December 2022

[lee59]

So would folks rather have a colder climate with less snow like the 70s and 80s or a climate like we have which is milder with more snow. I think a good point was made by Volcanic Winter, when will it get so mild that we start to lose the elevated snow totals.

[donsutherland1]

The CFSv2 weeklies seemingly turn the calendar back to winter 2001-02 and now show little prospect of cooling in a dramatic shift from yesterday’s run. Fortunately, beyond week 2, skill is low. Let’s see what the EPS weeklies show tomorrow.

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There has been some good discussion in the Mid Atl forum wrt warming and how marginal events just dont pan out like they did a decade or so ago. I can attest to that where im at.....moved here in 2010 as this was 20 miles nw of philly and was almost always frozen in marginal events. We just dont cash in during marginal events here anymore....people can draw their own conclusions but the marginal line is now 15 miles to my nw. Time to relocate again?

I dont think the last 10 years were that noticable.

I lived in Coastal CT my whole life, and although it feels like falls and December are much warmer, less snowy, I feel that March and April have gotten snowier. Heck we just had a trace of snow in May 3 years ago.

Now, my grandfather told of a time when they drove on part of Long island sound due to parts of it being frozen, so yes if you go back 100 years there is a definite change.

Warming and cooling is cyclical, and we are still emerging from the last mini ice age. 

Good link here. Quote below.

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age

"Today some scientists use it to distinguish only the period 1500–1850, when mountain glaciers expanded to their greatest extent, but the phrase is more commonly applied to the broader period 1300–1850. The Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warming Period (roughly 900–1300 CE) and preceded the present period of warming that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries."

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 weeklies seemingly turn the calendar back to winter 2001-02 and now show little prospect of cooling in a dramatic shift from yesterday’s run. Fortunately, beyond week 2, skill is low. Let’s see what the EPS weeklies show tomorrow.

Ha. That model flips more than pancakes.

I would welcome some energy savings (and agree to a 2002/2003 repeat next year)!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

State College is one of the most frustrating places to live for winter weather and their snow average has been decreasing fast over the past 15 years especially since so many storms now blow up on the coast. They every now and again get a bigger 8-12” type storm but generally it’s a few inch Nicole and dimes until they get to 35-45” per year. 

Yeah, in a low atmospheric condition low's have been gravitating to off the coast. We started that in the year 2000. 

[psv88]

57 degrees at 9 am on December 7. Helluva way to run a pattern change 

[bluewave]

Things get more interesting if we take a longer look at winter temperatures and seasonal snowfall at Islip since the early 1960s. There is decrease in snow cover days and an increase in total seasonal snowfall. Sharper warming trend with nearly double the number of winter 50° days. So quick warm ups after snowstorms have resulted in quick snowmelts after the storms.

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ha. That model flips more than pancakes.

I would welcome some energy savings (and agree to a 2002/2003 repeat next year)!

yeah terrible model-usually misses any cold until it's on us.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

57 degrees at 9 am on December 7. Helluva way to run a pattern change 

With a +500dm -NAO, and 558dm -AO. all hail the PNA

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

State College is one of the most frustrating places to live for winter weather and their snow average has been decreasing fast over the past 15 years especially since so many storms now blow up on the coast. They every now and again get a bigger 8-12” type storm but generally it’s a few inch Nicole and dimes until they get to 35-45” per year. 

Yep too far SE for Lake Effect and too far NW for noreasters.....

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

State College is one of the most frustrating places to live for winter weather and their snow average has been decreasing fast over the past 15 years especially since so many storms now blow up on the coast. They every now and again get a bigger 8-12” type storm but generally it’s a few inch Nicole and dimes until they get to 35-45” per year. 

