Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 It does seem that when we see blocking in December we tend to see it again later in the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Huge blocking on the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge blocking on the gfs. We don’t want to go too overboard or it’s suppression depression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We don’t want to go too overboard or it’s suppression depression. I don't think we have to worry about that with a negative PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I don't think we have to worry about that with a negative PNA True, it’s going to be a battle between forcing if this pans out. You can get some wide spread snows with that. Starting in the Midwest and moving all the way to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: How well can they predict where the extreme blocking will show up from year to year? I'm guessing not well? They can’t since model skill quickly degrades beyond the 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 day intervals. The study below is only noting the increase in Greenland blocking. We have seen similar record blocks near Alaska over the same period. Plus other regions have seen record blocking. Also notice the range of increasing highs and lows of the NAO with more amplitude to the index. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4673 Greenland Blocking Index 1851–2015: a regional climate change signal We present an extended monthly and seasonal Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) from January 1851 to December 2015, which more than doubles the length of the existing published GBI series. We achieve this by homogenizing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c-based GBI and splicing it with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-based GBI. More recently, since 1981 there are significant GBI increases in all seasons and annually, with the strongest monthly increases in July and August. A recent clustering of high GBI values is evident in summer, when 7 of the top 11 values in the last 165 years – including the two latest years 2014 and 2015 – occurred since 2007. Also, 2010 is the highest GBI year in the annual, spring, winter and December series but 2011 is the record low GBI value in the spring and April series. Moreover, since 1851 there have been significant increases in GBI variability in May and especially December. December has also shown a significant clustering of extreme high and low GBI values since 2001, mirroring a similar, recently identified phenomenon in the December North Atlantic Oscillation index, suggesting a related driving mechanism. We discuss changes in hemispheric circulation that are associated with high compared with low GBI conditions. Our GBI time series should be useful for climatologists and other scientists interested in aspects and impacts of Arctic variability and change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: They can’t since model skill quickly degrades beyond the 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 day intervals. The study below is only noting the increase in Greenland blocking. We have seen similar record blocks near Alaska over the same period. Plus other regions have seen record blocking. Also notice the range of increasing highs and lows of the NAO with more amplitude to the index. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4673 Greenland Blocking Index 1851–2015: a regional climate change signal We present an extended monthly and seasonal Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) from January 1851 to December 2015, which more than doubles the length of the existing published GBI series. We achieve this by homogenizing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c-based GBI and splicing it with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-based GBI. More recently, since 1981 there are significant GBI increases in all seasons and annually, with the strongest monthly increases in July and August. A recent clustering of high GBI values is evident in summer, when 7 of the top 11 values in the last 165 years – including the two latest years 2014 and 2015 – occurred since 2007. Also, 2010 is the highest GBI year in the annual, spring, winter and December series but 2011 is the record low GBI value in the spring and April series. Moreover, since 1851 there have been significant increases in GBI variability in May and especially December. December has also shown a significant clustering of extreme high and low GBI values since 2001, mirroring a similar, recently identified phenomenon in the December North Atlantic Oscillation index, suggesting a related driving mechanism. We discuss changes in hemispheric circulation that are associated with high compared with low GBI conditions. Our GBI time series should be useful for climatologists and other scientists interested in aspects and impacts of Arctic variability and change. What's that huge double peak at the end? 2009-10 and 2010-11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: What's that huge double peak at the end? 2009-10 and 2010-11? Yes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We don’t want to go too overboard or it’s suppression depression. PNA will struggle to go positive in this pattern. I don't see suppression issues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yes. and the last time that happened was back in the 1780s during that famous New England winter? wow...if I remember correctly that was the winter with the snowstorms that buried entire houses. NYC and Philly may had over 100" of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I'm starting to think the vortex may be lucky to make it through December... If we do really travel down that path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: One step at a time, but that’s definitely quite bullish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and the last time that happened was back in the 1780s during that famous New England winter? wow...if I remember correctly that was the winter with the snowstorms that buried entire houses. NYC and Philly may had over 100" of snow You are thinking of 1779-1780 when Philly may have had one day above freezing in January which hasn’t happened since then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 12z eps end of the run 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z eps end of the run Beautiful if that map proves to be true 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z eps end of the run Both EPS and GEFS have great looks for us. Hard not to be intrigued when both are showing same progression. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Both EPS and GEFS have great looks for us. Hard not to be intrigued when both are showing same progression. The blocking is happening. That's not really too much in doubt anymore I think. Part of that process has already started. I understand the caution of some though too. There's a lot of moving parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 The block is 1080 on the gfs. Jeez. This pattern looks loaded. With a block that strong its going to be hard to break it down quickly 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 .........................with the proviso that it says the next 5 are way BN too. That 5 day BN period has been traveling with the model for days already. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Both EPS and GEFS have great looks for us. Hard not to be intrigued when both are showing same progression.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: 12z eps end of the run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 pretty classic look here with the Rockies ridging appearing as the block attenuates. this is where the window for a major storm opens 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 I'm increasingly optimistic about the forecast blocking and snowfall potential. Keep in mind that there are some adverse risks. Consider December 1958 and winter 1958-59 as an example. But those have been the exception, not the rule. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: The block is 1080 on the gfs. Jeez. This pattern looks loaded. With a block that strong its going to be hard to break it down quickly the change in the polar vortex forecast bodes well for Jan-March as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Looks terrible. Hate winter. A win would be cold and dry in that pattern, only hope 1 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Looks terrible. Hate winter. A win would be cold and dry in that pattern, only hope Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 48 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Looks terrible. Hate winter. A win would be cold and dry in that pattern, only hope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said: Looks terrible. Hate winter. A win would be cold and dry in that pattern, only hope Good morning all. forky must be giving a Master Class. As always….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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