December 2022

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that was one of the best winters for me too.  The Grade A winters in the 10s were 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, and 17-18.  Not including 15-16 despite 40" here and the biggest snowstorm ever here, over 30" and below zero in NYC on Valentine's Day because December was historically warm and Jan 16 had the only big snow storm (though we did have a few decent ones in February too.)

In the 00s, we had 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 09-10 (not going to put 05-06 in there even though NYC had 40" and their largest snowstorm until Jan 2016 because it was a warm winter and that was the only big snowstorm).

So we had 4 in each of the past two decades.

Yeah, IMBY only 3 below average snowfall winters each decade, which is insane considering how poor the 70s, 80s and 90s were.

[EastonSN+]

Maybe seeing the beginning of the Blocking return?

[EastonSN+]

Coupled without an RNA?

[EastonSN+]

Perhaps lining up for this period. Maybe the ridge east helps us this time.

[SnowGoose69]

It sure looks like its gonna get cold and active for a week or two in mid January, its just a question if it flips again...the fact we had the -AO/NAO in December is usually a good sign for the rest of winter, minus 89-90 of course so I feel optimistic this won't just be a January 97/99/00 type of brief flip in a neutral or Nina...La Ninas have a tendency to see whatever the pattern was in December revert back in February alot of the time so we may go back to crappy Pacific again but good Atlantic in February...that works in February way more often for coastal areas than it does in December.

[Dark Star]

19 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

PROBABILITY 0 TILL JAN. 08 and only 10% anyway:

 

Just move that white spot in central jersey about 35 miles farther north...

[North and West]

Just move that white spot in central jersey about 35 miles farther north...

.

[North and West]

How did that workout? 

It’s Christmas, try no to dwell too much on things we cannot control.


.

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It sure looks like its gonna get cold and active for a week or two in mid January, its just a question if it flips again...the fact we had the -AO/NAO in December is usually a good sign for the rest of winter, minus 89-90 of course so I feel optimistic this won't just be a January 97/99/00 type of brief flip in a neutral or Nina...La Ninas have a tendency to see whatever the pattern was in December revert back in February alot of the time so we may go back to crappy Pacific again but good Atlantic in February...that works in February way more often for coastal areas than it does in December.

How long would you think the good pattern will last? I would say Jan 20 just going by recent history to about Feb 20?

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, North and West said:

It’s Christmas, try no to dwell too much on things we cannot control.


.

Sometimes we sure wish we could control it.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

It's amazing how some months are a hair away from looking completely different.

2000 was very very close to being a complete shut out. If that storm was just a bit east/late, would be the record holder.

You were correct at the beginning of the month when you pointed out that 2010 was way stronger than this block, and should in no way compare. In the end 2010 was a historic block. That being said, how much snow would Central Park have if the boxing day blizzard was too far east like the models had? Maybe half an inch?

Goes to show how lucky we have been, and this month is a reminder that now matter how cold it is or how favorable the pattern looks, snowfall is never guaranteed at our latitude/elevation.

IMBY going to finish with 1.5 inches. Amazing.

Our December snowfall since 2011 has been comparable to the late 70s to early 90s. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.8	2.8
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.2	2.2
1994	T	T
1993	6.9	6.9
1992	0.4	0.4
1991	0.7	0.7
1990	7.2	7.2
1989	1.4	1.4
1988	0.3	0.3
1987	2.6	2.6
1986	0.6	0.6
1985	0.9	0.9
1984	5.5	5.5
1983	1.6	1.6
1982	3.0	3.0
1981	2.1	2.1
1980	2.8	2.8
1979	3.5	3.5
1978	0.5	0.5
1977	0.4	0.4

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

It's amazing how some months are a hair away from looking completely different.

2000 was very very close to being a complete shut out. If that storm was just a bit east/late, would be the record holder.

You were correct at the beginning of the month when you pointed out that 2010 was way stronger than this block, and should in no way compare. In the end 2010 was a historic block. That being said, how much snow would Central Park have if the boxing day blizzard was too far east like the models had? Maybe half an inch?

Goes to show how lucky we have been, and this month is a reminder that now matter how cold it is or how favorable the pattern looks, snowfall is never guaranteed at our latitude/elevation.

IMBY going to finish with 1.5 inches. Amazing.

Snow isn’t really guaranteed anywhere but the mountains. Even the coastal plain of New England is struggling, though of course they fair better than we do overall. It really comes down to the storm tracks as you point out, and everything that influences them. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, hopefully next time it will have less influence/not be there at all.

