December 2022

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This low max of only 15° made the top 10 coldest going back to 1869. The 7° minimum was the 12th coldest. But this will be one of the warmest Decembers to have such a cold low max and min. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	December Average Temperature
1	1917	2	25.0
2	1880	4	26.4
3	1884	7	33.6
4	1942	8	31.1
5	1871	9	29.0
6	1883	10	31.6
7	1919	11	30.2
8	1933	12	32.7
-	1872	12	26.7
9	1983	13	35.2
-	1962	13	31.5
10	2022	15	37.8
-	1914	15	31.6
-	1876	15	25.0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917	-13	0
2	1933	-6	0
-	1880	-6	0
3	1942	-4	0
4	1884	-3	0
5	1871	-2	0
6	1980	-1	0
-	1919	-1	0
-	1883	-1	0
7	1875	1	0
8	1914	3	0
-	1876	3	0
9	1983	4	0
-	1962	4	0
-	1872	4	0
10	1988	5	0
-	1955	5	0
11	1989	6	0
-	1909	6	0
12	2022	7	6
-	1921	7	0
-	1874	7	1

This reminds me of February 2016 which was one of the warmest to have a below zero low, wasn't it?

 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I feel like I woke up to a second Xmas morning with this massive Bluewave data dump. 

Thanks man, I always spend a long time going over the temperature data you share and ponder different things / go on diversions looking up further details on specific winters and periods. 

The total scope and variation of our weather here in this area is fascinating. It is remarkably clear though, how the record low and high minimum max temperatures are clearly from a different era. I just don’t believe the NYC / NJ area will ever see another period with high temps in the low single digits and lows well negative. What would it even take to get there? Sure this current cold surge wasn’t in Jan during peak climo, but it was very clearly a powerful front with significant arctic air behind it. How much stronger could it get to force temps down even further?

What else would factor in to produce even colder temps? Seems like we just about maxed out upon what is possible, though that is hardly scientific or anything other than a meaningless point of speculation. 

What else is remarkably clear; it takes an awful lot to produce BN departures these days, though without this current surge being bookended by pure torches in the beginning and end of the month would’ve probably gone a long way to producing a more significant departure. We’re not even going to finish Dec below normal relative to an earlier 30 year average, I gather. Now Jan will face a similar issue even if the remainder of the month is cold to very cold.

Regardless, here’s to hoping we didn’t just experience all of the winter of 2023…in 2022. 

The coldest we have gotten since the early 40s was -2 at NYC and -3 at LGA.  That may be the coldest it can now get around here.  The lowest highs temps were 7 degrees which happened in 1977 and 1985.  That may still yet be possible, as 1984-1985 was a mild winter overall with a historic arctic shot in the middle of it.

To me not getting that cold anymore isn't such a big deal because when it did get that cold we didn't get much snow.  I would much rather have temps in the teens or 20s with a lot of snow rather than single digits with no or very little snow.  Below zero is another matter, as that is historic, the same way 100 or above is historic, so both of those kinds of records are very interesting to see.

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This low max of only 15° made the top 10 coldest going back to 1869. The 7° minimum was the 12th coldest. But this will be one of the warmest Decembers to have such a cold low max and min. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	December Average Temperature
1	1917	2	25.0
2	1880	4	26.4
3	1884	7	33.6
4	1942	8	31.1
5	1871	9	29.0
6	1883	10	31.6
7	1919	11	30.2
8	1933	12	32.7
-	1872	12	26.7
9	1983	13	35.2
-	1962	13	31.5
10	2022	15	37.8
-	1914	15	31.6
-	1876	15	25.0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917	-13	0
2	1933	-6	0
-	1880	-6	0
3	1942	-4	0
4	1884	-3	0
5	1871	-2	0
6	1980	-1	0
-	1919	-1	0
-	1883	-1	0
7	1875	1	0
8	1914	3	0
-	1876	3	0
9	1983	4	0
-	1962	4	0
-	1872	4	0
10	1988	5	0
-	1955	5	0
11	1989	6	0
-	1909	6	0
12	2022	7	6
-	1921	7	0
-	1874	7	1

Look at all those winters in the 80s with single digit temperatures in December.  Those were some very windy very cold days I remember we had wind chills between -45 and -60 in December and January (I wonder what they would be with the new wind chill calculations) and wind chill warnings (not advisories--- actual WARNINGS!)  Granted it did not snow much at all, so I don't miss that kind of awful cold, because the ground was mostly bare.

