EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: First 2 weeks look to be above normal. Question is the last 2 weeks-any further delay in the pattern could lead to an above normal month or if we get a "Warm" NAO block like Dec 1996. Think that was an El Nino if not mistaken, and Canada was void of cold air. As long as we do not have the pig in the GOA 1996 will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The 9-10 storm is a cutter on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: The 9-10 storm is a cutter on gfs Yup, which is expected given the pattern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: The 9-10 storm is a cutter on gfs That model is all over the place. Was down in Virginia now a cutter?? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: That model is all over the place. Was down in Virginia now a cutter?? Lol Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up... Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up... Before that Operational runs are all over Cmc is way south with the 9-10 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Before that Operational runs are all over Cmc is way south with the 9-10 storm CMC is an awful model not sure why anyone looks at it. And the pattern is not what was modeled a few days ago-changes have occurred and they are not good. Kicking the can forward most likely which may not be a bad thing if you want snow for the holidays.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up... Totally agree. If anything of substance - notable cold and snow threat(s) are going to happen it will be from roughly 12/20 to 12/30. There does remain the risk of not much during that period depending on how things evolve. I'm leaning toward an interesting period but there are risks that the pattern does not setup and deliver the goods. At least interesting to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: CMC is an awful model not sure why anyone looks at it. And the pattern is not what was modeled a few days ago-changes have occurred and they are not good. Kicking the can forward most likely which may not be a bad thing if you want snow for the holidays.... And the gfs is any better? No one is kicking any cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: CMC is an awful model not sure why anyone looks at it. And the pattern is not what was modeled a few days ago-changes have occurred and they are not good. Kicking the can forward most likely which may not be a bad thing if you want snow for the holidays.... I'd take the CMC over the GFS though. Skill scores confirm that. GFS I find essentially useless beyond 4-5 days. It has huge swings run to run. We'll see if the newly released version does any better???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: And the gfs is any better? No one is kicking any cans. It's better than the CMC but I would not buy into ANY OP model past day 5 or 6 tops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's better than the CMC but I would not buy into ANY OP model past day 5 or 6 tops. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Me opening up this app at the office and seeing 50+ new posts that I can read instead of working. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up... That is usually when real winter weather starts in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree Not sure why some are giving play by play on OP runs at day 8 10 and beyond (not just here but elsewhere) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: CMC is an awful model not sure why anyone looks at it. And the pattern is not what was modeled a few days ago-changes have occurred and they are not good. Kicking the can forward most likely which may not be a bad thing if you want snow for the holidays.... Yeah for a long time cold air was progged to come in next thursday, but that's not happening. Now the whole week is going to be mild, and overall mid December isn't looking good. Wasn't long ago that mets here were saying best December pattern since 2010. Now we're hoping for a better pattern late in the month, which is very long range so who knows. Long range is too difficult to predict to get excited when it looks good a couple weeks down the road. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, winterwx21 said: Yeah for a long time cold air was progged to come in next thursday, but that's not happening. Now the whole week is going to be mild, and overall mid December isn't looking good. Wasn't long ago that mets here were saying best December pattern since 2010. Now we're hoping for a better pattern late in the month, which is very long range so who knows. Long range is too difficult to predict to get excited when it looks good a couple weeks down the road. December 2010 had a temp departure of almost -5. I didn't realize it was that cold but as Bluewave noted we did not have the warm pool of water off the east coast back then. That certainly changes the equation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 December and February have been the toughest winter months to get a cold departure since the super El Niño. NYC Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: December 2010 had a temp departure of almost -5. I didn't realize it was that cold but as Bluewave noted we did not have the warm pool of water off the east coast back then. That certainly changes the equation.... As Allsnow said a few days ago, I need to see Bluewave on board to get excited. That guy really knows what he's talking about. Tremendously great poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, winterwx21 said: As Allsnow said a few days ago, I need to see Bluewave on board to get excited. That guy really knows what he's talking about. Tremendously great poster. Ugly set op runs today. Going to need improvements in the pac before anything 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ugly set op runs today. Going to need improvements in the pac before anything Hopefully it's delayed Maybe people got ahead of themselves calling the pattern ahead the best in years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ugly set op runs today. Going to need improvements in the pac before anything Massive block means little when it links up with the SE ridge and strong negative PNA. It’s very possible we link up the ridges and can go very above normal for the second half of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully it's delayed Maybe people got ahead of themselves calling the pattern ahead the best in years. Lots of people pointed out the issues weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Massive block means little when it links up with the SE ridge and strong negative PNA. It’s very possible we link up the ridges and can go very above normal for the second half of December I don’t see that but we are definitely not getting a snow look for the east with that -pna 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: I don’t see that but we are definitely not getting a snow look for the east with that -pna That -pna allows the se ridge to link up with the nao block. December cancel if that comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: That -pna allows the se ridge to link up with the nao block. December cancel if that comes to fruition. I think we see improvements in the pac at some point during the second half of the month. I just fear we waste a good Atlantic before that comes. Going to be lots of frustration with several cutters before then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Lots of people pointed out the issues weeks ago Who ? Almost everyone all over this forum and social media were saying just the other day how the pattern looks the best in years. Even meteorologists were also giddy. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Who ? Almost everyone all over this forum and social media were saying just the other day how the pattern looks the best in years. People hear what they want to hear. The pattern was still in the day 10-15 range which is way out there and subject to drastic changes.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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