December 2022

[mikem81]

I prefer to see SST's below 50 in the NYC area before even following winter events unless the setup in perfect. Right now, SST around 52 25 miles south of JFK. The pattern being perfect is much better if its after 12/20

[Volcanic Winter]

And of course Dec is not climatologically ideal for most of our area until the very end, with some exceptions; but I think the hope this year was for an ‘anomalously’ cooler and snowier Dec based on the modeling toward the end of Nov, not that it’s something to ever expect. Believe me I know Dec usually sucks for us, I’m very adjusted to Hawaiian themed Xmas parties. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC got only 0.2” in December 2012 and ISP 0.5”. There was one snow event on the 26th. There were a few inches just west of I-95 and more up in Orange County.

 

In coastal CT we had 4 inches from that storm. Not sure how far off that was from giving NYC the same but can't imagine it was that far off. So thinking if this pattern is slightly better NYC sees 4 in the same event.

What's bothering me is I feel that the board is split to extremes.

Either blocking is great so we are gonna get slammed or we have an RNA so all hope is lost and we are looking at 01/02.

I think the safe thought process for is something in between until the ensembles lock into something.

You are far better educated than me in this field so your opinion holds far more weight, however I do not think the PAC is nearly as bad as what 2012 was (I may be off here of course) - would pay to see what the EPS and GEFS showed in early December.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The punting by the ensembles are laughable at this point. Some don’t want to accept it 

I don't see a full punt but more of a correction in the medium term. This current pattern will work late month where Forky/Brooklynwx99/NE thread METS/MA forum are saying.

Hey - if Forky/Brooklynwx99 reply here and say it looks hopeless I will follow their opinion 100%, but until that happens I see nothing that goes against the mid to late month forecast from them.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully it's not one of those "it's always 10 days away patterns"   

We scored 4 inches in 2012 where the PAC was worse. 

What's wrong with the CURRENT pattern? This pattern we are in right now will work in late December and January. Let the models punt all day will will cash in.

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

We scored 4 inches in 2012 where the PAC was worse. 

What's wrong with the CURRENT pattern? This pattern we are in right now will work in late December and January. Let the models punt all day will will cash in.

 

I'm on board for late Dec/Early Jan-works for me-better climo.   Models are always too quick to bring in a pattern change and too quick to break it down-so add 10-15 days onto the change on either end and you'll be good.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

In coastal CT we had 4 inches from that storm. Not sure how far off that was from giving NYC the same but can't imagine it was that far off. So thinking if this pattern is slightly better NYC sees 4 in the same event.

What's bothering me is I feel that the board is split to extremes.

Either blocking is great so we are gonna get slammed or we have an RNA so all hope is lost and we are looking at 01/02.

I think the safe thought process for is something in between until the ensembles lock into something.

You are far better educated than me in this field so your opinion holds far more weight, however I do not think the PAC is nearly as bad as what 2012 was (I may be off here of course) - would pay to see what the EPS and GEFS showed in early December.

 

 

 

We appreciate all the different voices and levels of experience here. That’s what makes this such a unique forum. The one truth about all monthly analogs is that they aren’t revealed to us until the  month is nearly over. When analogs are discussed, we are just presenting a range of possibilities that have happened in the recent past. Plus in our warmer climate, analogs older than 10 years or so seldom work out. 

[ag3]

-NAO doesnt mean cold and snow.

Need the pac. Especially in December.

 

 

[SRRTA22]

Sheesh cpk only got down to 36? I got down to 23 in JC 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I'm on board for late Dec/Early Jan-works for me-better climo.   Models are always too quick to bring in a pattern change and too quick to break it down-so add 10-15 days onto the change on either end and you'll be good.

CORRECT. It's actually great that this is getting delayed. Get this pattern in late December and January.

Also, we were only 8 inches below seasonal average last year and that was just 3 weeks. This December looks MUCH better that RNA was a beast.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

-NAO doesnt mean cold and snow.

Need the pac. Especially in December.

 

 

Correct in that before mid month we need colder air. If this pattern holds to late month we MAY score.

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We appreciate all the different voices and levels of experience here. That’s what makes this such a unique forum. The one truth about all monthly analogs is that they aren’t revealed to us until the  month is nearly over. When analogs are discussed, we are just presenting a range of possibilities that have happened in the recent past. Plus in our warmer climate, analogs older than 10 years or so seldom work out. 

