winterwx21 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS just shows that there's a big range of possibilities. Obviously model skill still isn't very good at 6 days out. We can have anything from the storm being suppressed too far to the south, to it being too tucked in and mostly rain. Hopefully a middle ground solution will happen. At least we have something interesting to track for the first time this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Really comes down to how far north the system can initially get...anything from a track too close, perfect, or even a miss is possible at this stage. What ever happened to the good OL’ days when you had a storm coming up the coast with DC to Boston gets snow blitzed. The past decade or so everything’s all about the timing and threading the needle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GFS just shows that there's a big range of possibilities. Obviously model skill still isn't very good at 6 days out. We can have anything from the storm being suppressed too far to the south, to it being too tucked in and mostly rain. Hopefully a middle ground solution will happen. At least we have something interesting to track for the first time this season. Exactly. This is just gravy at this point, I don’t normally ‘expect’ snow until Jan. If I can work a decent storm down by me or even up where I work, I’ll take that happily as a nice pre-season bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: What ever happened to the good OL’ days when you had a storm coming up the coast with DC to Boston gets snow blitzed. The past decade or so everything’s all about the timing and threading the needle. That’s my dream, I’m not a selfish weenie. I want everyone in on the fun. Give me a classic megalopolis bomb any day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GEFS 12z 162 hours GEFS 06z 168 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: What ever happened to the good OL’ days when you had a storm coming up the coast with DC to Boston gets snow blitzed. The past decade or so everything’s all about the timing and threading the needle. You won't get many of those in a La Nina 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: What ever happened to the good OL’ days when you had a storm coming up the coast with DC to Boston gets snow blitzed. The past decade or so everything’s all about the timing and threading the needle. That's like a once a decade kinda storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That's like a once a decade kinda storm It might be coming at 240 on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: What ever happened to the good OL’ days when you had a storm coming up the coast with DC to Boston gets snow blitzed. The past decade or so everything’s all about the timing and threading the needle. There’s never been an era I can think of where it’s been “easy” to get a Boston to DC big snowstorm. You have the very rare events like PDII in 2003, Blizzard of 1996 along with smaller 6-12” type events like that but there are usually problems with the storm type or overall setup to cause it to favor the Mid Atlantic, New England or neither. If there’s anything I can think of to help, it’s that we have to get this Nina pattern gone which we’ve been stuck with the last several winters. El Niño loaded moist patterns with some blocking are ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 So the 6z GFS goes from a raging snowstorm nor'easter to a 12z total miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 New GFS may have blown it's engine- still waiting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 39 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: What ever happened to the good OL’ days when you had a storm coming up the coast with DC to Boston gets snow blitzed. The past decade or so everything’s all about the timing and threading the needle. What ever happened to extreme winter cold fronts with 50mph wind gusts and snow squalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, lee59 said: So the 6z GFS goes from a raging snowstorm nor'easter to a 12z total miss. I'd expect nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: So the 6z GFS goes from a raging snowstorm nor'easter to a 12z total miss. Look at the ensemble data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The possibilty of SECS in the month of December is rarity around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I'll take a nickel and dime event or a SWFE with a front end thump if the pattern can't produce an all out snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Not this run looks like rain on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Primary hanging on for dear life on EC Euro: CMC: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 With the volatility already baked into this month and the massive changes made to the system the past 48 hours I wouldn’t expect to start seeing a more coherent and well supported outcome until the back end of the weekend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: With the volatility already baked into this month and the massive changes made to the system the past 48 hours I wouldn’t expect to start seeing a more coherent and well supported outcome until the back end of the weekend at least. This is why you can't jump off the ledge with each model run a week out with so much in play. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 38 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Not this run looks like rain on the euro. Very close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very close We’ll probably need the primary to squeeze south of Chicago in order for the the secondary to take a benchmark instead of hugger track. You can see 12z Euro comparison with the 6z GFS. That Euro primary cut just a little too far north. If the 12z guidance has any clue, then the 12z GFS extreme suppression track looks like an outlier. So maybe this will turn out to be a battle between a benchmark or hugger track. Something in between those two would work. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I'm pretty confident we'll see a near benchmark track. The only concern is how far north the primary starts off. That's also the reason why I think we can rule out suppression. Also the trend is your friend 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Eps is full of winter 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Eps is full of winter Yup. Starting next week its chance after chance. If we dont score in this pattern something is seriously wrong. Looks to be a fun couple weeks at minimum. I think the late week storm will continue to trend south. The block means business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: All snowy Decembers? NYC snowfall 2000 12 29 -4.688…13.4” 1995 12 19 -4.353…11.5” 1962 12 31 -4.159…4.5” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC snowfall 2000 12 29 -4.688…13.4” 1995 12 19 -4.353…11.5” 1962 12 31 -4.159…4.5” Good chance we see something in nyc this month, imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is full of winter Arctic outbreak look. Cross polar flow on this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Evolving pattern has potential. Ensembles (MMU attached) look promising. Bigger question for me is do the positive temperature departures we've racked up so far this month (+4 to +5 degrees) get completely wiped out by the end of the month. Don't think we quite make it but it is possible. Places along and north of Rt. 80 and west of 287 still look like they could pickup C-2" amounts, especially highest elevations with the Sunday night - Monday morning event. Then we move onto the potential late this coming week. Way to early for those details but in my mind colder and more frozen precip is the way to lean right now, especially inland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Arctic outbreak look. Cross polar flow on this. Yep that would be frigid. Would be nice to get a large snow event then not have to see it all melted in 3 days. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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