Yeah, their snowfall has been cut nearly in half since the early 1990s. The big lows that used to track right over NJ and dump heavy snow in  Central PA have pretty much become non-existent these days. It could be related to the record warm pool favoring BM tracks instead of more like March 1993.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their snowfall has been cut nearly in half since the early 1990s. The big lows that used to track right over NJ and dump heavy snow in  Central PA have pretty much become non-existent these days. It could be related to the record warm pool favoring BM tracks instead of more like March 1993.

Even out that year 2000 on thing this year probably

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their snowfall has been cut nearly in half since the early 1990s. The big lows that used to track right over NJ and dump heavy snow in  Central PA have pretty much become non-existent these days. It could be related to the record warm pool favoring BM tracks instead of more like March 1993.

 

 

You have the rare 12/16/20 or 3/14/17 storms that are good there but by and large it’s 1-3 or 2-4” type events. What clippers we still have dry up many times before getting there, lake effect does happen but is very rare when it’s more than a coating, SWFE events usually end up sleet/ZR fests there, coastal storms are too far east etc. They need the bigger miller A events like you said to make it to normal, and now we have way more miller B type storms. 

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a good question. While Islip snowfall has doubled since 1981, the number of days with 1” of snowfall on the ground has only increased by a few days. So it’s one of the features of our warming climate.  All these 50° and 60° days around our snowstorms hasn’t allowed a big jump in snow cover days for going from near 20” to 40” since 1981. So we get quick snowmelts.

 

 

What you are looking at is a blip on the radar during a transition period before snowfall and prolonged winter becomes rare in places like the NYC metro.

The finale, the throwing of fuel on the fire, etc.

30-40 years from now when snowfall is 10 inches or less except for those one off years where we get a big storm. Like interior North Carolina.

 

Trend lines are all there. No dire predictions here. It is coming and it’s coming is accelerating. Most of us will see it.

you are really seeing it play out in real time in December. I watched all these meteorologists looking out at forecast models three weeks ahead, telling me how this December was gonna be very cold and snowy. 

we haven’t had a very cold and snowy December in years. and we likely won’t have one again. There will be one offs here and there, but the ocean waters and corresponding airmass have lobbed the month of Dec off winter in our area.

 

The March addition that many talk about is, again, an aberration until it disappears 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

The increase in number of 50+ degree days is very, very telling. It’s also much greater than I would’ve anticipated, that’s a huge jump. 

[rmo09001]

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

57 degrees at 9 am on December 7. Helluva way to run a pattern change 

Lol and we’re topping out at like 58 in San Diego today.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What you are looking at is a blip on the radar during a transition period before snowfall and prolonged winter becomes rare in places like the NYC metro.

The finale, the throwing of fuel on the fire, etc.

30-40 years from now when snowfall is 10 inches or less except for those one off years where we get a big storm. Like interior North Carolina.

 

Trend lines are all there. No dire predictions here. It is coming and it’s coming is accelerating. Most of us will see it.

you are really seeing it play out in real time in December. I watched all these meteorologists looking out at forecast models three weeks ahead, telling me how this December was gonna be very cold and snowy. 

we haven’t had a very cold and snowy December in years. and we likely won’t have one again. There will be one offs here and there, but the ocean waters and corresponding airmass have lobbed the month of Dec off winter in our area.

 

The March addition that many talk about is, again, an aberration until it disappears 

 

 

To be fair I can’t think of any mets who were calling for this Dec to be very cold and snowy. Unless you’re talking about JB and DT who I just ignore these days. 

[SnowGoose69]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their snowfall has been cut nearly in half since the early 1990s. The big lows that used to track right over NJ and dump heavy snow in  Central PA have pretty much become non-existent these days. It could be related to the record warm pool favoring BM tracks instead of more like March 1993.

 

 

you’d have to think if we go into a cold AMO soon that’ll change eventually  

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The increase in number of 50+ degree days is very, very telling. It’s also much greater than I would’ve anticipated, that’s a huge jump. 

Winter 50° days in NYC have become more common than highs that don’t get above freezing.

