December 2022

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And of course GFS is back to showing a warmer cutter on the 0z run, as the model continues its flip flops. 

Joke of a model. Pay it no attention.  Especially 7 days out. In the morning will show a blizzard 

[RedSky]

Any chance this is the new GFS that sucks because it made some radical changes.

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I don't care how good the long range ensembles look. Multiple rain events in December with snow threats pushed out beyond 10-day fantasyland is never a good thing for snow enthusiasts. When the goods are relegated to the distance extended timeframes, there's a reasonable chance they will never come.

Eventually it will snow. But right now I see as many signs to be concerned as to be excited. Hopefully that changes for the better tomorrow.

The block isn’t going to just disappear, and nothing has been pushed back. The 1st threat is the 10th, 2nd the 13-14th, 3rd 17-20th timeframe. OP runs are useless this far out. They are fun to look at dont get me wrong, but it’s important to take what they say with a grain of salt, good or bad. Besides they don’t even look bad, the Canadian is gearing up a Miller B at the end of the run.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The block isn’t going to just disappear, and nothing has been pushed back. The 1st threat is the 10th, 2nd the 13-14th, 3rd 17-20th timeframe. OP runs are useless this far out. They are fun to look at dont get me wrong, but it’s important to take what they say with a grain of salt, good or bad. Besides they don’t even look bad, the Canadian is gearing up a Miller B at the end of the run.

I think we wait until beyond 12/12 for any threats-probably more like 12/15.   Canadian is garbage at day 3. and even moreso day 10.  OP models should be tossed at the ranges we're discussing. 

[Rjay]

41 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think we wait until beyond 12/12 for any threats-probably more like 12/15.   Canadian is garbage at day 3. and even moreso day 10.  OP models should be tossed at the ranges we're discussing. 

I think we wait beyond 12/15.  People are rushing this too much imo. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

I think we wait beyond 12/15.  People are rushing this too much imo. 

Climo says our first legit snow threat is around 12/21 as it usually is.

That's when real winter begins.

As it should.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, MANDA said:

I'd take the CMC over the GFS though.  Skill scores confirm that.   GFS I find essentially useless beyond 4-5 days.  It has huge swings run to run.  We'll see if the newly released version does any better????

With the latest "upgrade" the GFS may be bringing up the rear of all the forecast models.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    48degs.(44/53) or +8.

Giving 2015 competition or just another Upside Down Upgrade to the GFS:     Comes complete with 4" of Rain and No Snow nearby.

Reached 47 here yesterday at 3pm and again 9 hours later at midnight.

Today:     53-56, wind s. to w. to nw-breezy, cloudy, rain 8am-4pm, clearing late, 37 tomorrow AM.

52*(82%RH) here at 6am.      56* at 9am.       Basically stayed at 56 all day and is still 56* at 7pm.       53* at 8pm.      49* at 9pm.

 

[EasternLI]

Absolutely loving the resilient ridging near the Urals. That's always a good thing. 

[bluewave]

The primary low looks to cut around the 12th. The models pushed the more favorable pattern back by a few days. So it often takes time to see PNA improvement in a La Niña pattern. 
 

New run

 

 

Old day 11-15 run

 

 

[EasternLI]

06z gefs today looking fairly similar to the 00z eps so far. So that's good. 

[EasternLI]

Way different than 00z lol. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Way different than 00z lol. 

Anything over 300 hours is weenie land . 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Climo says our first legit snow threat is around 12/21 as it usually is.

That's when real winter begins.

As it should.

 

The average first 1” in NYC since the super El Niño has been 12-17. But the spread is very wide between 11-15 and 1-23.  

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
Minimum	01-18 (2020)		11-15 (2018)		226
Mean	03-01		12-17		290
Maximum	04-02 (2018)		01-23 (2016)		332
2021	02-19 (2021)	1.2	01-07 (2022)	5.8	321
2020	01-18 (2020)	2.1	12-16 (2020)	6.5	332
2019	03-04 (2019)	2.0	12-02 (2019)	1.3	272
2018	04-02 (2018)	5.5	11-15 (2018)	6.4	226
2017	03-14 (2017)	7.6	12-09 (2017)	4.6	269
2016	02-15 (2016)	1.4	12-17 (2016)	2.8	305
2015	03-20 (2015)	4.5	01-23 (2016)	27.3	308

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The average first 1” in NYC since the super El Niño has been 12-17. But the spread is very wide between 11-15 and 1-23.  

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
Minimum	01-18 (2020)		11-15 (2018)		226
Mean	03-01		12-17		290
Maximum	04-02 (2018)		01-23 (2016)		332
2021	02-19 (2021)	1.2	01-07 (2022)	5.8	321
2020	01-18 (2020)	2.1	12-16 (2020)	6.5	332
2019	03-04 (2019)	2.0	12-02 (2019)	1.3	272
2018	04-02 (2018)	5.5	11-15 (2018)	6.4	226
2017	03-14 (2017)	7.6	12-09 (2017)	4.6	269
2016	02-15 (2016)	1.4	12-17 (2016)	2.8	305
2015	03-20 (2015)	4.5	01-23 (2016)	27.3	308

2015-16 was amazing with the first measurable snowfall being over 2 feet lol...30+ here

Was JFK's 30"+ in that storm the first time a location's first seasonal snowfall was 30"+?

 

 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Anything over 300 hours is weenie land . 