Yeah, I also appreciate that this forum covers a vast region and what coastal NJ needs is far different than the 84 inland corridor.

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, I also appreciate that this forum covers a vast region and what coastal NJ needs is far different than the 84 inland corridor.

True of course, but we can all do reasonably well together with the right storm in the right air. 
 

If 1/29/22 built back a bit further inland, it would’ve been epic for everyone not just NE. Still got 16 inches here and it was the best storm for me in a while, 22F early AM with perfect powder. Beautiful. 

[Tatamy]

45 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I prefer to see SST's below 50 in the NYC area before even following winter events unless the setup in perfect. Right now, SST around 52 25 miles south of JFK. The pattern being perfect is much better if its after 12/20

In so far as LI goes you would need SST’s below 45 in order for the atmosphere (with cold or cooling temperatures aloft) to overcome  onshore flow during a winter event.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nah, I get it. This sucks. The surge of AGW the past 20 years has turned our winters into a literal slot machine that either only eats your money or hits the jackpot with little middle ground, with the rare exception of a few winters with multiple jackpots. It feels very all or nothing anymore, and that was true for me before I signed up here. 
 

The thing that’s most frustrating, and of course this could just be bias, it always seems like when the models show favorability it doesn’t materalize, but when they show an unfavorable set up - lock it in and cash the check. It’s very frustrating. 

There were 29 seasons with over 35” and under 15.0” at Islip in roughly the last 30 years. Only 8 seasons with such extreme highs or lows during the previous roughly 30 interval. So it’s has been an all or nothing snowfall pattern at ISP since the early 1990s.

Over 35” and under 15” years bolded
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.8	7.3	T	0.0	10.7
2006-2007	0.0	T	0.0	1.0	4.2	3.8	T	9.0
2005-2006	0.0	0.5	7.6	4.7	19.9	3.2	0.1	36.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	7.0	21.5	17.0	13.3	0.0	58.8
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2002-2003	0.0	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.7	T	T	0.0	3.7
2000-2001	T	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
1999-2000	0.0	T	0.4	5.8	2.6	0.2	T	9.0
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.5	2.8	9.1	T	19.4
1997-1998	0.0	T	1.0	T	T	1.6	T	2.6
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.2	3.3	2.2	3.7	2.0	12.4
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	T	5.1	T	0.0	5.1
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.3	8.8	20.0	5.0	0.0	37.1
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.3	10.9	13.3	0.0	28.6
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.3	1.5	7.6	T	13.4
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	4.0	3.6	4.3	1.9	0.0	13.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1989-1990	0.0	7.6	0.2	2.0	2.0	4.2	3.0	19.0
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	4.2	10.7	0.1	3.4	0.0	19.5
1986-1987	0.0	T	3.4	8.8	8.6	1.7	0.0	22.5
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.1	2.6	10.4	0.1	T	15.2
1984-1985	0.0	T	4.7	13.5	8.7	T	T	26.9
1983-1984	0.0	T	2.6	11.9	T	13.0	0.0	27.5
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	1.5	26.1	T	1.1	31.9
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	1.0	18.1	0.3	T	16.0	35.4
1980-1981	0.0	T	0.5	13.2	T	7.1	0.0	20.8
1979-1980	T	0.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	9.0
1978-1979	0.0	4.0	T	6.9	17.2	T	T	28.1
1977-1978	0.0	0.8	0.2	27.7	28.9	10.4	T	68.0
1976-1977	0.0	T	6.2	11.2	6.6	4.0	0.0	28.0
1975-1976	0.0	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1974-1975	0.0	0.5	T	1.8	11.0	1.2	T	14.5
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	T	9.0	17.0	8.0	T	34.0
1972-1973	T	0.0	T	1.5	3.0	T	T	4.5
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.1	12.5	1.0	T	15.6
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.3	2.0	1.0	2.5	18.9
1969-1970	0.0	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1968-1969	0.0	T	3.0	T	19.5	11.0	0.0	33.5
1967-1968	0.0	2.5	5.0	9.1	3.0	3.0	0.0	22.6
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	8.6	1.0	19.5	21.7	T	50.8
1965-1966	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	3.6	0.0	0.0	15.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	2.0	24.6	7.4	4.5	1.0	39.5
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7

[brooklynwx99]

I have been saying (as well as some others) that we would have to wait until after the 15th through the end of the month since last week and I don't see any reason to stray from that now. the pattern hadn't established itself before then, and models often rush pattern changes by a few days, so I don't get what all the panic is about both here and on social media. it's just not wanting to wait

this was the pattern for two weeks leading up to BDB, which amounted to some cutters and fish storms... people were freaking out then too. look at the Pacific! look familiar? we just have to be patient

 

[LoboLeader1]

Bottomed out 24 here last night, reached a high yesterday of 43.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Anything wrong with this ?

