Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The Euro is definitely pumping up potential for this Thursday. It's just going to be difficult to sustain enough cold air here without cold HP locked in to our north and a good 50/50 low. Then again the actual storm track it is depicting would seem to be a rain to snow track with possibly accumulating snows region-wide. Still, I'd need to see more runs showing this to have much confidence in it. WX/PT 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: We need more of a press. Plenty of time. The primary being so far north to start is the problem but its been trending south over time. But like you said lots of time for changes. GFS on an island right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Both CMC and Euro bring a significant storm to the area with a mixed bag but also bring snow even to the coast while GFS sends a weak low to Bermuda. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Looks like a slightly tamer version of that long duration Ground Hogs Day 2021 storm. Coastal hugger like that one too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Something funky about this year. I've been saying since November. Just peeking at the extended 00z eps. The look from the 12z yesterday has held serve. What raised an eyebrow for me is this curious little move on the cluster analysis. Check out the arctic profile on last night's leading cluster. That was the 2nd place cluster on yesterday's run. So last night it takes the lead? Thought that was a bit interesting. They're centered on Europe, so rotate your screen accordingly. (Green border just means -NAO profile) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 06z gfs waits until Monday, but at least showing something this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 i’d sign uo for the euro in a heartbeat on the other hand the GFS, yeah we just should set it on fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: i’d sign uo for the euro in a heartbeat on the other hand the GFS, yeah we just should set it on fire. Gefs folded 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Moving the right direction on the GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 25F this morning. Colder than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Deep winter incoming for the interior 4-8” looks like a sure bet for Sun-Mon for those along the I-84 corridor . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 here in the Berkshires, expecting anywhere from 4-6 inches of snow tomorrow into Monday AM. It's 27F back home in HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gefs folded 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Moving the right direction on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Upton waiting (as they should) to commit to anything for the late week system: There remains a high degree of uncertainty for what may happen late week, but the current thinking is that shortwave energy associated with the cold front of the large cyclone over the Great Plains shifts toward the East Coast on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This may result in the redevelopment of a deepening surface cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and into Friday. There remains questions as to the degree of deepening, placement of the low in relation to our area, surface temperatures, interactions with the trough that remains to the east of the area, as well as the timing of development. Additionally, there isn't much eastward progression with the upper-level flow so the low may meander a bit into the weekend. As a result, this remains a fairly uncertain forecast with any specifics difficult to pinpoint at this time. For now, capped PoPs at chance for much of the timeframe with a mix of rain and snow possible for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 got down to 26 this morning. Feels like 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What’s not to like about this morning’s 06z GFS / GEFS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Tatamy said: What’s not to like about this morning’s 06z GFS / GEFS? Gfs us usually last to the party all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs us usually last to the party all the time The 06z run with the IVT feature is certainly interesting to look at. The GEFS has been continuing to show the event even while the OP went AWOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: The 06z run with the IVT feature is certainly interesting to look at. The GEFS has been continuing to show the event even while the OP went AWOL. Upgrade fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Tatamy said: What’s not to like about this morning’s 06z GFS / GEFS? I misinterpreted both posts as meaning 2 opposing views thus the confused emoji. I like where the GFS headed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I misinterpreted both posts as meaning 2 opposing views thus the confused emoji. I like where the GFS headed. I agree with Ant about the GFS in terms of consistency. As a PA guy I will take the 06z solution- knowing full well that there will be something totally different at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 You know the late week storm is going to be a slow moving cutoff when the jet stream reverses along whole US-Canada border. Can you translate this to easy words for the slow among us?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The 06z run with the IVT feature is certainly interesting to look at. The GEFS has been continuing to show the event even while the OP went AWOL.This sounds like the adults in Muppet Babies to me.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6z GEFS... look at member 14. Right now the GEFS are catching back up to the other guidance, so not as many hits. But there are still quite a few solid hits 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 A rare storm that could last 2-3 days instead of our typical event which is in and out in 12-24 hours. . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upgrade fail https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd The GFS was not included in tonights blend past day 4 at all. The ensemble means again support low development most consistent with the ECMWF. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 45° A system will bring rain and snow to parts of the region late tomorrow into Monday. Some areas could see a light accumulation. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.4° Newark: 30-Year: 46.3°; 15-Year: 47.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 48.3° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 One of the few Decembers when the AO made it to -4 or lower. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 10Dec2022 -4.0676 Decembers with a -4 or lower reading 2022 2000 1995 1968 1966 1962 1950 Lower than -5 2010 2009 1976 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 48 minutes ago, Newman said: 6z GEFS... look at member 14. Right now the GEFS are catching back up to the other guidance, so not as many hits. But there are still quite a few solid hits The GEFS has been showing these hits for a few runs now. The problem has been with the OP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: Something funky about this year. I've been saying since November. Just peeking at the extended 00z eps. The look from the 12z yesterday has held serve. What raised an eyebrow for me is this curious little move on the cluster analysis. Check out the arctic profile on last night's leading cluster. That was the 2nd place cluster on yesterday's run. So last night it takes the lead? Thought that was a bit interesting. They're centered on Europe, so rotate your screen accordingly. (Green border just means -NAO profile) What are your thoughts on the potential arctic outbreak. GEFS seems less enthusiastic (looks like more spread rather than a completely different look) Do you know which suite scored better so far? GEPS seems to be more in the middle, so potentially best way to go until the ensembles line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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