Its an ensemble mean. Plus it matches the 00z eps run for a change. So that's not insignificant IMO. I'm not talking any specific events. Just the progression. 

[the_other_guy]

This week looks real warm…for December.  50F now.

Nice band of Heavy Rain in Eastern PA headed our way.

[the_other_guy]

40 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging    48degs.(44/53) or +8.

Giving 2015 competition or just another Upside Down Upgrade to the GFS:     Comes complete with 4" of Rain and No Snow nearby.

Reached 47 here yesterday at 3pm and again 9 hours later at midnight.

Today:     53-56, wind s. to w. to nw-breezy, cloudy, rain 8am-4pm, clearing late, 37 tomorrow AM.

52*(82%RH) here at 6am.

 

Always 3-5 too warm…but looks spot on for week 1 with that correction. Wouldnt be so quick to dismiss it with the models playing chase the tail on the “pattern change”

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This week looks real warm…for December.  50F now.

Nice band of Heavy Rain in Eastern PA headed our way.

We will probably make a run on 60° this week which has become the norm in recent years. 
 

 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Its an ensemble mean. Plus it matches the 00z eps run for a change. So that's not insignificant IMO. I'm not talking any specific events. Just the progression. 

Agree

Gefs followed the eps

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This week looks real warm…for December.  50F now.

Nice band of Heavy Rain in Eastern PA headed our way.

first half of the month will be +2 to +3 that will be hard to erase.  

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be rainy and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Some locations could reach 60°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 59°

Cooler air will return for tomorrow and Monday. A sustained cold pattern could develop around mid-month.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.0°; 15-Year: 48.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.6°; 15-Year: 49.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 50.3°

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2015-16 was amazing with the first measurable snowfall being over 2 feet lol...30+ here

Was JFK's 30"+ in that storm the first time a location's first seasonal snowfall was 30"+?

 

 

It was the only 30” one of our major stations.

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	30.5	2016-01-23	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	28.2	2016-01-24

 

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	27.8	1996-01-08	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	27.5	2016-01-23	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	27.8	2013-02-09	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	30.7	1996-01-08	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	32.5	1978-02-07	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	31.9	2016-01-23	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	42.2	1888-03-13	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	40.0	2020-12-17	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	27.6	2003-02-18	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	35.3	2010-01-03	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Worcester Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	34.5	2015-01-27	0

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

first half of the month will be +2 to +3 that will be hard to erase.  

Even with the pattern change?

[Volcanic Winter]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will probably make a run on 60° this week which has become the norm in recent years. 
 

 

Man, couple years with highest max in the low 40’s and even one that looks like 38? 
 

Strictly in climatological terms I was born too late, I should’ve been born before Krakatoa went kaboom. 
 

Edit: Just realized that’s only the first week of Dec, originally thought it was the entire month. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Even with the pattern change?

Pattern change keeps moving out in time which isn't surprising, models always rush pattern change.   Even so, might get back to 0 or average for temps depending on when it actually changes or how cold the air ends up.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Pattern change keeps moving out in time which isn't surprising, models always rush pattern change.   Even so, might get back to 0 or average for temps depending on when it actually changes or how cold the air ends up.

This is about the time in Nina Decembers where we start tracking the LR  breakdown of the pattern change that never actually changed. Hang in there.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is about the time in Nina Decembers where we start tracking the LR  breakdown of the pattern change that never actually changed. Hang in there.

We should all hang in there and be patient. Do you really think the models will be wrong with the pattern change and many meteorologists also ?

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Man, couple years with highest max in the low 40’s and even one that looks like 38? 
 

Strictly in climatological terms I was born too late, I should’ve been born before Krakatoa went kaboom. 
 

Edit: Just realized that’s only the first week of Dec, originally thought it was the entire month. 

Over the last 10 years the average high for the whole month has been 64. There was a slow but steady rise from the 20s to the 80s. But a big jump in the last 10 years of December record warmth.

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	64	64
2021	66	66
2020	62	62
2019	58	58
2018	61	61
2017	61	61
2016	60	60
2015	72	72
2014	65	65
2013	71	71
2012	62	62
2011	62	62

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	61	61
1980	64	64
1981	58	58
1982	72	72
1983	59	59
1984	70	70
1985	55	55
1986	59	59
1987	60	60
1988	60	60
1989	53	53

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	60	60
1959	57	57
1958	55	55
1957	59	59
1956	67	67
1955	53	53
1954	61	61
1953	63	63
1952	59	59
1951	64	64
1950	60	60

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	59	59
1929	56	56
1928	60	60
1927	68	68
1926	49	49
1925	58	58
1924	61	61
1923	64	64
1922	57	57
1921	59	59
1920	58	58

[eduggs]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Pattern change keeps moving out in time which isn't surprising, models always rush pattern change.   Even so, might get back to 0 or average for temps depending on when it actually changes or how cold the air ends up.

Are we in a stable "pattern" now that we expect to cleanly change out of? It looks to me more like continuously evolving climatic and meteorological characteristics that change on a daily and even intra-daily basis. Despite what some people have convinced themselves, there is no guarantee of a new or favorable "pattern." Snow chances will likely increase as we move deeper into winter. But the atmosphere doesn't know what NAO, PNA, AO, and La Nina mean. These are not tangible things that can be switched on and off. There is no discrete era of snowfall that can be promised or delayed. And to the degree that some meteorological characteristics are loosely correlated with weather outcomes, our ability to forecast them beyond 10 days is extremely limited, to the point of frequently misleading.