I respect Chris and I personally do not have an opinion to which is correct, but you should check out Orh Wxman and Coastal WX Mets in the New England forum. Their opinion is the PAC is what ultimately failed us.

Again NOT saying which is right, just that there are multiple opinions on why we failed, and maybe it's both.

It was just a little hard to follow the back and forth between the two forums since only snippets of what I was posting were quoted in the New England forum. So the crew there probably weren’t getting a complete picture of what was discussed in our local forum. All I was saying was that the Euro snowy run from last Thursday had a nearly identical TPV location when it was about to enter the US north of Canada. So the only difference between the warmer runs is that the SE Ridge was stronger before the low began to dig into the Plains. The neutral PNA could have worked better if we didn’t have the predisposition for even a slight SE Ridge a few days before storm time. But we always want as strong as a +PNA as we can get for our better snowstorm chance here. So by no means was I trying to say we had a great Pacific to work with. But a marginal Pacific would have worked out better without  the SE Ridge linking up with the -AO block before the storm began to dig. The digging storm just enhanced the existing pattern that was in place.

There was a recent paper that suggested the slowing AMOC and build up of warm waters off the East Coast could actually strengthen the trades and create more La Ninas in the future. So it can be difficult to access where one influence ends and another one begins. But we have been seeing more -AO patterns linking up with ridges extending down closer to the Midatlantic than we used to before the Gulf Stream warmed so much. There has never been an era from 2016 to 2022 with such an intense and persistent SE Ridge. No La Niña patterns from the past produced as strong and  SE Ridge as I have shown earlier in this thread.

Feel free to link to this post. But don’t leave anything out. That way there will be less confusion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01380-y

Climate projections suggest a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under global warming, with evidence that a slowdown is already underway. This could have significant ramifications for Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Arctic sea ice extent and regional North Atlantic climate. However, the potential for far-reaching effects, such as teleconnections to adjacent basins and into the Southern Hemisphere, remains unclear. Here, using a global climate model we show that AMOC collapse can accelerate the Pacific trade winds and Walker circulation by leaving an excess of heat in the tropical South Atlantic. This tropical warming drives anomalous atmospheric convection, resulting in enhanced subsidence over the east Pacific and a strengthened Walker circulation and trade winds. Further teleconnections include weakening of the Indian and South Atlantic subtropical highs and deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low. These findings have important implications for understanding the global climate response to ongoing greenhouse gas increases.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our December snowfall since 2011 has been comparable to the late 70s to early 90s. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.8	2.8
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.2	2.2
1994	T	T
1993	6.9	6.9
1992	0.4	0.4
1991	0.7	0.7
1990	7.2	7.2
1989	1.4	1.4
1988	0.3	0.3
1987	2.6	2.6
1986	0.6	0.6
1985	0.9	0.9
1984	5.5	5.5
1983	1.6	1.6
1982	3.0	3.0
1981	2.1	2.1
1980	2.8	2.8
1979	3.5	3.5
1978	0.5	0.5
1977	0.4	0.4

 

I feel like we were extremely spoiled since 2000, probably the same as the 50s and 60s were for great snowfall.

Oh God I hope we are not in the midst of a repeat of 1970 through 1999. Terrible 30 years save 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel like we were extremely spoiled since 2000, probably the same as the 50s and 60s were for great snowfall.

Oh God I hope we are not in the midst of a repeat of 1970 through 1999. Terrible 30 years save 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96. 

That was way too long  a period to just be "luck" there is a cycle involved here and it's now repeating.....I've been noting that the last few years are very much like the 80s and now we got the drier summer too, so  I believe we are going to be in a much drier pattern with less snow for a few years.  Hotter/less humid summers too (which is good.)

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

It's amazing how some months are a hair away from looking completely different.

2000 was very very close to being a complete shut out. If that storm was just a bit east/late, would be the record holder.

You were correct at the beginning of the month when you pointed out that 2010 was way stronger than this block, and should in no way compare. In the end 2010 was a historic block. That being said, how much snow would Central Park have if the boxing day blizzard was too far east like the models had? Maybe half an inch?

Goes to show how lucky we have been, and this month is a reminder that now matter how cold it is or how favorable the pattern looks, snowfall is never guaranteed at our latitude/elevation.

IMBY going to finish with 1.5 inches. Amazing.

We did strike out in 2000-01 but it happened in March instead of December haha.

