SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Op GFS was better with the Pac for once overall after D10 but at the same time it had a pattern between the Rockies and Hawaii indicative of a QBO of -25 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If the euro agrees again than the gfs should be thrown int he shredder. I can't even think how many times there have been different solutions. Every 6 hours! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac. Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it. - Too bad we don't have access to the old GFS. Like rolling back the OS on your computer or firmware to the earlier version that actually works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: Too bad we don't have access to the old GFS. Like rolling back the OS on your computer or firmware to the earlier version that actually works. Every time the models get improved they get worse...I'm with you it's time for a "palace coup" to return the old GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If the euro agrees again than the gfs should be thrown int he shredder. I can't even think how many times there have been different solutions. The GFS is trash in mid term time frame and an absolute dumpster fire beyond that. It had rain up to Canada with next weekend system as late as 00z run last night and that was obviously not going to happen. I would take both the CMC and Euro over that crap model any day of the week in nearly any scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6z vs 12z Dec 18 straight up comedy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: 6z vs 12z Dec 18 straight up comedy This is the perfect example of why I keep saying that running the op out beyond 240 hours is a complete waste of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: This is the perfect example of why I keep saying that running the op out beyond 240 hours is a complete waste of time. Just absolutely 100% useless. Serves no purpose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, MANDA said: Just absolutely 100% useless. Serves no purpose. If we don't run it, how will we know when it gets better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Window 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Now THIS is a change in the GEFS. The Atlantic goes to crap in the LR but the PAC improves. GEPS remains unchanged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I mean the run over run change is massive. NAO block sinks SE, but the EPO completely flips from positive to negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Check over Alaska and Greenland. That's a massive ror change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Every time the models get improved they get worse...I'm with you it's time for a "palace coup" to return the old GFS.. Yeah, the GFS skill dropped with the upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 AO approaching -4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: If we don't run it, how will we know when it gets better? When what gets better? Verification scores 10 days out are low. To have an op model, and a crap model at that, go out 16 days is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Yeah, it just needs to happen though. I told my wife for this Xmas to either plan for 30+ inches of snow or we're having a Hawaiian Xmas luau. I think our bases are covered. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah, it just needs to happen though. I told my wife for this Xmas to either plan for 30+ inches of snow or we're having a Hawaiian Xmas luau. I think our bases are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system I do think something will come out of this but it's a long waiting game. After mid month most likely. Climo gets a lot better too by then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system Sometimes we have to be patient. Blocks usually don't produce right away . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system When I see this loop. I see a PV in severe distress. The absolute last thing that it ever wants to do is have itself shoved out to the Aleutians like that. If we want that thing to come unraveled. That would help the cause. A lot. Just look at that poor thing, that's a miserable life for the vortex. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: When I see this loop. I see a PV in severe distress. The absolute last thing that it ever wants to do is have itself shoved out to the Aleutians like that. If we want that thing to come unraveled. That would help the cause. A lot. Just look at that poor thing, that's a miserable life for the vortex. Not shocking since the block is enormous . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system The PAC improvement is what I like most here. But I f that ends up being a phantom depiction, then it’s gonna be a struggle to get any fun winter wx down to the coast. Except for a few diamonds in the rough (in my lifetime, 95–96 and 10–11), these Niña winters tend to be mostly suckage (and IIRC, the good ones had decent cold in late Nov/early Dec). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not shocking since the block is enormous . Yes. And I'm rooting for the SSW hard this year. Well, we've had some precursors too actually so it is very interesting. But why? Because it would be accompanied by blocking, already set up at 500mb. Whenever you get to do that, you don't need to wait for effects. Like we're used to seeing. The effect from this would be immediate. It's a very rare opportunity, and we're still very much in the hunt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: Yes. And I'm rooting for the SSW hard this year. Well, we've had some precursors too actually so it is very interesting. But why? Because it would be accompanied by blocking, already set up at 500mb. Whenever you get to do that, you don't need to wait for effects. Like we're used to seeing. The effect from this would be immediate. It's a very rare opportunity, and we're still very much in the hunt. I think people are getting impatient because they want quick results of the blocking but most of the time it takes time. Hey who doesn't want snow near the holidays 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Why is the GFS even run? What’s the point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, psv88 said: Why is the GFS even run? What’s the point? 18z is warm and wet again through day 10... who cares what it shows beyond then, fantasy period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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