MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yup. On it's own lol. Still Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The run to run changes are laughably bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The run to run changes are laughably bad Gfs just had an upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Does don or anyone know what NYC snowfall is like, coming out of a 4SD -NAO? Better yet, what happens, when that rise is associated with a positive PNA/or GOA low as I think we are going to reverse thisv. could make a window a few days before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs just had an upgrade Like I said. Give it till Tuesday/wed it might have a clue. Flakes flying on the weekend is a win in my book. Bring it on 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will partly sunny with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 49° Warmer air will return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 47.8° Newark: 30-Year: 47.9°; 15-Year: 48.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 26F Lots of Frost this morning in Westchester…warm up coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Sticking my neck out: GEPS has snow accumulations (snow depth change) as seen on Pivotal. Not posting all the comparative graphics, but unless the stats have changed...CMC #2 in the world... and imo, if the CMC-GEPS doesn't have it, it won't occur (snow). I think there is a good chance the CMC will verify Fri-Sat with snow PA/nw NJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 20 here. Coldest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Heat island in full affect this morning. A frosty 23 here and only 36 in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Does don or anyone know what NYC snowfall is like, coming out of a 4SD -NAO? The answer for NYC snowfall is that a-3 to -4 SD AO in December depends on the Pacific. We had a 10”+ snowstorm in 2020 with the lowest monthly AO reaching -3.197. But that month featured a strong +PNA. NYC got under 1” in December 2012 with a -3.902 lowest AO reading. The Pacific stayed too hostile with a -PNA. Both years featured a SSW event in January and great February snowstorms. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 10.5 “ snow in NYC 0.3 snow in NYC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind. Yep got down to 21 here-everything coated in frost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(45/50) or +8. Maybe two BN days contained within: Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 45-48, wind w. to s. to e., variable clouds, 45 tomorrow AM 39*(68%RH)here at 6am. 41* at 9am. 44* at Noon. 47* at 3pm. Basically still 47* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind. The BNL tower thermometer shows how shallow these radiational cooling inversions are. Near 40° at 50m and around 20° at 2m. So go up about 16 stories above the pine barrens and the temperature is similar to the heat island in NYC. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 hours ago, Franklin0529 said: Like I said. Give it till Tuesday/wed it might have a clue. Flakes flying on the weekend is a win in my book. Bring it on Upgrade probably ruined it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Looks like our first window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2nd window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Gfs is alone while the eps and geps continue to show a good pattern ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs is alone while the eps and geps continue to show a good pattern ahead. Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now.... Yeah that will only work late December and Jan. However I believe that late December and January were always the focus. Don't forget we had a snowstorm in our neck of the woods in December 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 City east including LI did ok here in December 2012, not a terrible outcome given the crappy PAC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now.... Pac is important but we can do well without it. Pattern change looks to be coming starting this weekend . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is alone while the eps and geps continue to show a good pattern ahead. GEFS pattern looks fine once we get to late month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: City east including LI did ok here in December 2012, not a terrible outcome given the crappy PAC. The pac is way better than what it was this time last December with a negative NAO. We can work with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: GEFS pattern looks fine once we get to late month. Just checked the 6z gefs. Better than the 0z gefs . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The punting by the ensembles are laughable at this point. Some don’t want to accept it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: City east including LI did ok here in December 2012, not a terrible outcome given the crappy PAC. NYC got only 0.2” in December 2012 and ISP 0.5”. There was one snow event on the 26th. There were a few inches just west of I-95 and more up in Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: The punting by the ensembles are laughable at this point. Some don’t want to accept it Hopefully it's not one of those "it's always 10 days away patterns" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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