correct as we get closer in time to an event. The GooFuS is always late to the party and frequently on it's own little Island. All other major models were showing a coastal low days before the GFS. This model has major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still way to tucked. its slipping away. Maybe n/w can cash in Lol slipping away 6 days away are you kidding me. Take it easy and it’s also the GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes it is. Most models correct as we get closer in time to an event. The GooFuS is always late to the party and frequently on it's own little Island. All other major models were showing a coastal low days before the GFS. This model has major issues. Event is still 6 days out and hasn't happened yet 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still way to tucked. its slipping away. Maybe n/w can cash in Yeah we arent doing this this year. 2 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Lol slipping away 6 days away are you kidding me. Take it easy and it’s also the GFS Euro's all alone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Event is still 6 days out and hasn't happened yet Yeah no kidding. Euro, CMC, and even ICON had a secondary developing and affecting the area with rain/snow days ago. GFS had a weak low headed to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 hours ago, snywx said: Deep winter incoming for the interior 4-8” looks like a sure bet for Sun-Mon for those along the I-84 corridor . I agree. Even though I'm only supposed to get 2" maybe 3" tomorrow. Looking at long range forecasts, I can see us getting 15", maybe more from tomorrow thru Christmas day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's all alone now And that doesn’t change 6 days out. Let’s be realistic now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Lol slipping away 6 days away are you kidding me. Take it easy and it’s also the GFS The cmc an ukie also show a hugger. So it's not just the gfs. I understand its 6 days away is an eternity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Why dont we concentrate on tomorrows storm instead of obsessing over a storm a week from now? anytime this forum gets all hyped up a week out… It always leads to disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still way to tucked. its slipping away. Maybe n/w can cash in That spread looks great. With the HP oriented the way it's depicted, boundary winds would be more N than NE for most of the individual members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: Why dont we concentrate on tomorrows storm instead of obsessing over a storm a week from now? anytime this forum gets all hyped up a week out… It always leads to disappointment. Rain for most with some wet mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Rain for most with some wet mood flakes Yeh… just like Thursday looks too Someone’s gonna do very well on the interior sections tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Yeh… just like Thursday looks too Someone’s gonna do very well on the interior sections tomorrow Yup. I'm looking at 2-4 in MHV. Poconos and Catskills could get 6 with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Looking past this threat some potential for something around for 20th, might get hostile with cutters after that as the se ridge flexes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looking past this threat some potential for something around for 20th, might get hostile with cutters after that as the se ridge flexes Depends on the model suite that wins. GEFS has more of a cutter risk look with the trough in the center of the country. EPS has the trough east and frigid and blocking further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Expected NYS totals tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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