MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The block is blocking on the EC. We have cold/coldish air! Yep more wintry run. Not there yet but the block is doing it's magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Any winter event next weekend or early the next week will be nearly impossible to forecast beyond 3 days as not only is the strong block a factor but the remaining SE ridge impact. So trying to resolve how far south the storm is pushed due to the block is one issue but then what does the SE ridge do 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep more wintry run. Not there yet but the block is doing it's magic. If we pretend this run is real we have 3-4 wintry "threats" to track in the next 10 days. If the GFS is real we have a week long deluge. The real reality will likely incorporate elements of both plus some unexpected changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Any winter event next weekend or early the next week will be nearly impossible to forecast beyond 3 days as not only is the strong block a factor but the remaining SE ridge impact. So trying to resolve how far south the storm is pushed due to the block is one issue but then what does the SE ridge do I think this is a great point. It also makes tracking this week more fun as long as we don't look completely out-of-the-game heading into Tue. or Wed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Mid month signal on the Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I don't trust the gfs one bit. Especially with that strong block setting up. The euro an cmc are both trending colder.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mid month signal on the Euro Nice signal, especially inside of 10 days instead of 15. In my mind any freezing or frozen precipitation prior to 12/18 is gravy on the biscuit. My target dates for something of substance remains 12/20 - 12/31. We SEEM to be edging slowly in that direction. Confidence remains guarded however. At least for another week or so and we see how things look at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: I don't trust the gfs one bit. Especially with that strong block setting up. The euro an cmc are both trending colder.. GFS is always a follower and never a leader so I agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I don't trust the gfs one bit. Especially with that strong block setting up. The euro an cmc are both trending colder.. I don't trust any of the ops right now. Still love the look on the eps though starting around day 8. Second half of the month still looks fun imo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 12z eps is mint. Pacific improvements begin on the 15th. And get better from there. Everything else on track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 A side note. If you take the TPV and swing it out to more of an Aleutian low like this. The SPV has a strong problem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Any winter event next weekend or early the next week will be nearly impossible to forecast beyond 3 days as not only is the strong block a factor but the remaining SE ridge impact. So trying to resolve how far south the storm is pushed due to the block is one issue but then what does the SE ridge do Stronger systems will tend to hug coast with coastal rains and potential interior higher elevation snows. Weaker systems will get suppressed or sheared due to the stronger -NAO and fast Pacific flow. So the actual storm track might not matter that much for snow near the coast. Not much in the way of cold air next 10 days on the EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Mid month signal on the Euro I like. I've mentioned it before, anything before Christmas in the NYC Metro is a bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I thought the GEFS was much improved. EPS may be bad with predicting the PAC, but the GEFS is showing improvement day over day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I thought the GEFS was much improved. EPS may be bad with predicting the PAC, but the GEFS is showing improvement day over day. Hey man, I have the keys to the bus. I'm thinking of warming it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Hey man, I have the keys to the bus. I'm thinking of warming it up. GET IN NO TIME TO EXPLAIN 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Gfs is more south for next weekend. Slowly but surely it's coming around... continue to monitor. Chance some areas n/w could get in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Posters showing good humor. The current events modeled by the GEPS/GEFS/EPS through 12z/19 have total snow depth change over a 360 hour period of less than 1" NYC-LI and 1-3" I84 corridor. This can abruptly change with model changes in dynamics and ptype; but for now... I have to wait this out (through the 12z/4 model suite). From my vantage point: GEFS is somehow closing off a big 5H low over us to develop the big nor'easter for the 10th that the EPS/GEPS do not have. They instead like some snow for PA drying out-melting as it attempts to cross NJ this coming weekend. For now, that is what I go with... not the GFS/GEFS. Maybe something changes more favorably for all of us? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Gfs is more south for next weekend. Slowly but surely it's coming around... continue to monitor. Chance some areas n/w could get in on the action Meh. The 13th-14th should be given some attention in time but it has a really shitty airmass to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Meh. The 13th-14th should be given some attention in time but it has a really shitty airmass to work with. Shitty? Gfs is trending colder and following the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: yeah no cold air-won't matter if it's south. Wrong date and it also came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, wdrag said: Posters showing good humor. The current events modeled by the GEPS/GEFS/EPS through 12z/19 have total snow depth change over a 360 hour period of less than 1" NYC-LI and 1-3" I84 corridor. This can abruptly change with model changes in dynamics and ptype; but for now... I have to wait this out (through the 12z/4 model suite). From my vantage point: GEFS is somehow closing off a big 5H low over us to develop the big nor'easter for the 10th that the EPS/GEPS do not have. They instead like some snow for PA drying out-melting as it attempts to cross NJ this coming weekend. For now, that is what I go with... not the GFS/GEFS. Maybe something changes more favorably for all of us? Hey Walt! Seems to be two schools of thought. One that thinks will improve towards year end when the block retrogrades. The other that seems to believe this rainy, blocky negative PNA look will persist/keep getting delayed. Me personally, I feel that this does not look anything like 97/98 with a GOA Trough flooding Canada with warmth. I believe we eventually get a couple real good opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Meh. The 13th-14th should be given some attention in time but it has a really shitty airmass to work with. yeah it will be awhile before we get good cold air mass in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Shitty? Gfs is trending colder and following the other models. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wrong date and it also came south I deleted it. Both have lousy pac airmasses unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: I deleted it. Both have lousy pac airmasses unfortunately. Yep for now but the models are stormy. Can't ask for more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Happy hour. You can't be disappointed by this run. 2 storm threats next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now