December 2022

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Plus the November storm

From the November 7-8, 2012 snowstorm following Sandy:

[Volcanic Winter]

Nice chilly rain coming down by EWR. Really sets the Christmas mood .

Some of the western M/A folks are reporting a nice thump of snow. Some have a couple inches already. 

Incredibly jelly. 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nice chilly rain coming down by EWR. Really sets the Christmas mood .

Some of the western M/A folks are reporting a nice thump of snow. Some have a couple inches already. 

Incredibly jelly. 

Could be a warm rain. Its the little things to make u smile.

 

Not even a pellet to start. Not one ping

 

Belleayre closed tomorrow. I believe third time in three years on or about Christmas. 

Global Warming sucks

[lee59]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Could be a warm rain. Its the little things to make u smile.

 

Not even a pellet to start. Not one ping

 

Belleayre closed tomorrow. I believe third time in three years on or about Christmas. 

Global Warming sucks

Global warming may or may not suck, but one thing for sure, if you like snow this pattern sucks for us.

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Why are people jumping off buildings because the beginning of January looks above normal?

We've seen a lot of backloaded Winters in recent years.

We have? I can think of 2, 2013 and 2018. Ok, now that I think of it, 2015, but that had some real cold to work with it and none of the snows were memorable, except the very last one around here, which was 8-10 inches ( the upper limits for march storms in my area ). Generally if it doesn't do much in Dec that means it's not lookin good around the New Brunswick area. Your area might be different. And some of those good backend years like 2018 basically missed my area.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Global warming may or may not suck, but one thing for sure, if you like snow this pattern sucks for us.

But patterns often suck for us. Global warming OTOH, is an existential threat. I can live without snow, but problem as I see it is that it is abnormal not to see some level of snow in winter, and that is concerning. A couple if 3-6 inchers if nothing else, but sometimes we don't even see that. Had a run of such years in the past, for different reasons.

[SnoSki14]

I don't think many are ready for subzero wind-chills tomorrow because it's really gonna suck. 

That wind will cut through like a knife 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We have? I can think of 2, 2013 and 2018. Ok, now that I think of it, 2015, but that had some real cold to work with it and none of the snows were memorable, except the very last one around here, which was 8-10 inches ( the upper limits for march storms in my area ). Generally if it doesn't do much in Dec that means it's not lookin good around the New Brunswick area. Your area might be different. And some of those good backend years like 2018 basically missed my area.

I think 91/92 was a back ended too. 

97/98 we didn't get our first and only snow till mid March :() . So I guess a back ender?

That's all the additional ones I can think of.

On the bright side it's weather and ironically unpredictable. So does not look great but who knows.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think many are ready for subzero wind-chills tomorrow because it's really gonna suck. 

That wind will cut through like a knife 

My good GTX shell down parka is coming out for three days. Hoping it’s not the only time I need it this winter. 

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

But patterns often suck for us. Global warming OTOH, is an existential threat. I can live without snow, but problem as I see it is that it is abnormal not to see some level of snow in winter, and that is concerning. A couple if 3-6 inchers if nothing else, but sometimes we don't even see that. Had a run of such years in the past, for different reasons.

The thing is, at least along the coast. We've had a nice stretch of above normal snowfall Winters probably because of global warming. I don't know what the future will bring but if we go into a string of below normal Winters, it wouldn't surprise me either because of global warming or just the law of averages.

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Could be a warm rain. Its the little things to make u smile.

 

Not even a pellet to start. Not one ping

 

Belleayre closed tomorrow. I believe third time in three years on or about Christmas. 

Global Warming sucks

The one piece of good news is that we didn’t have a 40” snowstorm like in 2020 before this storm. So while there will be heavy rains and flood potential in New England ski country tomorrow, the rapid runoff and landslide potential won’t be like 2020. But anything left will freeze like cement which isn’t the greatest.

[hooralph]

The Nov '12 storm absolutely accumulated at CPK. I recall we measured 4".

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast over 6z.

12z runs look like crap

[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think 91/92 was a back ended too. 

97/98 we didn't get our first and only snow till mid March :() . So I guess a back ender?

That's all the additional ones I can think of.

On the bright side it's weather and ironically unpredictable. So does not look great but who knows.

 

I wouldn't count 97-98 as a backended winter.  There wasn't any winter that year, just a rainy season.

However, 4 of the last 10 winters qualify (5 if you include 2015).  I refuse to give up on cold snowy Decembers, but I'm an optimist.

[winterwx21]

44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think many are ready for subzero wind-chills tomorrow because it's really gonna suck. 

That wind will cut through like a knife 

Yeah it's gonna be horrible, but at least we have some warm weather to look forward to. We could be going from the horrendous wind chills Christmas weekend to 55 to 60 degree high temps New Year's weekend. It's looking like quite a torch. 

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's gonna be horrible, but at least we have some warm weather to look forward to. We could be going from the horrendous wind chills Christmas weekend to 55 to 60 degree high temps New Year's weekend. It's looking like quite a torch. 

What do you call it when you feel alive and refreshed in the cold and depressed and unhappy in unseasonable warmth?

Should probably see a doctor about that .

And my wife is the exact diametric opposite of me, so naturally we’re perfect for each other. Though she does enjoy the winter hiking we do, I have to keep her bundled up like a freshly hatched chicken. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I wouldn't count 97-98 as a backended winter.  There wasn't any winter that year, just a rainy season.

