December 2022

[TriPol]

how does the euro look?

[inter]

Block goes crazy on the euro. Still rain for the 15th verbatim but it keeps trending better

[HeadInTheClouds]

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

how does the euro look?

Minor event, mostly N and W for the first one. 

[LoboLeader1]

 Currently 47 here. Fog was a real bad yesterday AM on the Hutch, reached a balmy high of 58.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

"White Juan" as we called it in the great white north, coming five months after Hurricane Juan hit Halifax hard in 2003. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2004&maand=2&dag=20&uur=000&var=1&map=2&model=noaa

Feb 19-20 2004 massive blizzard in Nova Scotia, PEI and parts of NL. 

Wikipedia article on it here: 

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Juan

 

Wow 2002-2003 was certainly very active.  One of our most underrated winters ever (and PD2 was one of our most underrated storms ever.)

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP has been the best spot since the super El Niño.

 

 

Individual events and the highest snowfall totals

2022

Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7

2021

Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1

2020

Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

wow Upton hasn't been the jackpot area since 2013- that's a big change! Between 1996 and 2013 all they did was win!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those patterns so much depend upon the orientation of the block.  The 12Z GEFS has it oriented on a positive tilt into NT and BC but in 4 days if the models orient it more over AK you obviously have a huge SE ridge.  It’s hard to get that 93-94 -EPO 

Didn't we also have it in 2013-14 and 2014-15 though?

 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, inter said:

Block goes crazy on the euro. Still rain for the 15th verbatim but it keeps trending better

Epo crashes in the long range 

[Volcanic Winter]

Not expecting to see a flake, except maybe one or two at work. But I’m very happy we appear to be in a much better position than a few days ago. 
 

Keep the faith, hoping we pull a white rabbit out of a beanie the rest of the month. 

[Brian5671]

That's a good look on the EPS-would be surprised if that doesn't deliver something.

[EastonSN+]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s does look like that even the coast could see their first wet snowflakes of the season Monday morning. But the system is moving very quickly and won’t really deepen until it gets further offshore. Later next week looks like a much stronger storm with the exact track still uncertain. You can see the spread between the Euro OP and EPS which is common for about 8 days out. So snowfall amounts and rain-snow line details will have to wait. This storm will be following a nearly -4 AO block which could cause the models to struggle until we get to within a few days of the event. 

 

Thanks Bluewave,

It must be extremely rare to reach a -4 AO and not receive a single snow event before it collapses.

[Volcanic Winter]

I’m all aboard Hunga Tonga having a hand in some of these unusual dynamics and volatility. I just saw this paper last night and finished reading through it, it appears initial observations underestimated the SO2 flux rather significantly (though still a lot less than  Pinatubo). However, the enormous instantaneous injection of water vapor remains a major variable. 
 

Just wanted to share the paper for anyone who may be interested. It’s dense and technical but is extremely informative and touches on HTHH’s substantial atmospheric and potentially climatological impact:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  40degs.(36/44) or +3.

GFS with 3" Monday.   Its Ens. is not playing along however:

Also looking Toasty towards Christmas?        Better have some snow cover pre-Holiday.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today:   50-53, wind n.-breezy, p. sunny, 36 tomorrow AM.

{was 55* at midnight}   50*(85%RH) here at 6am.     49* at 7am.        52* at Noon.        52* at 3pm.       48*  at 6pm.

[EastonSN+]

Below -4 possible people!

[the_other_guy]

up at Belleayre this morning. not worth a photo.

 

conditions are borderline spring conditions. 39F. Fog and drizzle with breaks of sun.

 

pretty awful start to the ski season… frankly it’s a miracle they’re open at all

[MJO812]

Rain on the gfs for the coast 

Primary is further north 

[Franklin0529]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rain on the gfs for the coast 

Primary is further north 

Disjointed mess on cmc. Looks like it's a n/w thing. Ct does decent

[EastonSN+]

Li gets some fun on CMC

[frd]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Also looking Toasty towards Christmas?        Better have some snow cover pre-Holiday.

Several mets are indicating that leading up to Christmas will be cold.  What are you basing toasty on ?  Various ensembles show a - EPO leading up to Christmas, a continued   - NAO, - AO and a neutral PNA.   I hope this year Christmas would at least be seasonal. 

[MJO812]

Just now, frd said:

Several mets are indicating that leading up to Christmas will be cold.  What are you basing toasty on ?  Various ensembles show a - EPO leading up to Christmas, a continued   - NAO, - AO and a neutral PNA.   I hope this year Christmas would at least be seasonal. 

It's not going to be toasty

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Li gets some fun on CMC

There is no cold air. Even overnight lows up this way are just below freezing.

you need a thread the needle event to manufacture cold air.

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

There is no cold air. Even overnight lows up this way are just below freezing.

you need a thread the needle event to manufacture cold air.

 

There is enough cold air for it to snow especially N and W. Wet bulbing helps too. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

I feel the system on the 16th may produce more than the first one. That blocking means business. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

There is no cold air. Even overnight lows up this way are just below freezing.

you need a thread the needle event to manufacture cold air.

 

I am technically in SW CT but yeah will be tough with the temp profile.

On the bright side my TWC app has me getting 1 to 3 with a low of 29.

Would be a big win.

[SnoSki14]

GFS showing the transfer now. Still not good for us but I don't see why it wouldn't continue trending 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS showing the transfer now. Still not good for us but I don't see why it wouldn't continue trending 

We usually score when the block begins to fade. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Bluewave,

It must be extremely rare to reach a -4 AO and not receive a single snow event before it collapses.

The size of the snow events can be quite variable in the -3 to -4 -AO range during December in NYC. Anywhere from a trace to 1 to around 10.5”. So the AO dipping to around -4 in itself can’t tell you much how much snowfall NYC will get in December. We can usually count on bigger events the closer that we get to -5. That seems to be the level when the AO can start to push back against any negative Pacific influences. But a -4 in December is usually a good indication that there will be further blocking intervals JFM.

[SnoSki14]

I'm not sure either the 12th or 16th will work out here. They are both embedded in the pattern transition phase. 

12th doesn't have much room to amplify and the 16th has a primary that's way too far north to start. 

It's likely after the 16th where we get our favorable pattern. Getting the 16th storm to work out would be a major bonus

Anything outside the 5 day period needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The model variations have been extreme this season 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We usually score when the block begins to fade. 

Problem is, it isnt a true block, more of a stout ridge. Big difference there. Ens werent very accurate with this 12+ days out. Now they are showing a big EPO /AO /NAO ridge bridge same time frame D+13 (again, mind you) so Im tentatively skeptical until we see this move into days 7-8ish. Past ninas LR ens have made many hobbyists and even pros look like suckers. Be cautious js.

[HeadInTheClouds]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure either the 12th or 16th will work out here. They are both embedded in the pattern transition phase. 

12th doesn't have much room to amplify and the 16th has a primary that's way too far north to start. 

It's likely after the 16th where we get our favorable pattern. Getting the 16th storm to work out would be a major bonus

Anything outside the 5 day period needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The model variations have been extreme this season 

It depends on what you mean by here because I could see both working out to some degree just N and W. Still too early to tell about the 16th.