December 2022

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The size of the snow events can be quite variable in the -3 to -4 -AO range during December in NYC. Anywhere from a trace to 1 to around 10.5”. So the AO dipping to around -4 in itself can’t tell you much how much snowfall NYC will get in December. We can usually count on bigger events the closer that we get to -5. That seems to be the level when the AO can start to push back against any negative Pacific influences. But a -4 in December is usually a good indication that there will be further blocking intervals JFM.

This does feel a lot like 12/13. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I think the best takeaway right now is from Bluewave in that such a strong -AO in Dec may correlate with recurrent blocking in JFM. 
 

Of course we all want a big one by the end of Dec, but if it doesn’t materialize at least we can hope for better chances going forward. 
 

Last Jan was nice and good for me as a cold lover but I remember we had a crazy progressive pattern that just didn’t yield a lot of excitement until 1/29, and that didn’t even pan out for a lot of us. Was lucky to be coastal for that event but of course it was mostly a NE storm. 
 

I am definitely feeling better about our winter prospects this year. Feels like it’s been too long since our last KU type storm, and I’m really hoping we score at least one whether it’s the end of Dec or the end of Feb.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I think the best takeaway right now is from Bluewave in that such a strong -AO in Dec may correlate with recurrent blocking in JFM. 
 

Of course we all want a big one by the end of Dec, but if it doesn’t materialize at least we can hope for better chances going forward. 
 

Last Jan was nice and good for me as a cold lover but I remember we had a crazy progressive pattern that just didn’t yield a lot of excitement until 1/29, and that didn’t even pan out for a lot of us. Was lucky to be coastal for that event but of course it was mostly a NE storm. 
 

I am definitely feeling better about our winter prospects this year. 

I got around 10 inches with that storm but we could of had more if there was a negative NAO. The AO saved us from getting rain. 

Long Island and SNE cashed in big time.

There was 1 run where the Nam had 36 Inches the day before the storm for NYC lol

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I got around 10 inches with that storm but we could of had more if there was a negative NAO. The AO saved us from getting rain. 

Long Island and SNE cashed in big time.

There was 1 run where the Nam had 36 Inches the day before the storm for NYC lol

Dude I was here for the NAM gigaweenie maps, it was hilarious. At one point it had me over like 40-50 inches. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1/29 was a fun storm with a lot of hype and excitement around it. Def enjoyed in Toms River area. 
 

Also was notably a very cold storm, at the peak in the early AM we were 22F. Perfect. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

1/29 was a fun storm with a lot of hype and excitement around it. Def enjoyed in Toms River area. 

How much did you get ?

[Snowlover11]

I’ll be happy at this point just to see a dusting. hopefully we can score a big one later on.

[Volcanic Winter]

16 inches. Perfect really, all things considered. Remember all the uncertainty and with the GFS shunting it out south and East with barely a dusting for anyone? Nail biter through and through. 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This does feel a lot like 12/13. 

It’s tough to compare analogs until the full monthly 500 mb composite is in. But the common theme of both months is a -PNA -AO. So we’ll need to verify some Pacific improvement in order to have a shot at above normal December snowfall in NYC. It could be something as simple as a transient Rockies Ridge able to produce an accumulating snow. But the long range ensembles aren’t really good enough to see short term details like that.

 

[Allsnow]

This -epo really popped the last few days on the ensembles. Looks like more of a 14/15 type pattern now 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

1/29 was a fun storm with a lot of hype and excitement around it. Def enjoyed in Toms River area. 
 

Also was notably a very cold storm, at the peak in the early AM we were 22F. Perfect. 

Wow that was Toms River? 12” from 1/29 in Long Beach, 14-15” where I live now. Definitely noticeable jackpot area in SW Suffolk and further east though. Deer Park must’ve had 20”. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure either the 12th or 16th will work out here. They are both embedded in the pattern transition phase. 

12th doesn't have much room to amplify and the 16th has a primary that's way too far north to start. 

It's likely after the 16th where we get our favorable pattern. Getting the 16th storm to work out would be a major bonus

Anything outside the 5 day period needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The model variations have been extreme this season 

Well said.  It amazes me the amount of posts that I see that are for events projected to be beyond the 5 day window.  It’s just fiction.