It's interesting the highs in 1980 and 1988 and 1989 don't make this list, even though the -1 low on Christmas Day in 1980 (accompanied by a coating of snow) was the last time it got below zero in December and December 1989 was the coldest on record.  The only December from the 80s that makes both the lowest highs and lowest lows list is December 1983.  Interestingly enough that came right after the hottest summer on record (to that point).....summer 1983 didn't just have the most number of 90 degree days, it also had the most 70+ dew point days  and the most 90 degree days in September (5).  The change between September and December that year must have been truly jarring!

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This reminds me of February 2016 which was one of the warmest to have a below zero low, wasn't it?

 

Yeah, that was the only winter to average over 40° and have -1° low. 

 

	2015-2016	-1	41.0
-	1980-1981	-1	32.6
-	1975-1976	-1	34.3
-	1967-1968	-1	31.2
-	1934-1935	-1	31.1
-	1926-1927	-1	32.1
-	1883-1884	-1	30.0
-	1872-1873	-1	27.7

[Volcanic Winter]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at all those winters in the 80s with single digit temperatures in December.  Those were some very windy very cold days I remember we had wind chills between -45 and -60 in December and January (I wonder what they would be with the new wind chill calculations) and wind chill warnings (not advisories--- actual WARNINGS!)  Granted it did not snow much at all, so I don't miss that kind of awful cold, because the ground was mostly bare.

It's interesting the highs in 1980 and 1988 and 1989 don't make this list, even though the -1 low on Christmas Day in 1980 (accompanied by a coating of snow) was the last time it got below zero in December and December 1989 was the coldest on record.  The only December from the 80s that makes both the lowest highs and lowest lows list is December 1983.  Interestingly enough that came right after the hottest summer on record (to that point).....summer 1983 didn't just have the most number of 90 degree days, it also had the most 70+ dew point days  and the most 90 degree days in September (5).  The change between September and December that year must have been truly jarring!

 

 

 

 

 

Is there some relation between very warm summers and very cold winters? I’d assume if so in any measurable capacity it would’ve been more observable prior to the current era of accelerated warming, where just about every summer now is exceptionally warm. 

But I seem to recall a few years in the 1930’s too during the dust bowl era with some record warm summers and extremely cold winters. I think the 1910’s too, if I’m not mistaken? It’s been a minute since I’ve looked at total years, unsure of the 1910’s would fit this concept too. 

Side note, both decades featured large volcanic involvement. 

[Volcanic Winter]

And truly, I want to see a DJF with a -4/5 departure to mirror the occasions we torch to the opposite. Just to prove we can do it. 

C’mon Mother Nature, I dare ya!

[bigtenfan]

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an idea of how cold the airmass would have gotten in perfect  nighttime conditions? IE deep layer of snow on the ground, absolute calm winds 

[lee59]

30 the high here today.

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the most visual way to explain it is the extreme warmth (fire) that has been afflicting the Arctic for so many years has now finally reached the extreme northeastern part of the US.

Hasnt this been a common theme over last few years?

Warmest departures to the Northeast of us.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Ready for the torch. My holiday inflatable is ruined. Rain froze it solid and when it went to inflate it ripped 

You had to turn it on as the front went thru so is dried “on” haha

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will mark the start of a noticeable warmup. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal.

Although some of the guidance suggests that stratospheric warming could commence during the second week of January, skill scores at that range, even before considering whether the warming would be sufficient to displace or split the polar vortex, are low. Thus, while the second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, a cold outcome is not assured. Indeed, the latest EPS weeklies illustrate the idea that a cold outcome isn't assured.

It appears increasingly likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0". Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +17.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.421 today.

On December 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.869 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.918 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

[jm1220]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Ready for the torch. My holiday inflatable is ruined. Rain froze it solid and when it went to inflate it ripped 

Both my mother's and my car doors were frozen shut. So... yeah that was fun for 2 days.

[USCG RS]

@psv88 Sorry to hear about your inflatable. If it's any consolation, Harrows is running their normal post-Christmas deals and the one in Melville still has quite the selection of Inflatables left. 

[CIK62]

This is the first 7-Day Period with even Near Normal T's.         Real cold never gets here over the 6 weeks+ of the run:

The final result:

KISS ME GOODBYE and I'll try not to Snow .................................

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=kiss+me+goodbye++youtube#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:a6b0ac57,vid:jqQzRDqTS7Y

[the_other_guy]

No lack of snow in the Cleveland area.

my gut tells me this was our shot and we missed it in terms of snow. We will be in a several week shut out period. then we reload for a bit mid jan.

 

[BucksCO_PA]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting the highs in 1980 and 1988 and 1989 don't make this list, even though the -1 low on Christmas Day in 1980 (accompanied by a coating of snow) was the last time it got below zero in December and December 1989 was the coldest on record.  

NYC on 12/25/1980 recorded a midnight high of 20 degrees, by 4:00am the temp had fallen into the single digits & would remain there for the remainder of the day. The afternoon high was only 5, maybe 6, degrees. Same deal for Philly, midnight high of 24 & an afternoon high of only 8 degrees. 

