December 2022

[Dan76]

Like this ? 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Like this ? 

Yep 

More like the euro

[binbisso]

14 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Like this ? 

No like this

 

 

 

18z gfs

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, binbisso said:

No like this

 

 

 

18z gfs

 

Positive change down the road

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Positive change down the road

I'm hoping the SW trough continues to trend SW and pinch off from main jet. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has actually been scoring slightly better day 5-6 recently than the than the CMC. 
 

 

That's shocking but the gfs has been trending more south and robust with this little wave.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The track of the surface low isn’t that important. The only reason the CMC brings snow down to the coast is that it’s closed off at 500 mb. Both the Euro and GFS keep the 500 mb shortwave open. So the low doesn’t rapidly deepen and drawn down cold air.  There are no other models that have a 500mb bowling ball like the CMC.
 

 

No but the other models are slowly trending towards it. It wouldn't take much.

First little system to track before the pattern change next weekend .

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UKMET look too weak. The CMC looks too strong. Right now the GFS is in the middle for a change. So while the CMC 6-12 for NYC to Long Island looks unlikely, a stronger GFS at 500 mb could bring some flakes to the coast in later runs near the end of the storm.

06z GFS is showing this. A tick up from the 00z run.

 

[EasternLI]

9 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about. 

It's a fair point. There's a reason for that too though right now. The blocking has the TPV pinned by the sea of Okhotsk. So the real cold is pinned in siberia with it. However, the location where it's pinned is also detrimental to it with blocking over the top and near the Urals. The hope for me is that we can nuke it. Which is actually a realistic possibility this year. That would unravel that thing and spread the cold more willingly around the mid latitude belt. Plus, keep the blocking going in the arctic. The Pacific will be variable this season in my eyes. So I'm hopeful for a long lasting -AO this season to work with the times when there are Pacific improvements. That's where my head is at this season. It sure will be interesting to see how it goes. 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

06z GFS is showing this. A tick up from the 00z run.

 

Looks a bit like the December 2012 snowstorm.

Bluewave showed the H5 December 12 a while back.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It's a fair point. There's a reason for that too though right now. The blocking has the TPV pinned by the sea of Okhotsk. So the real cold is pinned in siberia with it. However, the location where it's pinned is also detrimental to it with blocking over the top and near the Urals. The hope for me is that we can nuke it. Which is actually a realistic possibility this year. That would unravel that thing and spread the cold more willingly around the mid latitude belt. Plus, keep the blocking going in the arctic. The Pacific will be variable this season in my eyes. So I'm hopeful for a long lasting -AO this season to work with the times when there are Pacific improvements. That's where my head is at this season. It sure will be interesting to see how it goes. 

This is really looking more and more like 12/13. December blocking and PAC have similarities. We all know the fun that ensued February and March that year! No two winters are exact but I like the potential. Something that Winter caused the December and subsequent Feb. March blocking.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

06z GFS is showing this. A tick up from the 00z run.

 

December 11-20 has been the snowiest part of the month in NYC since 2011. So it’s possible NYC could pick up its first snow of the season with this storm. Need a much stronger 500 mb low like the CMC to pick  up more than a T-2”.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 10	Missing Count
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	T	0
2019-12-10	1.6	0
2018-12-10	0.0	0
2017-12-10	4.6	0
2016-12-10	0.0	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	1.0	0
2013-12-10	2.1	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 11 to Dec 20	Missing Count
2021-12-20	0.0	0
2020-12-20	10.5	0
2019-12-20	0.9	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	2.4	0
2016-12-20	3.2	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	T	0
2013-12-20	6.5	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Dec 31	Missing Count
2021-12-31	0.2	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	T	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.7	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	T	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	0.4	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Bit of an EPO spike!

[EastonSN+]

End of the run where the RNA seems to return, however we all know models rush pattern changes (i.e. the current one). 

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Bit of an EPO spike!

Finally the gefs and gfs agrees with the other models about the pattern change next weekend.

