bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 AO getting closer to -4 which would increase the chances of more blocking JFM and a possible SSW. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 09Dec2022-3.6473 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would take the 0.5 and run! Get on the board. hell me too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: AO getting closer to -4 which would increase the chances of more blocking JFM and a possible SSW. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 09Dec2022-3.6473 @EasternLI about to get arrested for aggravated assault on the SPV. I’ll bail you out brother. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: AO getting closer to -4 which would increase the chances of more blocking JFM and a possible SSW. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 09Dec2022-3.6473 Which Decembers were able to hit -4 or lower at least one day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I would take the 0.5 and run! Get on the board. My rain will be colder. Woo hoo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Even I saw snow showers I actually went to chase this little event that night at a higher elevation and this is what I saw. I was convinced that I was not going to see anything at my place. It turned out that I didn’t have to. In any case it lasted less than 15 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 FWIW the 3k NAM is colder than the regular formula NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: FWIW the 3k NAM is colder than the regular formula NAM. I saw that also. It does not get a lot of weight for this purpose however its solution is interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The only 3 Decembers with a lowest AO reading in the 4s were 2000, 1995, and 1962. Several years like 2010, 2009, and 1976 were in the -5s. There were numerous years in the -3s. So any December dipping below -3 had usually had follow up JFM blocking or a SSW. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2000 12 29 -4.688 1995 12 19 -4.353 1962 12 31 -4.159 2000/2001 was a real good winter, kicked off the historic new century snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only 3 Decembers with a lowest AO reading in the 4s were 2000, 1995, and 1962. Several years like 2010, 2009, and 1976 were in the -5s. There were numerous years in the -3s. So any December dipping below -3 had usually had follow up JFM blocking or a SSW. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2000 12 29 -4.688 1995 12 19 -4.353 1962 12 31 -4.159 Copied from the MA forum. We have a shot at touching -4!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: @EasternLI about to get arrested for aggravated assault on the SPV. I’ll bail you out brother. Appreciate it. I'm in position with the brass knuckles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I know its the ICON, but watching a huge storm getting absolutely shredded to pieces is fascinating From this: to this: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Copied from the MA forum. We have a shot at touching -4!! What a spread at the end there… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: What a spread at the end there… What, a model spread of +3 to -6 is totally normal and definitely not hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, Nibor said: What a spread at the end there… Ha yeah, between that and the MJO spread we should have an easy LR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS ticking south and colder for Sunday. If trends continue we should def get snow to mix in and northern areas may even pick up a light accumulation. With strong blocking more south ticks are possible vs the usual last minute NW ticks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only 3 Decembers with a lowest AO reading in the 4s were 2000, 1995, and 1962. Several years like 2010, 2009, and 1976 were in the -5s. There were numerous years in the -3s. So any December dipping below -3 had usually had follow up JFM blocking or a SSW. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2000 12 29 -4.688 1995 12 19 -4.353 1962 12 31 -4.159 All snowy Decembers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 ewr's biggest snowstorm from this month was 3.3" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z CMC with an intense tucked in solution for 12/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Wow CMC with a BIG bump SE. Very close. Starts as snow everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ewr's biggest snowstorm from this month was 3.3" when there's a lot of blocking you need a strong jet to push systems up here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, forkyfork said: when there's a lot of blocking you need a strong jet to push systems up here So what are your thoughts for the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I’m gonna let the weenie flag fly for the 16th and go all in on hoping for some decent snow down by the coast. Gotta see continued trend toward a solution that works for all of us, and I def see some potential there for a fun event. This weekend I’ll be happy if you guys catch some good flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: MJO is a non factor right now, probably for the better. Agreed, as long is we stay low amplitude in any direction we can get it done. Track will be key anything tucked will torch the coast as coastal waters are still in the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS - colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS - colder Cmc more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS CMC was great but this is one ugly run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS Ah the southern slider solution. No worries. At this point in time I’d rather see this than a cutter. Growing potential for a winter storm threat late next week. This block means business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 While the GFS is unlikely we still have a -4 AO. So an offshore track is plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Really comes down to how far north the system can initially get...anything from a track too close, perfect, or even a miss is possible at this stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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