SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO. This can also be the case of the models not figuring out the blocking in place. All we can do is model watch and see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO. JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO" Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's. This could be one of them but let's hope not. The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO" Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's. This could be one of them but let's hope not. The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy.... People were comparing the upcoming pattern to 2010 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, you wouldn’t want that pattern to lock in. That’s what happened in 2012, 2001, and 1996. Hopefully, we do better than that. But at least the eastern section of the area did great with Nemo in February. I guess that's a possibility then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People were comparing the upcoming pattern to 2010 . Social media has made this hobby brutal. All sort of garbage out there that you have to sift through. Always look at "what could go wrong" It will temper expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, you wouldn’t want that pattern to lock in. That’s what happened in 2012, 2001, and 1996. Hopefully, we do better than that. But at least the eastern section of the area did great with Nemo in February. Yeah ended up being an above average snowfall year IMBY. Good December event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, you wouldn’t want that pattern to lock in. That’s what happened in 2012, 2001, and 1996. Hopefully, we do better than that. But at least the eastern section of the area did great with Nemo in February. 96 and 01 were neutral Enso after La Nina's..This year we are in a moderate La Nina for the 3rd year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Seems fine so far. What's the issue? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Seems fine so far. What's the issue?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems fine so far. What's the issue? no pretty snow maps yet 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The main "issue" I see is if the GEFS is more correct than the EPS, the block is a little east and would tend to favor easter half of sub forum, but NOT ONE Met has shown any deviation from the favored progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: no pretty snow maps yet Here they go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Euro op not a dramatic with linking the block with sue ridge. Turns out we get several threats after the 5th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah for a long time cold air was progged to come in next thursday, but that's not happening. Now the whole week is going to be mild, and overall mid December isn't looking good. Wasn't long ago that mets here were saying best December pattern since 2010. Now we're hoping for a better pattern late in the month, which is very long range so who knows. Long range is too difficult to predict to get excited when it looks good a couple weeks down the road. Exactly. Been cutter city so far with only cold air occurring as storms pass. Another one tomorrow. Another one next week. Then we move to mid month. 2 -3 weeks is an eternity in forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Eps has a nice storm signal around the 12th. Too early for details. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Great post by ORH wxman wanted to share here. No need for concern IMO. Yeah, getting a favorable Pacific isn’t that important for snowfall in Northern New England like it is for us. Some of their snowiest seasons have been out least snowy. They can do great with teleconnections that don’t work for us. Top 10 snowiest seasons in CAR and NYC snowfall Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall NYC Snowfall 1 2007-2008 197.8 11.9 2 1954-1955 181.1 11.5 3 2018-2019 165.4 20.5 4 1981-1982 159.8 24.6 5 1972-1973 153.0 2.8 6 2019-2020 151.9 4.8 7 1968-1969 151.6 30.2 8 2013-2014 150.7 57.4 9 1962-1963 147.5 16.3 10 1976-1977 145.9 24.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 We're basically trending things in the exact direction I'd hoped for all along. But to each their own. The first image is now a beautiful representation of the ssw precursor pattern. The second is when the -NAO retros to west based and sets up as advertised. On the 13th like it has been for days. Too much focus on a couple days of ridging. That's part of a promising pattern for future prospects anyway lol. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The run ends here, for those interested. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: The run ends here, for those interested. Thats purdy! Now lets start getting these eps looks post 300 hours to start moving up in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Perfect, EasternLI! I’m going to hold you personally responsible if this doesn’t pan out. Can I get your name, number, serial number… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Perfect, EasternLI! I’m going to hold you personally responsible if this doesn’t pan out. Can I get your name, number, serial number… We're also going to require a credit card on file for security purposes, your birthday, copy of your drivers license, and ss # please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 This seems like a perfectly good gambling situation. Ridging vs. Trough Over/under on 20 plus inches before the blocking fades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This seems like a perfectly good gambling situation. Ridging vs. Trough Over/under on 20 plus inches before the blocking fades. taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I've always liked the potential for the pattern improvement around mid month. I mean, consider the timing with the holidays. But that was just potential last month. We appear on track and I find that pretty phenomenal. Beyond December still holds promise too, but we'll have to see how that goes. First things first. Let's reel in that blocking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: No it doesn't It will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully it's delayed Maybe people got ahead of themselves calling the pattern ahead the best in years. You're a weenie. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, ag3 said: That -pna allows the se ridge to link up with the nao block. December cancel if that comes to fruition. The pac isn't going to stay like that all month. You sound like NorEaster27 now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, ag3 said: That -pna allows the se ridge to link up with the nao block. December cancel if that comes to fruition. And welcome back lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Who ? Almost everyone all over this forum and social media were saying just the other day how the pattern looks the best in years. Even meteorologists were also giddy. It still looks fine. Multiple people also told you to be patient. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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