[EasternLI]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is really looking more and more like 12/13. December blocking and PAC have similarities. We all know the fun that ensued February and March that year! No two winters are exact but I like the potential. Something that Winter caused the December and subsequent Feb. March blocking.

I think the potential is good this year. The million dollar question is does it pay off or not. We're certainly in a better position than where we could have been without any blocking at all. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and very mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 59°

The mild weather will continue into Thursday when cooler air begins to overspread the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.7°; 15-Year: 47.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.2°; 15-Year: 47.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 49.1°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   42degs.(39/46) or +4.

Despite being constantly wrong on  the lead 7, CFSv2 keeps showing this:     It will be right eventually---when July comes and it is too cold for the beach.     Can't wait.

GFS looks a little BN for the 16th-20th, but quickly warms again.

Reached 56 here yesterday.

Today:    57-60, wind s. to w. to nw., cloudy, drizzle, 48 tomorrow AM.

56*(99%RH) here at 6am---FOG <0.3mi.         55* at 7am.        58* at 8am.      58* at Noon.        Reached 59* at 2pm.          55* at 6pm.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The blocking will be peaking near -4 next few days so it’s possible that the closed low could correct stronger on the other models. But maybe not as strong as the CMC. Would like to see more guidance start showing more than a C-2” around NYC next few days.

Agree

6z eps trended slightly stronger  with the low for Monday 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Bit of an EPO spike!

I posted yesterday I feel based off what we’ve seen on longer term weeklies and EPS ensembles that we go full blown -PNA/-EPO/-AO around 12/25-12/30 into January.  I don’t expect the +PNA lasts long at all and that it may be 12/25-1/15 where we really have good chances at something 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I posted yesterday I feel based off what we’ve seen on longer term weeklies and EPS ensembles that we go full blown -PNA/-EPO/-AO around 12/25-12/30 into January.  I don’t expect the +PNA lasts long at all and that it may be 12/25-1/15 where we really have good chances at something 

Agree, I think parts of the area receive snow beforehand, but that it likely our big window UNLESS this does follow 12/13, where we can experience blocking return and have another fun mid February through March. Obviously that is way out.

Per Dons stats the numbers look good when the AO drops below -3. We could reach -4, the only downside for western areas of the sub forum is the block is displaced SE like 12/13.

 

[kat5hurricane]

On 12/6/2022 at 7:51 AM, MJO812 said:

It's scary how short our winters have become. 

This isn't some new phenomenon. Most real winter weather in NYC is short lived especially in the last 30 years, we live in a moderate climate. Winters like '13-'14 and '14-'15 are extreme outliers.

The positive of the warmer climate/warmer waters is fuel for bigger storms so when there's been windows for potential snow, we've cashed in with bigger snowstorms. Lots of above normal snow and temperature winters in the last 20 years up until this Nina crap of the last few. This is our new climate, the new norm.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the "warming" of the -nao/-ao signal over time shows the impact of climate change moreso than the importance of the Pacific (also the Pacific is changing because of climate change.)

We had several stretches of warm with a -NAO or AO in the 80s and 90s.  It may just not have been as pronounced as recently.  I know 85-86 98-99 99-00 01-02 all had stretches of a couple of weeks where the NAO or AO were negative but the PAC was terrible and we were warm.  Most of the time though it was a GOA vortex that did us in back then vs a very strong -PNA  

[Volcanic Winter]

21 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

This isn't some new phenomenon. Most real winter weather in NYC is short lived especially in the last 30 years, we live in a moderate climate. Winters like '13-'14 and '14-'15 are extreme outliers.

The positive of the warmer climate/warmer waters is fuel for bigger storms so when there's been windows for potential snow, we've cashed in with bigger snowstorms. Lots of above normal snow and temperature winters in the last 20 years up until this Nina crap of the last few. This is our new climate, the new norm.

The point is historically we have a colder climate here, so it’s frustrating for someone who loves snow and cold. Of course things are different today when we have accelerated warming relative to other areas of the country. NJ I believe is 2.9F over pre-industrial? That’s huge.

We’re not Canada but neither are we the southeast. I think it’s reasonable to expect to have “a winter,” but of course between subjectivity of what that means and warming that’s becoming less and less reasonable.