[SnoSki14]

Euro trending south with the primary for the 16th system. Still too far north for us but heading in a good direction 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Dude I was here for the NAM gigaweenie maps, it was hilarious. At one point it had me over like 40-50 inches. 

A year before that it was the turn of the CMC to produce the gigaweenie maps for the 1/31/21 event.  Many places in northern NJ and the other northern and western suburbs received 24-30” from that one.

[Volcanic Winter]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wow that was Toms River? 12” from 1/29 in Long Beach, 14-15” where I live now. Definitely noticeable jackpot area in SW Suffolk and further east though. Deer Park must’ve had 20”. 

Yeah dude, we scored. At one point my area was a potential jackpot zone, but it just didn’t explode fast enough and it became more of a LI / NE storm. Like I said, was still a wonderful event. I got skunked in 2/1/21 whereas where I work got 18 inches. And 20 was a turd of a winter, so it was nice to see some real snow again. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

This -epo really popped the last few days on the ensembles. Looks like more of a 14/15 type pattern now 

It's great to get all the ensembles to agree

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

A year before that it was the turn of the CMC to produce the gigaweenie maps for the 1/31/21 event.  Many places in northern NJ and the other northern and western suburbs received 24-30” from that one.

Yeah I only got about 5 inches down by me but where I work got 18. My first snowstorm with my new WRX though with fresh Blizzaks on it, so I had fun pulling up to my unplowed lot at work and driving over the fresh snow like it’s pavement. 

[binbisso]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Several mets are indicating that leading up to Christmas will be cold.  What are you basing toasty on ?  Various ensembles show a - EPO leading up to Christmas, a continued   - NAO, - AO and a neutral PNA.   I hope this year Christmas would at least be seasonal. 

He basis his forecast on the op gfs.

[brooklynwx99]

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a strong ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward

this deserves watching over the next few days

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Wow that was Toms River? 12” from 1/29 in Long Beach, 14-15” where I live now. Definitely noticeable jackpot area in SW Suffolk and further east though. Deer Park must’ve had 20”. 

We definitely had a bit of a secondary jackpot in sw suffolk, I came home from Albany for that storm and it was well worth it, I got about 20” or so in Lindenhurst. It still annoys me that we never got an reported snow totals from the south fork. They probably were approaching 30”

 

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This -epo really popped the last few days on the ensembles. Looks like more of a 14/15 type pattern now 

Yeah, I think 92W is giving a boost there. It really only popped up on modeling a few days ago. Then started trending to recurving to get mixed up in the Pacific Jet. I think this explains how the EPO snuck up on guidance. 

[EasternLI]

Eps was not interested in 92W at all originally. Now caving to the GEFS. I think what ultimately happens with this feature will be important. 

[lee59]

The models seem to be saying the same thing that has been happening for a while now, for the next 10 days the bulk of the cold air goes to our south and west.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The models seem to be saying the same thing that has been happening for a while now, for the next 10 days the bulk of the cold air goes to our south and west.

We don't need arctic air for snow

Pattern looks much better next week 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We don't need arctic air for snow

Pattern looks much better next week 

Tough in December w/o arctic air, Jan/Feb different story....

[SnoSki14]

Nam looks nice for northern zones for this Monday 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam looks nice for northern zones for this Monday 

overnight too which helps

[kat5hurricane]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This -epo really popped the last few days on the ensembles. Looks like more of a 14/15 type pattern now 

Don't you tease me. Best winter of my lifetime, the closest thing to a wall to wall winter that we'll get. The prospect of a -epo makes me all tingly.

[Brian5671]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Don't you tease me. Best winter of my lifetime, the closest thing to a wall to wall winter that we'll get. The prospect of a -epo makes me all tingly.

13/14 too...although March was bone dry which stunk.   

[EastonSN+]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Don't you tease me. Best winter of my lifetime, the closest thing to a wall to wall winter that we'll get. The prospect of a -epo makes me all tingly.

AO region is completely different. PV was over Canada. We do have a neg AO though so could be very interesting.