December 2022

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s been tough to get colder patterns later in December since that period is warming more quickly than the early part of the month since 1981. The late December Arctic cold of 2017 was one of the greatest temperature outliers of recent times. This is also why we have seen so much warmth around the solstice to Christmas in recent years.

 

 

2017-18 was so interesting, we had that arctic cold and bomb blizzard in early January and then we had another extreme block with more snow in March and April.

February was the only mild month that season.

That was "the other" kind of La Nina.

[CIK62]

Why are they continuing to run this model?       Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced during late November to the present and has finally shown at least a Normal front 7----but still is super cold (or is that 'stupid cold' for the month.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It took close to 10 days for the retrogression to complete following the strongest global 500 mb block since 1950.

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2011/01/26/while-the-u-s-shivered-amazing-arctic-warmth/

 

Wow most of the dates on that list went below zero, I believe 1/19/85 was the last time JFK went below zero and it was also the last time we had a high in the single digits wasn't it?

And look at Jan 1977 with 4 days in that list lol.  And how did we get an extreme block like that in August in 1956?

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough  kept the heaviest snows east of NYC.

Yes like last winter, the big snow fell to the east of NYC (but better than Nemo here since we also got in on it.)

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. 

I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 

The storm last January was a lot better for us than Nemo, though the heaviest snows were also east (and south of us), got over a foot in it so not complaining lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nemo had an amazing coverage of 30”+ amounts around the region. But those amounts were restricted to east of NYC. It was one of the few times just getting 10”-20” was a disappointment.

 

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER

MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   EAST HADDAM           35.5   845 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK          30.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

 

NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   HAMDEN                40.0   100 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MILFORD               38.0   615 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   CLINTONVILLE          37.0  1040 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OXFORD                36.2   600 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANFORD        36.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MERIDEN               36.0   200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   YALESVILLE            35.0   909 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WALLINGFORD           35.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEW HAVEN             34.3   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   WEST HAVEN            34.0  1040 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORTHFORD             33.5   950 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOLCOTT               33.0   457 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   EAST HAVEN            33.0  1005 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GUILFORD              33.0  1113 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA
   NORTH GUILFORD        32.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WATERBURY             32.0   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MADISON               32.0   321 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NAUGATUCK             30.0   600 AM  2/09  PUBLIC

 

NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   COLCHESTER            31.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

It doesn't come close to matching "Jonas" Jan 2016 though on the NESIS scale.  And the NESIS maps for Jan 2016 are underdone and it's still the third best KU event on the list (I'll put it ahead of March 1960 and right behind January 1996 and March 1993.)

 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Why are they continuing to run this model?       Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced during late November to the present and has finally shown at least a Normal front 7----but still is super cold (or is that 'stupid cold' for the month.

That clown JB always uses this model

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That clown JB always uses this model

Maybe its right 

[EasternLI]

Well now I had to look. Yeah, bullish, we'll need to keep an eye on it. 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe its right 

Your optimism is infectious. 
 

[Franklin0529]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

Gfs now shows a cutter an cmc shreds the storm lol..  models can't catch on in this pattern. Check back Wednesday 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs now shows a cutter an cmc shreds the storm lol..  models can't catch on in this pattern. Check back Wednesday 

Could you imagine if we had competing astronomical models and one showed us getting hit by an existinction level event asteroid and the other one showed us getting whiffed by a few thousand miles?  That would be comical if it wasn't such a serious situation!

While other sciences have gotten better at predicting, it seems like meteorology has stagnated in the last decade or so.

 

[Franklin0529]

Euro shows some snow n/w for the 9/10. Euro cmc showing colder solutions.  Gfs continues to flop around like a fish out of water. We track

[Nibor]

6z gfs really close to something big around 12-13th. Think that might be the one to watch. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Over the last 10 years the average high for the whole month has been 64. There was a slow but steady rise from the 20s to the 80s. But a big jump in the last 10 years of December record warmth.

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	64	64
2021	66	66
2020	62	62
2019	58	58
2018	61	61
2017	61	61
2016	60	60
2015	72	72
2014	65	65
2013	71	71
2012	62	62
2011	62	62

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	61	61
1980	64	64
1981	58	58
1982	72	72
1983	59	59
1984	70	70
1985	55	55
1986	59	59
1987	60	60
1988	60	60
1989	53	53

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	60	60
1959	57	57
1958	55	55
1957	59	59
1956	67	67
1955	53	53
1954	61	61
1953	63	63
1952	59	59
1951	64	64
1950	60	60

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	59	59
1929	56	56
1928	60	60
1927	68	68
1926	49	49
1925	58	58
1924	61	61
1923	64	64
1922	57	57
1921	59	59
1920	58	58

To me this makes perfect sense given global warming. Reduced arctic sea ice means a lag in northern hemisphere cooling. Throw in record offshore water temps and it’s a recipe for delayed winter. I think this just intensifies in the future.
I have no problem tossing the first half of December. Given the long range forecast at least we aren’t looking at a 01/02 style warm ratter


.

