LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC snowfall 2000 12 29 -4.688…13.4” 1995 12 19 -4.353…11.5” 1962 12 31 -4.159…4.5” December 1995 was an underperformer....we were supposed to get 15-20 inches of snow in that storm and somehow ended up with about 8 lol. LGA got 14 and Islip got 11. That was one of the biggest differences I've ever seen between JFK/NYC (who both got about 8) and LGA with 14. That was a two or even three day storm and a jet skid off of the runway at JFK on the second day and ended up in Jamaica Bay. Snow cover from that storm stuck around for the Jan blizzard. We had snowcovered backroads on Long Island the entire time between the two storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Franklin0529 said: They said he's not banned. Just mia cause the pattern looks good. I believe rjay said he's not banned Something seems wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Something seems wrong Well hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: December 1995 was an underperformer....we were supposed to get 15-20 inches of snow in that storm and somehow ended up with about 8 lol. LGA got 14 and Islip got 11. That was one of the biggest differences I've ever seen between JFK/NYC (who both got about 8) and LGA with 14. That was a two or even three day storm and a jet skid off of the runway at JFK on the second day and ended up in Jamaica Bay. Snow cover from that storm stuck around for the Jan blizzard. We had snowcovered backroads on Long Island the entire time between the two storms. We had very heavy snow during the morning and then a lull most of the day as the transfer was happening. Round 2 took a while to get going and wasn't quite as impressive as forecast but still received 9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Well hopefully not I mean maybe with his account. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: I mean maybe with his account. Oh ok. Maybe so. Are u an admin?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Oh ok. Maybe so. Are u an admin?? Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. He was a troll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. He was a troll. I know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why are la ninas more common than el ninos? imagine if we had a 3 year el nino lol Wouldn't say they're more common than El Ninos, it seemed like in the 80s and 90s until the major Nina in 98-99, El Nino was a lot more common and we also had the super 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos. Maybe it's a cyclical pattern like the AMO, I'm sure others with more data/expertise can elaborate. But part of it is also where these marine heatwaves set up. When they set up near Indonesia/Australia, they can supercharge any Nina pattern (what drives the Nina isn't just the cool E Pac waters, it's the warm water in the W Pacific) and the hostile MJO phases in winter. That's what killed us in 18-19 and 19-20. So these different factors sometimes amplify and interfere with one another, making older analogs tougher to use. Climate change likely plays a role in these crazy marine heatwaves we're seeing, and they definitely have a huge impact since the amount of heat they transfer to the atmosphere drives the downstream patterns. One interesting more local factor might be what happens as the Greenland ice sheet keeps melting. That's created a cold water pool near Greenland from the melted ice, which might help cause more +NAO patterns. Hopefully I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Wouldn't say they're more common than El Ninos, it seemed like in the 80s and 90s until the major Nina in 98-99, El Nino was a lot more common and we also had the super 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos. Maybe it's a cyclical pattern like the AMO, I'm sure others with more data/expertise can elaborate. But part of it is also where these marine heatwaves set up. When they set up near Indonesia/Australia, they can supercharge any Nina pattern (what drives the Nina isn't just the cool E Pac waters, it's the warm water in the W Pacific) and the hostile MJO phases in winter. That's what killed us in 18-19 and 19-20. So these different factors sometimes amplify and interfere with one another, making older analogs tougher to use. Climate change likely plays a role in these crazy marine heatwaves we're seeing, and they definitely have a huge impact since the amount of heat they transfer to the atmosphere drives the downstream patterns. One interesting more local factor might be what happens as the Greenland ice sheet keeps melting. That's created a cold water pool near Greenland from the melted ice, which might help cause more +NAO patterns. Hopefully I'm wrong. It's interesting that when we had more el ninos (during the 80s) we also had our lowest snowfall averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We had very heavy snow during the morning and then a lull most of the day as the transfer was happening. Round 2 took a while to get going and wasn't quite as impressive as forecast but still received 9" It almost seems like a combo of Dec 2003 and Jan 2011. More like Dec 2003 though because Round 2 with that underperformed here. Jan 2011 was a case where it actually overperformed and we got close to 20"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Don’t know with any scientific reason but aren’t La Nina’s just the “normal/neutral “ conditions (Ie, Hadley cell ) but stronger -whereas El Niños are the opposite of both ? Wouldn’t that lend to La Nina’s being a more “natural” variant ? Idk - just speculating. Would be curious for someone to know the statistical variation and also why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's interesting that when we had more el ninos (during the 80s) we also had our lowest snowfall averages. Coincided with hostile NAO and AO I think, but again others with better data/insight can elaborate. 97-98 which I remember was just overwhelmed by the Nino and too warm. A few degrees cooler and it would've been a very nice winter since there were plenty of coastal storms. Interior areas did pretty well. I'd rather have the Ninos because often they're the winters that have the massive STJ/Pacific moisture laden blizzards like Jan 2016, PDII in 2003, Feb 1983. The Mar 1993 Superstorm was probably helped by the Nino that year too (though it was a weak Nino). The soul crushing 2/6/10 Nino blizzard just missed us but we still did well that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 GFS shows nothing once again and is a sheared out mess. CMC still has the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: GFS shows nothing once again and is a sheared out mess. CMC still has the storm. GFS is a bit Grinchy overall. Colder before cutters and rain through Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattinpa said: GFS is a bit Grinchy overall. Colder before cutters and rain through Christmas. The GFS went from a deep trough to ridge in one run. The GFS is garbage 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The GFS went from a deep trough to ridge in one run. The GFS is garbage It's having serious issues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's having serious issues. GEFS provides a much different story than the OP. Some big runs on some of the members for next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The GFS went from a deep trough to ridge in one run. The GFS is garbage True. I still think we have a decent chance for snow in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro coming in Nothing like the GFS so far. Might be a tad southeast due to further south confluence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 What a wild storm on the euro Long duration 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 ECM with the most insane double barreled fujiwara crawling coastal ever bravo lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a wild storm on the euro Long duration Snow? I don’t have the Euro maps. Thanks for the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, mattinpa said: Snow? I don’t have the Euro maps. Thanks for the updates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Feeling more confident about a miller B transfer off Delmarva. Surface temps a bit iffy for immediate coast but still good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: Snow? I don’t have the Euro maps. Thanks for the updates. Lots of mixed bag for a while near the coast then colder and snowier 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Feeling more confident about a miller B transfer off Delmarva. Surface temps a bit iffy for immediate coast but still good. We need more of a press. Plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models basically held serve. GFS still lost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Models basically held serve. GFS still lost. Got better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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