December 2022

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The punting by the ensembles are laughable at this point. Some don’t want to accept it 

Yeah it sucks right now. My initial idea of waiting til January is likely to pan out. 

That's been the theme. Pacific is garbage 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it sucks right now. My initial idea of waiting til January is likely to pan out. 

That's been the theme. Pacific is garbage 

PAC improved last winter in January which gave us two snow events. Probably another 2-3 week winter coming this year with eastern areas doing the best. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully it's not one of those "it's always 10 days away patterns"   

We won’t know for sure unless one of these day 15 forecasts can make it to day 8-10. Notice how the EPS and GEFS keep underestimating the -PNA days 11-15. Now that the period is day 8-10 and the -AO ridge is building down into New England with a deeper -PNA trough over the Western US and Canada. Anytime the ensembles have a ridge axis day 15 in the Aleutians we can count on the -PNA verifying lower.

New 204 hr

Old 360 hr

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Allsnow said:

PAC improved last winter in January which gave us two snow events. Probably another 2-3 week winter coming this year with eastern areas doing the best. 

Until we get out of this Nina state that's likely the theme. I do think Atlantic blocking will be a bit better this year though.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it sucks right now. My initial idea of waiting til January is likely to pan out. 

That's been the theme. Pacific is garbage 

We aren't going to wait until January for winter weather.  

Ignore the gfs when the model keeps drastically changing 

I have no clue how people can say the pattern isn't changing when the blocking is already getting established and will become favorable after this weekend despite the pac.

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2nd window.

If some part of the blocking can still be around when we can get the Pacific to cooperate, that’s our shot. It’ll be tough to get anything wintry as long as the continent is flooded with Pacific garbage. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We won’t know for sure unless one of these day 15 forecasts can make it to day 8-10. Notice how the EPS and GEFS keep underestimating the -PNA days 11-15. Now that the period is day 8-10 and the -AO ridge is building down into New England with a deeper -PNA trough over the Western US and Canada. Anytime the ensembles have a ridge axis day 15 in the Aleutians we can count on the -PNA verifying lower.

New 204 hr

Old 360 hr

 

 

The dreamy look of the pv stuck under the block is completely gone Now. We just need to focus on the pac to get a better pattern going 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

PAC improved last winter in January which gave us two snow events. Probably another 2-3 week winter coming this year with eastern areas doing the best. 

December 10 - December 25 should offer a storm chances or two for our area.  

A positive PNA might hurt us more than help us here with the NAO and AO deeply negative.

I don't know how people can be upset about the pattern .

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The dreamy look of the pv stuck under the block is completely gone Now. We just need to focus on the pac to get a better pattern going 

What's gone ? Nothing is gone with the favorable pattern ?

You want cold and dry with the PV paying us a visit ? We need some ridging in the east with the big negative  NAO.

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If some part of the blocking can still be around when we can get the Pacific to cooperate, that’s our shot. It’ll be tough to get anything wintry as long as the continent is flooded with Pacific garbage. 

Or if this look maintains throughout the winter we'll get our opportunities in the back half like in 2013 and 1969 when a bad pacific won't matter as much. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

December 10 - December 25 should offer a storm chances or two for our area.  

A positive PNA might hurt us more than help us here with the NAO and AO deeply negative.

I don't know how people can be upset about the pattern .

@MJO812 the -pna is hurting us because we can’t get any cold air in the east. I doesn’t matter what the storm track is if we are 5-10 degrees above normal 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What's gone ? Nothing is gone with the favorable pattern ?

You want cold and dry with the PV paying us a visit ? We need some ridging in the east with the big negative  NAO.

 

We need a airmass that supports snow….this is turning into last December quickly imo 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What's gone ? Nothing is gone with the favorable pattern ?

You want cold and dry with the PV paying us a visit ? We need some ridging in the east with the big negative  NAO.

 

Always take the cold, always

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Always take the cold, always

This is especially true if you live on the coast. Areas further north and inland in New England can get away with a suboptimal airmass but not us. 

If you're still struggling to hit freezing in the morning now then yeah you need the cold.

I do think things will look better after mid month. Less of a -PNA will help

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We aren't going to wait until January for winter weather.  

Ignore the gfs when the model keeps drastically changing 

I have no clue how people can say the pattern isn't changing when the blocking is already getting established and will become favorable after this weekend despite the pac.

