Allsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep that would be frigid. Would be nice to get a large snow event then not have to see it all melted in 3 days. Cold pattern around Christmas this year? Would be a modern day miracle 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3km NAM anyone haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 there's a norlun threat sunday evening but these events are impossible to pinpoint until they develop 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: there's a norlun threat sunday evening but these events are impossible to pinpoint until they develop Been a signature for this on a few runs now but yes impossible to pinpoint from this far out. Most of the time they are over modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Evolving pattern has potential. Ensembles (MMU attached) look promising. Bigger question for me is do the positive temperature departures we've racked up so far this month (+4 to +5 degrees) get completely wiped out by the end of the month. Don't think we quite make it but it is possible. Places along and north of Rt. 80 and west of 287 still look like they could pickup C-2" amounts, especially highest elevations with the Sunday night - Monday morning event. Then we move onto the potential late this coming week. Way to early for those details but in my mind colder and more frozen precip is the way to lean right now, especially inland.As a simpleton who lives right next to MMU, what do these pretty graphs and colors mean?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, North and West said: As a simpleton who lives right next to MMU, what do these pretty graphs and colors mean? . Runs of the same model with minor differences. GFS, CMC, Euro. The color refers to the total snowfall on the run for mmu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Runs of the same model with minor differences. GFS, CMC, Euro. The color refers to the total snowfall on the run for mmu. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cold pattern around Christmas this year? Would be a modern day miracle Maybe that record -EPO block back in November changed our typical pattern of recent years? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maybe that record -EPO block back in November changed our typical pattern of recent years? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 It would be nice to have a little snow on the ground for Christmas, even at the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Tomorrow will be another cool day with highs in the lower and middle 40s. A system could bring some rain or perhaps wet snow to parts of the region Sunday night into Monday. Some areas could see a light accumulation of snow. With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. The latest EPS weeklies suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.6473 today. On December 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.147 (RMM). The December 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.994 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.1° (normal). 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Please just decommission the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Yep that would be frigid. Would be nice to get a large snow event then not have to see it all melted in 3 days. Dirty old snow/slush is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Arctic outbreak look. Cross polar flow on this. I hope the EPS has the PAC right! Here was the GEFS, seems to be a bit less blocking. Wouldn't mind a blend! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC snowfall 2000 12 29 -4.688…13.4” 1995 12 19 -4.353…11.5” 1962 12 31 -4.159…4.5” 12/31/62 Central park low temp was 4 and max was 13. Downside: only 16.3" snow winter of 62-62 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 39 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Please just decommission the GFS. I think the extreme south solution for the late week storm that the last 2 GFS runs are showing is unlikely, but we can't rule it out. Suppression is at least a slight possibility if the blocking is too strong. It's good that it looks likely that we're gonna have an extended cold pattern in here for mid to late December, and obviously it gives us a decent possibility of scoring at some point. But we do have the possibility of it just being a cold/dry pattern. Hopefully that won't be the case, but it's a slight concern with the level of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I think the extreme south solution for the late week storm that the last 2 GFS runs are showing is unlikely, but we can't rule it out. Suppression is at least a slight possibility if the blocking is too strong. It's good that it looks likely that we're gonna have an extended cold pattern in here for mid to late December, and obviously it gives us a decent possibility of scoring at some point. But we do have the possibility of it just being a cold/dry pattern. Hopefully that won't be the case, but it's a slight concern with the level of blocking. Nothing can be ruled out from an inland runner to a miss but It's just so flat and the low so far south and weak IMO. I just think the Euro and CMC are much more plausible. I would be shocked if the GFS is correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC snowfall 2000 12 29 -4.688…13.4” 1995 12 19 -4.353…11.5” 1962 12 31 -4.159…4.5” Don't forget 2010 with the boxing day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I think the extreme south solution for the late week storm that the last 2 GFS runs are showing is unlikely, but we can't rule it out. Suppression is at least a slight possibility if the blocking is too strong. It's good that it looks likely that we're gonna have an extended cold pattern in here for mid to late December, and obviously it gives us a decent possibility of scoring at some point. But we do have the possibility of it just being a cold/dry pattern. Hopefully that won't be the case, but it's a slight concern with the level of blocking. The Arctic blocking is strong but the NAO isn't and it will be weakening gradually. This is not as extreme as 2010 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Did Snowman get banned? This is where he makes an appearance to tell us why the GFS is correct even though he hates the GFS. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Did Snowman get banned? This is where he makes an appearance to tell us why the GFS is correct even though he hates the GFS. They said he's not banned. Just mia cause the pattern looks good. I believe rjay said he's not banned 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 hours ago, TriPol said: Don't forget 2010 with the boxing day blizzard. The AO had risen to above -4 when the Boxing Day blizzard developed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe that record -EPO block back in November changed our typical pattern of recent years? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Those 80s Decembers were amazing for cold.....December 1980 may have had our coldest Christmas of all time, -1, and even a white Christmas (although it was just a dusting), December 1983 was another very cold December as was December 1989 (coldest overall December which was amazing to get in the late 80s but a historic flip for January, February and March after what we had in November and December.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The AO had risen to above -4 when the Boxing Day blizzard developed. How low did the AO/NAO get in December 2010, Don? Below -5 SD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said: They said he's not banned. Just mia cause the pattern looks good. I believe rjay said he's not banned I hope he's okay, you know he'd be here when everyone was panicking and jumping ship. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I hope he's okay, you know he'd be here when everyone was panicking and jumping ship. Maybe he's embarrassed. He was trash talking mets in here an the admins gave him an earful. But they said he wasn't banned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: You won't get many of those in a La Nina Jan 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 hours ago, jm1220 said: There’s never been an era I can think of where it’s been “easy” to get a Boston to DC big snowstorm. You have the very rare events like PDII in 2003, Blizzard of 1996 along with smaller 6-12” type events like that but there are usually problems with the storm type or overall setup to cause it to favor the Mid Atlantic, New England or neither. If there’s anything I can think of to help, it’s that we have to get this Nina pattern gone which we’ve been stuck with the last several winters. El Niño loaded moist patterns with some blocking are ideal. why are la ninas more common than el ninos? imagine if we had a 3 year el nino lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Even regular Nam starting to pick up on the norlun signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 hours ago, MANDA said: Evolving pattern has potential. Ensembles (MMU attached) look promising. Bigger question for me is do the positive temperature departures we've racked up so far this month (+4 to +5 degrees) get completely wiped out by the end of the month. Don't think we quite make it but it is possible. Places along and north of Rt. 80 and west of 287 still look like they could pickup C-2" amounts, especially highest elevations with the Sunday night - Monday morning event. Then we move onto the potential late this coming week. Way to early for those details but in my mind colder and more frozen precip is the way to lean right now, especially inland. I dont believe avg temperatures mean much anymore, you can get snow with both positive and negative departures, avg temp is just bookkeeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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