[EasternLI]

I thought the 00z eps was outstanding. The NAO block retros to west based on the 13th which has been the target date. Which in turn is starting to knock down the SE ridge. Still some Pacific troughing hanging out early on. But the Pacific straightens right out later in the run. These things take time to evolve, we're in good shape IMO. First panel is day 9 now too. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

6z gfs really close to something big around 12-13th. Think that might be the one to watch. 

Eps says watch next weekend also

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Why are they continuing to run this model?       Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced

That’s the well known CFS cold bias with the blue line at the very bottom. It’s not meant to be a temperature forecasting tool. I am not sure why the CFS is even run anymore since the long range seasonal forecasts are very inaccurate. 
 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/bias/

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     48degs.(45/51) or +9.       Range is tight due to clouds and lots of rain perhaps.

Reached 56 here yesterday (really held for entire day time hours)

Today:    43-45, wind w., m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM.

40*(56%RH) here at 6am.     39* at 7am.       41* at 11am.        Reached 47* at 3pm.       45* at 5pm.      41* at 10pm.

[bluewave]

First half of December should be several degrees warmer than average as the fast Pacific flow and -PNA keep temperatures mild.
 

[WX-PA]

28 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging     48degs.(45/51) or +9.       Range is tight due to clouds and lots of rain perhaps.

Reached 56 here yesterday (really held for entire day time hours)

Today:    43-45, wind w., m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM.

40*(56%RH) here at 6am.     39* at 7am.

Question being that you post the GFS OP for temps all the time..can you post the 0z GFS OP for the next 16 days next to it,just to show the difference

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Could you imagine if we had competing astronomical models and one showed us getting hit by an existinction level event asteroid and the other one showed us getting whiffed by a few thousand miles?  That would be comical if it wasn't such a serious situation!

While other sciences have gotten better at predicting, it seems like meteorology has stagnated in the last decade or so.

 

It is because far too many people fail  to account for climate change.  The overuse of analog years also contributes to poor forecasting. Using analog years would make some sense if the climate had remained essentially the same.

The source region for the cold air has warmed considerably.

Larry Cosgrove is one of the few Mets who mentions that climate change has to be a consideration when developing a seasonal forecast.

Another thing that leads to poor forecasting is a lack of pattern recognition. There is an over reliance on the models and various indexes such aa the AO PNA and NAO.

Just look at what has been occuring....one system after another into the Pacific NW. Back in the day forecasters on the east coast would often mention that a stormy pattern for the Pacific NW doesn't bode well for winter weather enthusiasts on the east coast.....now it is rarely mentioned.

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

To me this makes perfect sense given global warming. Reduced arctic sea ice means a lag in northern hemisphere cooling. Throw in record offshore water temps and it’s a recipe for delayed winter. I think this just intensifies in the future.
I have no problem tossing the first half of December. Given the long range forecast at least we aren’t looking at a 01/02 style warm ratter


.

Correct

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will sunny but much cooler. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 47°

Warmer air will return on Tuesday. A sustained cold pattern could develop around or just after mid-month.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.2°; 15-Year: 48.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 50.0°

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Thank you for your response.  Do you know of a site where the output from these sites can be accessed in real time?

The RadarScope app has all the airport radars like TJFK and TEWR.

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s the well known CFS cold bias with the blue line at the very bottom. It’s not meant to be a temperature forecasting tool. I am not sure why the CFS is even run anymore since the long range seasonal forecasts are very inaccurate. 
 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/bias/

 

 

Initially when it started running, I liked it....  haven't been using this model for at least 4 years.  

 

 

[lee59]

55 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is because far too many people fail  to account for climate change.  The overuse of analog years also contributes to poor forecasting. Using analog years would make some sense if the climate had remained essentially the same.

The source region for the cold air has warmed considerably.

Larry Cosgrove is one of the few Mets who mentions that climate change has to be a consideration when developing a seasonal forecast.

Another thing that leads to poor forecasting is a lack of pattern recognition. There is an over reliance on the models and various indexes such aa the AO PNA and NAO.

Just look at what has been occuring....one system after another into the Pacific NW. Back in the day forecasters on the east coast would often mention that a stormy pattern for the Pacific NW doesn't bode well for winter weather enthusiasts on the east coast.....now it is rarely mentioned.

 

 

Yes this is a definite pattern as long as I can remember, stormy out west and quiet in the east and vice versa. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Isn’t that just a resolution issue though? Because back then, they didn’t have the tools to observe the mechanism behind those patterns the way we do today. And I think there are plenty of examples of seasons that go back and forth, like last winter where January was a stark reversal from December. 

[WX-PA]

30 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes this is a definite pattern as long as I can remember, stormy out west and quiet in the east and vice versa. 

Very 70's, 80's and 90's..western trough and -PNA dominated..There were exception's that lead to great winters,but really this is climo in December for NYC and the coastal sections

[Allsnow]

Gefs have continued to look poor in the pac area. Any changes in that area now kicked to the 18-19th