jm1220 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: AN Nov and Dec with BN Dec snow during La Nina usually leads to a garbage winter, correct? I’d much rather go into the rest of the winter in a Nina with a decent Dec snowstorm under our belt. Wouldn’t quite say “break out the shorts and flip flops” if we don’t but the odds go way down if it doesn’t happen. Nina’s generally become more hostile the further into winter we go. But supposedly this Nina is on its last legs finally and we have various competing influences so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Snowstorms? I got bit by a mosquito just now. Need to dig out the bug spray. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 hours ago, EasternLI said: Keep it coming.... It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 A chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about. What it shows is an overreliance on indices and the danger of obsessing over "patterns" when local weather is determined by a specific and unique combination of features at any given moment in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 29 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about. The weather in our part of the globe moves from west to east, so ultimately the Pacific drives the outcomes. There are ways the Atlantic can mess things up with a big +NAO or force the pattern to slow down and amplify to give us our bigger snow events, but if we’re drowning in Pacific puke in the never ending assembly line, it doesn’t turn out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: AN Nov and Dec with BN Dec snow during La Nina usually leads to a garbage winter, correct? Decembers in general that wiff in the snow dept are usually bad winters....there are exceptions of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Gfs has some snow for northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has some snow for northern areas More than a few well north. CMC looking robust also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Cmc looking good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Nice hit for NYC north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looking good That’s pretty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, rgwp96 said: That’s pretty 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 CMC, LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: CMC, LOL Gfs is trying 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Models look better starting next weekend Nice ridge out west on the gfs and cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice hit for NYC north The GGEM has been quite consistent with a potential event for the 12th. Looks like the GFS has now joined the party. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I would take this in a heart beat. No holds barred. Beautiful first snow for the city. Helps get us into the Holiday mood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Oh man. The weenies are flying tn. 5 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Oh man. The weenies are flying tn. Cocked, locked, and ready for duty! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Last night's runs and ensembles were pretty decent and a continued improvement over what we've seen. Some even gave us some snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Huge changes on the 6z gfs. It Now has the low pressure on the 11th and 12th similar to the cmc. It blows that system up in the North Atlantic near the 5050 region and will probably affect the low pressure on the 14th and 15th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Models have been really struggling with the blocking pattern. 11th/12 now a legit chance at our first snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about. the "warming" of the -nao/-ao signal over time shows the impact of climate change moreso than the importance of the Pacific (also the Pacific is changing because of climate change.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: The weather in our part of the globe moves from west to east, so ultimately the Pacific drives the outcomes. There are ways the Atlantic can mess things up with a big +NAO or force the pattern to slow down and amplify to give us our bigger snow events, but if we’re drowning in Pacific puke in the never ending assembly line, it doesn’t turn out well. well when we actually have important storms the weather moves from south to north or southwest to northeast. when storms are weak it moves from west to east-- that's a boring zonal pattern. North America is a puny continent, consider Asia, where no one ever talks about the influence of the Atlantic on their pattern, even though that is the Ocean to their west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Last night's runs and ensembles were pretty decent and a continued improvement over what we've seen. Some even gave us some snow Same as 6z Snow to our north and west and the cutter next week has been getting weaker . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, binbisso said: Models have been really struggling with the blocking pattern. 11th/12 now a legit chance at our first snowfall. But wasn't the 13th always the target date? Somewhere around that date was always supposed to be the first realistic possibility at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Oh man. The weenies are flying tn. where do you find this stuff lol and what are they carrying? are those midget St Bernards going to rescue people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But wasn't the 13th always the target date? Somewhere around that date was always supposed to be the first realistic possibility at snow. Yes But the GFS has been a blowtorch The last week And other guidance has been waffling back-and-forth. Guidance didn't even have the system for this weekend 2 days ago. This Just popped up CMC was the 1st to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yes But the GFS has been a blowtorch The last week And other guidance has been waffling back-and-forth. Guidance didn't even have the system for this weekend 2 days ago. This Just popped up CMC was the 1st to see it. The system for the 12 is helping the heights to dampen for the midweek storm. It is looking more and more like a transfer situation for New England . After this the models have a colder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now