However, 4 of the last 10 winters qualify (5 if you include 2015).  I refuse to give up on cold snowy Decembers, but I'm an optimist.

Cold and snowy Decembers will happen again. I mean we had a big snowstorm in 2020. It's just cyclical patterns. We are in a crappy period like the late 90s and pretty much every year from 1970 through 1992 save a couple years like 77/78.

[NorthShoreWx]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Cold and snowy Decembers will happen again. I mean we had a big snowstorm in 2020. It's just cyclical patterns. We are in a crappy period like the late 90s and pretty much every year from 1970 through 1992 save a couple years like 77/78.

I did do a lot of cross country skiing before Christmas 2 years ago.  That was nice.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What do you call it when you feel alive and refreshed in the cold and depressed and unhappy in unseasonable warmth?

Should probably see a doctor about that .

And my wife is the exact diametric opposite of me, so naturally we’re perfect for each other. Though she does enjoy the winter hiking we do, I have to keep her bundled up like a freshly hatched chicken. 

Dropping from 55° to near 10° with 50-60 mph gusts will make it feel colder than if it started out in the low 30s before the cold front. The cool little feature which  we almost never see with an Arctic front is a SW to WSW flow. The Euro has sound effect snow squalls in Southern Rhode Island. The mesos closer in will probably have a better handle on this. Wonder if those areas could get a surprise overperforming localized snow event?

 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

@bluewave I've been thinking that for a couple of days.  Maybe for friends of ours in East Falmouth too.  (CC)

[Volcanic Winter]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dropping from 55° to near 10° with 50-60 mph gusts will make it feel colder than if it started out in the low 30s before the cold front. The cool little feature which  we almost never see with an Arctic front is a SW to WSW flow. The Euro has sound effect snow squalls in Southern Rhode Island. The mesos closer in will probably have a better handle on this. Wonder if those areas could get a surprise overperforming localized snow event?

 

 

 

Interesting! Thanks as always for your fascinating insights. 

And oh I know what’s coming is brutal compared to our usual December cold (when we can get it), but I am truly very adapted to that kind of real cold weather. We just got back from a hiking trip to the north of Iceland last month and we spent days in ~25 degrees with 30-40mph polar winds, which Iceland is famous for.  And I’ve been in -10/20 continental cold before; that’s *really* cold stuff. But it’s all about how you dress, and a lot of people aren’t accustomed to dressing properly for real cold conditions. You need layers on top of layers and good down or lofted synthetic insulation (preferably over a good mid weight fleece), along with something that blocks at least the wind when wind chill is a serious factor. 

Of course good cold weather outdoor gear is expensive and not everyone is able to go that route when we see that kind of cold so infrequently, but at the very least an inexpensive medium weight (at least) down jacket or parka is a good investment (Eddie Bauer surprisingly makes decent stuff at a relatively cheap price point).

But if someone was in the market for a high quality insulation piece, Patagonia is great for everything (highly recommend their Better Sweater fleece, super warm), Arc’teryx for synthetic or shells, Rab or Montbell for down, etc. And Jottnar, an upstart British outdoor company, makes excellent stuff as well. I have a moisture resistant down jacket from them with excellent wind resistance. 

Edit: From our Iceland trip

[Allsnow]

Denver was -24 this morning which is the 3rd lowest temperature for the month of December ever recorded 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

@bluewave I've been thinking that for a couple of days.  Maybe for friends of ours in East Falmouth too.  (CC)

The 18z HRRR had ocean effect squalls for all of Long Island tomorrow afternoon but it’s still on its own.

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dropping from 55° to near 10° with 50-60 mph gusts will make it feel colder than if it started out in the low 30s before the cold front. The cool little feature which  we almost never see with an Arctic front is a SW to WSW flow. The Euro has sound effect snow squalls in Southern Rhode Island. The mesos closer in will probably have a better handle on this. Wonder if those areas could get a surprise overperforming localized snow event?

 

 

 

best chance of a white xmas may be orient and montauk 

[Stormlover74]

Mt holly issued wind chills advisories for NJ

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mt holly issued wind chills advisories for NJ

Awesome……

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I wouldn't count 97-98 as a backended winter.  There wasn't any winter that year, just a rainy season.

However, 4 of the last 10 winters qualify (5 if you include 2015).  I refuse to give up on cold snowy Decembers, but I'm an optimist.

1982/1983 would be a backender too if memory serves.  Christmas ‘82 was the opposite of Christmas ‘83.  The first really warm Christmas Eve in my memory - followed by minimal snow, until the Blizzard of ‘83.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Awesome……

I still remember the old wind chill chart before they revised them to less extreme values.

https://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/opinion/columns/safety-on-the-roads-by-dave-werner/2016/12/wind-chill-values-revised-in-2001/

 

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Cold and snowy Decembers will happen again. I mean we had a big snowstorm in 2020. It's just cyclical patterns. We are in a crappy period like the late 90s and pretty much every year from 1970 through 1992 save a couple years like 77/78.

Good chance we'll see a cold/snowy 12/20 - 12/25 at some point too despite it feeling like forces are aligned against that.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The surface low doesn't really pop now until the ULL is in Western PA so Canada gets a major snowstorm instead. If the trough had dug a bit more we probably could have gotten the surface low to run up the apps which would have still torched the immediate coast but probably would have brought a nice front end dump to the interior.

Much of central PA got a nice event for once today as well as W MD/WV. Up to 6” in spots. A lot of it will probably be gone by the time the cold gets there but a nice stat padder and hopefully white Christmas.