Other than the person who posted it is UlsterCoSnowz?

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nah, I get it. This sucks. The surge of AGW the past 20 years has turned our winters into a literal slot machine that either only eats your money or hits the jackpot with little middle ground, with the rare exception of a few winters with multiple jackpots. It feels very all or nothing anymore, and that was true for me before I signed up here. 
 

The thing that’s most frustrating, and of course this could just be bias, it always seems like when the models show favorability it doesn’t materalize, but when they show an unfavorable set up - lock it in and cash the check. It’s very frustrating. 

The essentially permanent Nina or Nina-like pattern over the past 4 winters doesn’t help. I’m sure AGW plays a role but one of the most definite slam dunks has been the cold NW/ Rockies and mild East which is what’s favored in La Niña. We can make it work in the 2-3 week winter patterns we get but the longer term cold Winter 14-15 like patterns won’t happen until this perma-Nina goes away. We may need a big El Niño to finally force a change. 

[brooklynwx99]

also, here are some snapshots from the second half of December 2010:

there was a raging cutter on 12/13:

 

cold and dry with an absolute garbage Pacific on 12/16:

 

a storm going OTS, leaving us cold and dry with a deep trough off the WC on 12/21:

 

and then, as we all know, a historic blizzard 5 days later on 12/26:

 

I'm sure the melts were of epic proportions back then and everyone looked a bit silly afterwards for not staying the course. not gonna lie, I probably would've started to get a bit frustrated myself

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, here are some snapshots from the second half of December 2010:

there was a raging cutter on 12/13:

 

cold and dry with an absolute garbage Pacific on 12/16:

 

a storm going OTS, leaving us cold and dry with a deep trough off the WC on 12/21:

 

and then, as we all know, a historic blizzard 5 days later on 12/26:

 

I'm sure the melts were of epic proportions back then and everyone looked a bit silly afterwards for not staying the course. not gonna lie, I probably would've started to get a bit frustrated myself

Yeah it was rough-great pattern but nothing until BDB.   There was an OTS storm 12/17 as well.  Was brutally cold too-month was -4.7 

[Eduardo]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The essentially permanent Nina or Nina-like pattern over the past 4 winters doesn’t help. I’m sure AGW plays a role but one of the most definite slam dunks has been the cold NW/ Rockies and mild East which is what’s favored in La Niña. We can make it work in the 2-3 week winter patterns we get but the longer term cold Winter 14-15 like patterns won’t happen until this perma-Nina goes away. We may need a big El Niño to finally force a change. 

How would another robust El Niño dislodge the semi-perma-Niña trash though if what we have right now followed the 2015–2016 super-Niño though?

[Brian5671]

Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac.

Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it.

-

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac.

Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it.

-

Toss the GFS far, 18z yesterday showed two snowstorms. 

Go with a CMC EURO blend until the GFS calms down.

[Franklin0529]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac.

Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it.

-

The gfs has been terrible.  The cmc is a better model then the gfs. Especially with a pattern like this setting up. Gfs will come around Wednesday 

[qg_omega]

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah it was rough-great pattern but nothing until BDB.   There was an OTS storm 12/17 as well.  Was brutally cold too-month was -4.7 

yes, nothing like that this month with the PV in BC.

[qg_omega]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac.

Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it.

-

Brutal cold is north of Montana and locked up

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The gfs has been terrible.  The cmc is a better model then the gfs. Especially with a pattern like this setting up. Gfs will come around Wednesday 

If the euro agrees again than the gfs should be thrown int he shredder. I can't even think how many times there have been different solutions. 

[SnowGoose69]

One thing is for sure, the GFS Fri/Sat on that run moved towards the Euro or CMC idea which we obviously knew was happening given the block

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing is for sure, the GFS Fri/Sat on that run moved towards the Euro or CMC idea which we obviously knew was happening given the block

Yep