Christmas eve this year was really impressive given the recent warming trends but with that being said Christmas day 1980 & 1983 still say hold my beer.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

NYC on 12/25/1980 recorded a midnight high of 20 degrees, by 4:00am the temp had fallen into the single digits & would remain there for the remainder of the day. The afternoon high was only 5, maybe 6, degrees. Same deal for Philly, midnight high of 24 & an afternoon high of only 8 degrees. 

Christmas eve this year was really impressive given the recent warming trends but with that being said Christmas day 1980 & 1983 still say hold my beer.

NYC bottomed out at -1 on December 25, 1980.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

NYC on 12/25/1980 recorded a midnight high of 20 degrees, by 4:00am the temp had fallen into the single digits & would remain there for the remainder of the day. The afternoon high was only 5, maybe 6, degrees. Same deal for Philly, midnight high of 24 & an afternoon high of only 8 degrees. 

Christmas eve this year was really impressive given the recent warming trends but with that being said Christmas day 1980 & 1983 still say hold my beer.

Wow!  Did it snow everywhere that day or was it very spotty?  I'm going to put Christmas 1980 on my short list for underrated and underrappreciated extreme winter days.  So far it's that, the January 1985 extreme arctic outbreak and PD2 on the list.  I didn't know the afternoon high was so low, that puts it up there with the elite of the late 1800s and early 1900s as some of the coldest days we have had here all time.  I would love to know what kind of airmass that was and how it compares to the January 1985 extreme arctic airmass which was the only single digit high temperature at NYC I can remember (-2/7 split).  I was way too young in January 1977 to remember that at all.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC bottomed out at -1 on December 25, 1980.

Thanks Don, so if you go by diurnal range, let's say 4 AM to afternoon high, it was more like a -1/6 degree split?

And January 1985 was -2/7 right?

What was January 1977, also -2/7?

Those would be the only three days in my lifetime where the high temp remained in the single digits for the diurnal range (ignoring midnight madness-- officially only January 1985 and January 1977 qualify if you go by official recordkeeping.)

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Both my mother's and my car doors were frozen shut. So... yeah that was fun for 2 days.

You would have really enjoyed the 80s (not) lol.  My sister who's a bit older than me was relating her experiences of how much colder it was back then and how windy, but with much less snowfall (more events but much smaller in quantity).  She said an inch or two of snowfall turned into an icy slushy mess that constantly refroze and made both driving and walking treacherous.  We basically had 1-2 inch light snowfalls in between major arctic outbreaks, or rain in between them which created puddles which promptly froze right near the curb and caused lots of slips and falls when the arctic airmass slipped back in.  2-4 or 3-5 inch snowfalls were considered a major luxury back then and usually came right before winter was supposed to end, a parting "gift" from winter, as it were.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Hasnt this been a common theme over last few years?

Warmest departures to the Northeast of us.

Yes it's destroying the lobster season in Maine too, as both the summer and winter greatest warm departures have been well north of us.  It also makes it more likely for tropical threats to be steered into our region.

In that way it's a little bit similar to the 50s (which also had the most snow in March.)

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Is there some relation between very warm summers and very cold winters? I’d assume if so in any measurable capacity it would’ve been more observable prior to the current era of accelerated warming, where just about every summer now is exceptionally warm. 

But I seem to recall a few years in the 1930’s too during the dust bowl era with some record warm summers and extremely cold winters. I think the 1910’s too, if I’m not mistaken? It’s been a minute since I’ve looked at total years, unsure of the 1910’s would fit this concept too. 

Side note, both decades featured large volcanic involvement. 

I think there might be but it has to fit a certain kind of heat.

Like 1993, 1995, 2002 and 2010 kind of heat.

The kind of heat where you have extreme high temperatures not high heat that is solely the result of high mins.  I think either Don or Chris or both came up with something a year or two ago that would be something worth investigating in terms of the "why"-- this kind of heat actually results from a -NAO in the summer so it makes sense if it was persistent blocking it would also help make the winter cold/snowy too.  That's what happened in 2010.  This is accelerated by when we go from el nino into la nina.  Another winter from the past which fits this category is 1966-67, which was very snowy and came after the exceptionally hot summer of 1966.

While all our summers are very warm to hot now, when we're trying to figure this out, we have to look beyond the numbers and look at what kind of heat we are talking about.  We are specifically looking for heat that comes from extreme high temperatures, not just high mins.

1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010 all fit this category.

Also noteworthy is that of this list 1966, 1977, 1995, 2002 and 2010 were all either el nino going into la nina, two year el nino, or el nino going to neutral.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the only winter to average over 40° and have -1° low. 