No one is using the GFS.  If you look at the EPS it pushes the pattern out in time.   And the PAC does matter especially in mid December.   Right now the NAO will just trap a marginal airmass which for the coast is 40 and rain.    Go back and read the last 2 pages here please...

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No one is using the GFS.  If you look at the EPS it pushes the pattern out in time.   And the PAC does matter especially in mid December.   Right now the NAO will just trap a marginal airmass which for the coast is 40 and rain.    Go back and read the last 2 pages here please...

I am but I see no reason to be worried but you can with others if you want .

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I am but I see no reason to be worried but you can with others if you want .

 Love your optimism but you do the same thing every year....you've been at this hobby long enough to know it's not going as planned...

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

 Love your optimism but you do the same thing every year....you've been at this hobby long enough to know it's not going as planned...

Don't play stupid

You do the same also with everything. Down play every single thing.

I learned from the beat about weather and I'm going to stick with my guns that starting next week we will see favorable weather till the end of this month .

[MJO812]

I think we just have to let it play out instead of worrying about it.

Models usually struggle during pattern changes and as we can see , it's happening here.

Yes the pattern did get slightly delayed from early December to mid December but nothing is getting pushed back more.

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 Love your optimism but you do the same thing every year....you've been at this hobby long enough to know it's not going as planned...

When it’s December 20th and 50 degrees in Brooklyn ny he will Come in this forum posting how all the mets were wrong….

[Brian5671]

Just now, Allsnow said:

When it’s December 20th and 50 degrees in Brooklyn ny he will Come in this forum posting how all the mets were wrong….

[binbisso]

I'd be very surprised if by December 15th those living North and West of I287 and near I 84 don't receive  accumulating snow.  In those areas the average high temperature is in the mid and upper thirties and lows in the mid twenties So any system tracking underneath us with this NAO block even with a crap airmass would produce for them which by the way is half of this sub forum.  We may have to wait a little longer in the New York City metro Long Island in central New Jersey

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

When it’s December 20th and 50 degrees in Brooklyn ny he will Come in this forum posting how all the mets were wrong….

Keep denying the pattern change . Nothing even suggests those temps in mid to late December .

I'm still amazed how you can't see the pattern moving forward to be the best we had in years.

[MJO812]

Anything wrong with this ?

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Anything wrong with this ?

Yes, the deep blues off the west coast 

[Volcanic Winter]

Nah, I get it. This sucks. The surge of AGW the past 20 years has turned our winters into a literal slot machine that either only eats your money or hits the jackpot with little middle ground, with the rare exception of a few winters with multiple jackpots. It feels very all or nothing anymore, and that was true for me before I signed up here. 
 

The thing that’s most frustrating, and of course this could just be bias, it always seems like when the models show favorability it doesn’t materalize, but when they show an unfavorable set up - lock it in and cash the check. It’s very frustrating. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I'd be very surprised if by December 15th those living North and West of I287 and near I 84 don't receive  accumulating snow.  In those areas the average high temperature is in the mid and upper thirties and lows in the mid twenties So any system tracking underneath us with this NAO block even with a crap airmass would produce for them which by the way is half of this sub forum.  We may have to wait a little longer in the New York City metro Long Island in central New Jersey

That’s why cold is so important this time of year. A marginal or warm airmass for the coast can be fine over the interior parts of the forum. The December average snowfall since the super El Niño in those areas is about double that of NYC. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for PORT JERVIS, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	7.4	7.4
2021	2.5	2.5
2020	12.8	12.8
2019	9.0	9.0
2018	1.0	1.0
2017	13.0	13.0
2016	13.5	13.5
2015	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	3.4	3.4
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T

[EastonSN+]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If some part of the blocking can still be around when we can get the Pacific to cooperate, that’s our shot. It’ll be tough to get anything wintry as long as the continent is flooded with Pacific garbage. 

Keep in mind we scored in 2012 with a PAC worse than what is forecasted.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The pac is way better than what it was this time last December with a negative NAO. We can work with it.

The PAC is better than it was in 2012 and we got snow.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Just checked the 6z gefs. Better than the 0z gefs . 

Correct. We may not get an epic stretch, but I do not see a shut out pattern in any of the ensembles OR THE OPS.