[Tatamy]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their snowfall has been cut nearly in half since the early 1990s. The big lows that used to track right over NJ and dump heavy snow in  Central PA have pretty much become non-existent these days. It could be related to the record warm pool favoring BM tracks instead of more like March 1993.

 

 

March 1993 was a triple phaser.  I am not so sure that the presence of the warm pool off of the coast would have changed the track on that one.  

[brooklynwx99]

it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland

certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

[ForestHillWx]

54 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The increase in number of 50+ degree days is very, very telling. It’s also much greater than I would’ve anticipated, that’s a huge jump. 

Your passion for snow is evident, but don’t you live at or near Tom’s River?

That’s not exactly a cold locale for NJ in the winter. You might need to move northwest. 

[jconsor]

Made a thread on the Sun-Mon potential storm.  Highly anomalous patterns - like this one with the near record -NAO and very strong blocking - can produce anomalous/extreme results in terms of sensible weather, if the shortwave timing/phasing is favorable.

Note that I show the GEM here because it illustrates the potential for this storm, though I agree with @brooklynwx99 that it likely represents the ceiling of that potential.
 

 

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

March 1993 was a triple phaser.  I am not so sure that the presence of the warm pool off of the coast would have changed the track on that one.  

While March 1993 was a unique case, it matches the general theme since the 1990s. The December to March storm tracks have shifted east over toward the warm pool. The main winter storm tracks since 2010 have been benchmark like Jan 16 or coastal hugger like Dec 2020. The NJ inland runner track hasn’t been as common. In fact, State College hasn’t had a 16”+ snowstorm since  since Feb 2003.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We had several stretches of warm with a -NAO or AO in the 80s and 90s.  It may just not have been as pronounced as recently.  I know 85-86 98-99 99-00 01-02 all had stretches of a couple of weeks where the NAO or AO were negative but the PAC was terrible and we were warm.  Most of the time though it was a GOA vortex that did us in back then vs a very strong -PNA  

I wonder if there is a way to track of the signals these indices have been provided have slowly warmed over time

I can see our Januarys are definitely warmer than they were in the 80s, when they averaged in the 20s the majority of the time.

 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Made a thread on the Sun-Mon potential storm.  Highly anomalous patterns - like this one with the near record -NAO and very strong blocking - can produce anomalous/extreme results in terms of sensible weather, if the shortwave timing/phasing is favorable.

Note that I show the GEM here because it illustrates the potential for this storm, though I agree with @brooklynwx99 that it likely represents the ceiling of that potential.
 

 

Will be interesting to watch the model progression of this over the next few days.  Certainly the last several cycles have trended more favorable.  Let's see if those trends continue.  Will be most interested to see if 12Z CMC can hold onto something similar and if the EURO looks similar or better.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

This isn't some new phenomenon. Most real winter weather in NYC is short lived especially in the last 30 years, we live in a moderate climate. Winters like '13-'14 and '14-'15 are extreme outliers.

The positive of the warmer climate/warmer waters is fuel for bigger storms so when there's been windows for potential snow, we've cashed in with bigger snowstorms. Lots of above normal snow and temperature winters in the last 20 years up until this Nina crap of the last few. This is our new climate, the new norm.

We really just need two nice wintry months to have a very good winter.

1977-78 was basically a two month snowy winter

2010-11 was a two month snowy winter

2014-15 was a two month snowy winter too

 

[EastonSN+]

Potentially breaching -4!!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Potentially breaching -4!!

 

what's the record overall and for the month of December and for winter?  Looks like it's approaching -5 on that graphic!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, binbisso said:

Yes  But the GFS has been a blowtorch  The last week  And other guidance has been waffling back-and-forth. Guidance didn't even have the system for this weekend 2 days ago.  This Just popped up  CMC was the 1st to see it.

Would love the CMC to score the win.  Based on the "downgrade" of the GFS might mean that the CMC moves ahead of the GFS for accuracy.