Not to get tangential; in the Pleistocene the Laurentide extended to 40N, NYC. NA was able to extend its glaciers very far south. When I drive to work and see Manhattan I often try to visualize a fat glacier there instead, it’s wild. Not to ramble, I just mean we shouldn’t have to hug a Leprechaun every time it snows here. 

I do wonder how much longer the warming SST’s will pump up our snow totals instead of hurting them by warming the air mass too much. Is that a near future threat you think?

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The point is historically we have a colder climate here, so it’s frustrating for someone who loves snow and cold. Of course things are different today when we have accelerated warming relative to other areas of the country. NJ I believe is 2.9F over pre-industrial? That’s huge.

We’re not Canada but neither are we the southeast. I think it’s reasonable to expect to have “a winter,” but of course between subjectivity of what that means and warming that’s becoming less and less reasonable.

There has been some good discussion in the Mid Atl forum wrt warming and how marginal events just dont pan out like they did a decade or so ago. I can attest to that where im at.....moved here in 2010 as this was 20 miles nw of philly and was almost always frozen in marginal events. We just dont cash in during marginal events here anymore....people can draw their own conclusions but the marginal line is now 15 miles to my nw. Time to relocate again?

[lee59]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There has been some good discussion in the Mid Atl forum wrt warming and how marginal events just dont pan out like they did a decade or so ago. I can attest to that where im at.....moved here in 2010 as this was 20 miles nw of philly and was almost always frozen in marginal events. We just dont cash in during marginal events here anymore....people can draw their own conclusions but the marginal line is now 15 miles to my nw. Time to relocate again?

Just seems like a very short time frame to make much of a conclusion.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There has been some good discussion in the Mid Atl forum wrt warming and how marginal events just dont pan out like they did a decade or so ago. I can attest to that where im at.....moved here in 2010 as this was 20 miles nw of philly and was almost always frozen in marginal events. We just dont cash in during marginal events here anymore....people can draw their own conclusions but the marginal line is now 15 miles to my nw. Time to relocate again?

Yeah State College ain't budging

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There has been some good discussion in the Mid Atl forum wrt warming and how marginal events just dont pan out like they did a decade or so ago. I can attest to that where im at.....moved here in 2010 as this was 20 miles nw of philly and was almost always frozen in marginal events. We just dont cash in during marginal events here anymore....people can draw their own conclusions but the marginal line is now 15 miles to my nw. Time to relocate again?

I would say the same here on the coast of CT-recent marginal events are alot of white rain or car toppers...Would that still be true 30 years ago?

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The point is historically we have a colder climate here, so it’s frustrating for someone who loves snow and cold. Of course things are different today when we have accelerated warming relative to other areas of the country. NJ I believe is 2.9F over pre-industrial? That’s huge.

We’re not Canada but neither are we the southeast. I think it’s reasonable to expect to have “a winter,” but of course between subjectivity of what that means and warming that’s becoming less and less reasonable.

Not to get tangential; in the Pleistocene the Laurentide extended to 40N, NYC. NA was able to extend its glaciers very far south. When I drive to work and see Manhattan I often try to visualize a fat glacier there instead, it’s wild. Not to ramble, I just mean we shouldn’t have to hug a Leprechaun every time it snows here. 

I do wonder how much longer the warming SST’s will pump up our snow totals instead of hurting them by warming the air mass too much. Is that a near future threat you think?

That’s a good question. While Islip snowfall has doubled since 1981, the number of days with 1” of snowfall on the ground has only increased by a few days. So it’s one of the features of our warming climate.  All these 50° and 60° days around our snowstorms hasn’t allowed a big jump in snow cover days for going from near 20” to 40” since 1981. So we get quick snowmelts.

 

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah State College ain't budging

State College is one of the most frustrating places to live for winter weather and their snow average has been decreasing fast over the past 15 years especially since so many storms now blow up on the coast. They every now and again get a bigger 8-12” type storm but generally it’s a few inch Nicole and dimes until they get to 35-45” per year.