Rjay Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yeah it will be awhile before we get good cold air mass in.... It could still work out. But as it looks now, we won't have a lot of cold air to work with over the next 10 days for any of these systems. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep for now but the models are stormy. Can't ask for more. I'll take it-think it's 12/20 and beyond for anything cold/snowy for the immediate coast. Got to get fresh arctic air this time of year... Inland different story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Possible analogue would be 1968-69 which turned into a reasonably good winter for snow in parts of the northeast, don't think much happened before late December. It has been extremely cold at my location since that warm spell abruptly ended in late October. I don't think we've had an above normal day since then, and the only precip has been straight snow, no mixed crap like we almost always get around here in Nov-Dec. The end of 1968 into Jan 1969 was equally cold in this region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I'm liking where this GFS run is going... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'll take it-think it's 12/20 and beyond for anything cold/snowy for the immediate coast. Got to get fresh arctic air this time of year... Inland different story. Agree but I think next weekend we will be good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: I'm liking where this GFS run is going... Storm after storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree but I think next weekend we will be good If it is I’m coming to Brooklyn and buying you a round. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 currently 41 and crisp outside of Central Park. Can't wait for some actual snow Imagine one of those storms works out for us the next few weeks, those are sizable storms that could produce pretty good snowstorms. Envisioning it is key! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree but I think next weekend we will be good Atlantic blocking is remarkably stable and long lasting So it's more or less a waiting game for things to improve our west. So I'm guessing the system on the 9th gets shredded like Euro & CMC show. Looks like GFS is trending in that direction but it's still something to watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: If it is I’m coming to Brooklyn and buying you a round. What makes you think not ? Gfs ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I'm liking where this GFS run is going.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Another step forward on the GEFS IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, wilsonvoid1 said: currently 41 and crisp outside of Central Park. Can't wait for some actual snow Imagine one of those storms works out for us the next few weeks, those are sizable storms that could produce pretty good snowstorms. Envisioning it is key! Wow, it’s 28 here on my Tempest down in my part of Toms River. Feels proper wintry, except it’s going to be a warm, wet mess all week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Another step forward on the GEFS IMO Yep it's coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Hey Walt! Seems to be two schools of thought. One that thinks will improve towards year end when the block retrogrades. The other that seems to believe this rainy, blocky negative PNA look will persist/keep getting delayed. Me personally, I feel that this does not look anything like 97/98 with a GOA Trough flooding Canada with warmth. I believe we eventually get a couple real good opportunities. I think so too. Unfortunately we don't know whether they will pan out. I prefer the NAO block over Greenland so that we're more certain to have a 50/50 low and imo only, I think we could benefit from a more positive WNA ridge and associated digging short waves that close off vertically to 500MB as they turn newd through the mid Atlantic coast. There are many ways to get a big snowstorm. for the coast, but it's early in the season... and SST's are warmer than normal. Right now, I'd settle for several inches of snow in nw NJ/ne PA Saturday. For a bigger storm, I think we need a much stronger 5H trough OH-TN Valley turning enewd toward Delmarva. Hints of yes, but certainty--- ???? How often do we see big snowstorms VERIFY within a day, more than 5 days in advance... ? We see patterns for big storms 5-8 days in advance but track and ptype usually are uncertain. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Eps shifted south/colder for the 9/10th. Getting interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Much milder conditions will return on Tuesday before additional cold air returns. With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +15.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.913 today. On December 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.290 (RMM). The December 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.470 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep for now but the models are stormy. Can't ask for more. I’m not worried about the airmass, if the low location is good and the low strengthens enough the snow will come. The low will create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep for now but the models are stormy. Can't ask for more. Actually we could ask for a better airmass 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Actually we could ask for a better airmass Models are still trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said: Eps shifted south/colder for the 9/10th. Getting interesting That might whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That might whiff I dont think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models are still trending in the right direction. Not with the airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 51 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I dont think so First low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not with the airmass Yes they are for mid month . Gfs has been trending favorable every run. The pattern change is coming and mid month should start the wintry process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: First low? Lets see if gfs still on another planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Lets see if gfs still on another planet It's way amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Yup. On it's own lol. Still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's way amped Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yup. On it's own lol. Still Gfs will cave. It will just take another day or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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