 2010 was a fat pitch right down the middle of the plate though-- it was a la nina after an el nino and that is ALWAYS snowy around here.  That was always going to be extremely snowy.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel like we were extremely spoiled since 2000, probably the same as the 50s and 60s were for great snowfall.

Oh God I hope we are not in the midst of a repeat of 1970 through 1999. Terrible 30 years save 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96. 

50s had low snowfall around here as March was the snowiest March and the other months weren't very snowy.  If you go through the 1950s, no year had 40" or more at NYC and the snowiest was 55-56 at 39.2" on the strength of its big March.

1950s are actually comparable to what we have going on right now with March being the snowiest month and high tropical activity.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

One more thing to note, especially in reference to this extreme temperature swing of 50 degrees we had.....big temperature swings were also quite common in the late 80s and early 90s.....1989 and 1990 show up a lot on Roger's list of the biggest temperature swings, so that may be another repeating cyclical pattern, along with going into drier years than we've been used to and less humidity (specifically applies to the summers.)

Might want to look into solar cycles too, as the early 90s were near the peak of solar heating.

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One more thing to note, especially in reference to this extreme temperature swing of 50 degrees we had.....big temperature swings were also quite common in the late 80s and early 90s.....1989 and 1990 show up a lot on Roger's list of the biggest temperature swings, so that may be another repeating cyclical pattern, along with going into drier years than we've been used to and less humidity (specifically applies to the summers.)

Might want to look into solar cycles too, as the early 90s were near the peak of solar heating.

 

These big temperature drops have become more frequent since 2000. So the warming climate is making them more likely. It’s easier to have record temperature drop if you start out with higher temperatures. This month and 2014 were the only 50° drops in 24 hrs.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=all&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[winterwx21]

Amazing that on December 24th we can look out 2 weeks and not see any sign of wintry weather for our area. After the cold air passes on wednesday, it's going to be warm for a long time. Hopefully we'll see changes for mid January as some are optimistic about. But for now with nothing interesting to track and it being Christmas weekend, I'm checking out for a couple days. Merry Christmas! I hope everyone here has a great holiday weekend. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Snow isn’t really guaranteed anywhere but the mountains. Even the coastal plain of New England is struggling, though of course they fair better than we do overall. It really comes down to the storm tracks as you point out, and everything that influences them. 

My SIL is down from Maine, Lewiston area. They've had some snow but it's all gone. They expect a little more this time of year.

[weatherpruf]

Just a question folks I have not seen Uncle W around to opine on history. Anyone know what happened? I'm not here that often in the warmer months.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These big temperature drops have become more frequent since 2000. So the warming climate is making them more likely. It’s easier to have record temperature drop if you start out with higher temperatures. This month and 2014 were the only 50° drops in 24 hrs.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=all&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

That explains 1989 and 1990 too, since we started out with higher temperatures then too.  I recall those were quite windy periods too, I remember the extreme severe weather outbreak in November 1989 with the tornadoes and I think the 8 children who died in the school cafeteria when the wall collapsed.  All the leaves were off the trees in November 1989 before the Thanksgiving snowstorm hit.

These late fall / early winter extreme severe weather outbreaks have become more common too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Just a question folks I have not seen Uncle W around to opine on history. Anyone know what happened? I'm not here that often in the warmer months.

I'm wondering where he might be too.

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These big temperature drops have become more frequent since 2000. So the warming climate is making them more likely. It’s easier to have record temperature drop if you start out with higher temperatures. This month and 2014 were the only 50° drops in 24 hrs.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=all&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

I'm actually surprised it got that cold in 2013-14, I thought that winter was all about borderline temperatures and had lots of snow but most of them switched over to rain.

2014-15 had more pure snow and was much colder.

I see April 2000 in this list and going from 75 to 32 on the 9th, was that when we had 1-2 inches of snow in April 2000?

 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm actually surprised it got that cold in 2013-14, I thought that winter was all about borderline temperatures and had lots of snow but most of them switched over to rain.

2014-15 had more pure snow and was much colder.

I see April 2000 in this list and going from 75 to 32 on the 9th, was that when we had 1-2 inches of snow in April 2000?

 

IMBY 2015 had a lot of mixing and small events. 2014 was great.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Anyone on east end seeing snow? 

[MJO812]

12 here in Brooklyn

 

Not sure when was the last time we didn't get out of the teens for highs here.

[NorthShoreWx]

High temp here was 16 at 1:15.  Down to 13 now.  Could be problematic with local ponds which really have only had skim ice at best before yesterday.

[lee59]

16 my high also, now 13.8