 

	2015-2016	-1	41.0
-	1980-1981	-1	32.6
-	1975-1976	-1	34.3
-	1967-1968	-1	31.2
-	1934-1935	-1	31.1
-	1926-1927	-1	32.1
-	1883-1884	-1	30.0
-	1872-1873	-1	27.7

This would be fun to experience again-- I look forward to the next strong el nino, whenever that may be lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Is there some relation between very warm summers and very cold winters? I’d assume if so in any measurable capacity it would’ve been more observable prior to the current era of accelerated warming, where just about every summer now is exceptionally warm. 

But I seem to recall a few years in the 1930’s too during the dust bowl era with some record warm summers and extremely cold winters. I think the 1910’s too, if I’m not mistaken? It’s been a minute since I’ve looked at total years, unsure of the 1910’s would fit this concept too. 

Side note, both decades featured large volcanic involvement. 

Some of these past ones you mentioned in the 1910s and 1930s also featured major swings between la nina and el nino if I'm not mistaken.  That may be the common pattern here.

Very hot summers (that come from extremely high daytime temperatures) commonly come after major heat release going from el nino to la nina or el nino to neutral and going from el nino to a colder enso state also gives us some of our best snowfall winters (because the STJ is still juiced up from the prior el nino and combines with arctic shots which are more common during colder ENSO phases) so that may be what we're looking for.

Note: 1982-83 going from very strong el nino to 1983-84 la nina was another major swing year and although we didn't get the major snows, we did get more frequent snows and the arctic cold sure was there.

 

[LibertyBell]

The connection between the extreme enso swing of going from el nino to la nina resulting in some of our biggest extreme summer heat AND best snowfall winters is pretty well established, but we should also try and analyze to see what happens in the reverse case (going from la nina to el nino) as this may be of more importance in the near future when we finally do swing towards the warmer phase of the enso.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, so if you go by diurnal range, let's say 4 AM to afternoon high, it was more like a -1/6 degree split?

And January 1985 was -2/7 right?

What was January 1977, also -2/7?

Those would be the only three days in my lifetime where the high temp remained in the single digits for the diurnal range (ignoring midnight madness-- officially only January 1985 and January 1977 qualify if you go by official recordkeeping.)

The diurnal high on 12/25/1980 was 7. The temperature reached 10 at 4 pm on January 17, 1977 (topping out at 12).

[bluewave]

This December is colder than the average since 2011. The 37.3 so far in NYC is below the 12 year average of 40.6. But this is closer to average for the previous 12 years. It’s about 1° warmer than the 1951-1980 average. It’s also 3° warmer than the 1871-1900 average.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.6	40.6
2022	37.3	37.3
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	37.5	37.5
2010	32.8	32.8
2009	35.9	35.9
2008	38.1	38.1
2007	37.0	37.0
2006	43.6	43.6
2005	35.3	35.3
2004	38.4	38.4
2003	37.6	37.6
2002	36.0	36.0
2001	44.1	44.1
2000	31.1	31.1
1999	39.9	39.9

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	36.2	36.2
1980	32.4	32.4
1979	41.1	41.1
1978	38.9	38.9
1977	35.6	35.6
1976	29.9	29.9
1975	35.8	35.8
1974	39.3	39.3
1973	39.0	39.0
1972	38.5	38.5
1971	40.8	40.8
1970	34.4	34.4
1969	33.4	33.4
1968	34.2	34.2
1967	38.2	38.2
1966	35.7	35.7
1965	40.5	40.5
1964	36.4	36.4
1963	31.2	31.2
1962	31.5	31.5
1961	35.5	35.5
1960	30.9	30.9
1959	38.4	38.4
1958	29.3	29.3
1957	40.2	40.2
1956	40.9	40.9
1955	29.7	29.7
1954	35.9	35.9
1953	41.3	41.3
1952	38.4	38.4
1951	39.1	39.1

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The diurnal high on 12/25/1980 was 7. The temperature reached 10 at 4 pm on January 17, 1977 (topping out at 12).

So Jan 1977 ranks with Jan 1994 then.  Was the high 7 in Jan 1985?  So 1980 and 1985 had the only two single digit diurnal highs in my lifetime then.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Sunshine will return and it will turn noticeably milder.  High temperatures will reach the middle 30s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 35°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 37°

Temperatures will be above to much above average through the coming weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.5°; 15-Year: 42.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 43.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.3°; 15-Year: 44.3°

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So Jan 1977 ranks with Jan 1994 then.  Was the high 7 in Jan 1985?  So 1980 and 1985 had the only two single digit diurnal highs in my lifetime then.

 

The high was 9° in 1985. So 1980 and 1985 had the only diurnal highs below 10° during your lifetime.