December 2022

[SnoSki14]

We're looking at most of this forum seeing an inch or less of snow through mid Jan by the looks of it. 

Some dire futility records despite a -4 AO this month.

I'm feeling 2012-2013 vibes though and there's a strong possibility that blocking will return 2nd half of winter.

Hell in this climate we could see nothing til Feb and still score 35-40" with a couple storms. 

[gpsnavigator]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I hope this does not get deleted because I do think it is important information. I am an ecologist that teaches both ecology and some climate science at a university..........

 

FWIW, I agree with you on these points, and mostly lean right politically.  Many so-called liberals and myself don't connect that well on a host of other issues.  This one I can find common ground on.  

[JustinRP37]

12 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

FWIW, I agree with you on these points, and mostly lean right politically.  Many so-called liberals and myself don't connect that well on a host of other issues.  This one I can find common ground on.  

I'm very much center, but it just baffling that physics and thermodynamics can be political. I always ask my students why wouldn't we want to be cleaner in the future. Also, we can't judge the past by what we know now because fossil fuels were very much key to getting us to this point, but now we do have the knowledge to have a more sustainable future. 

[BxEngine]

Andddd we’re done. 

[JustinRP37]

I know this is largely a rain storm coming in, but I am shocked we don't have a thread for the wind threat and temperature drop! This could be very impressive on those fronts. Glad to see local ski areas stockpiling snow though at the moment to hopefully push it out after the rain, but then it will turn to straight up ice. 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I know this is largely a rain storm coming in, but I am shocked we don't have a thread for the wind threat and temperature drop! This could be very impressive on those fronts. Glad to see local ski areas stockpiling snow though at the moment to hopefully push it out after the rain, but then it will turn to straight up ice. 

Speaking about temperature drops, the mercury has fallen from 43° at 1:05 pm MST to 10° at 1:15 pm MST at Cheyenne.

[JustinRP37]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Speaking about temperature drops, the mercury has fallen from 43° at 1:05 pm MST to 10° at 1:15 pm MST at Cheyenne.

Good lord! Could you imagine walking into a store in a sweatshirt then walking back out into that?! These temperature drops are seriously impressive. 

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Speaking about temperature drops, the mercury has fallen from 43° at 1:05 pm MST to 10° at 1:15 pm MST at Cheyenne.

We should see more muted drops here but could definitely see a 15-20F drop over 20-30 minutes. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're looking at most of this forum seeing an inch or less of snow through mid Jan by the looks of it. 

Some dire futility records despite a -4 AO this month.

I'm feeling 2012-2013 vibes though and there's a strong possibility that blocking will return 2nd half of winter.

Hell in this climate we could see nothing til Feb and still score 35-40" with a couple storms. 

yeah I would think we will see at least another round of blocking maybe 2 rounds if you go into March/April.

[bluewave]

The December blocking episodes have become more south based since the 1970s. So this allows the block to link up with the Southeast Ridge at times. This will be the case again for the storm on Friday. The one common denominator is the increasing record warm pool to our east. This allows the blocks to extend further south than during eras when the SSTs were much colder.

 

2022

2012-2020

 

2000-2010

1976-1995

[weathermedic]

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

NYZ079>081-178-179-220945-
/O.UPG.KOKX.CF.A.0002.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.W.0004.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...One to two and a half feet, locally three feet of
  inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near
  the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast
  Suffolk, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate to localized major
  flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline
  is becoming likely, with 1 to 2 1/2 feet, locally 3 ft, of
  inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas.
  This would result in numerous road closures and cause widespread
  flooding of low lying property including parking lots, parks,
  lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. A
  few buildings and homes near the waterfront could experience
  flooding. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the
  waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding could also
  extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Along the ocean front, 10 to 15 ft
  breakers (highest across eastern Long Island) will likely
  result in widespread beach flooding and erosion during the
  times of high tide. Areas of dune base erosion and localized
  overwashes are likely as well. Along the south shore of the
  north fork of Long Island, particularly Orient Point, 3 to 6
  ft breaking waves will result in beach erosion and erosion of
  dune structures. Wave splashover of dune structures and
  bulkheads is possible in spots, which would cause flooding of
  roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective
  structures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The potential for locally major flooding
  on Friday morning will depend on the direction and strength of
  winds through the time of high tide. This will be refined over
  the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

[weathermedic]

Many locations forecasted to have moderate to major coastal flooding:

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

PECONIC RIVER AT RIVERHEAD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.6 FT, MODERATE 6.3 FT, MAJOR 7.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/10 PM   2.7/ 3.2  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/10 AM   3.7/ 4.2   0.4/ 0.9   0.1/ 0.6    1-2      NONE
 23/01 AM   3.9/ 4.4   0.5/ 1.0   1.7/ 2.2     2       NONE
 23/11 AM   6.9/ 7.4   3.5/ 4.0   3.1/ 3.6    0-2    MOD-MAJ

ORIENT HARBOR AT ORIENT POINT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.7 FT, MODERATE 5.7 FT, MAJOR 6.7 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/08 PM   1.9/ 2.3  -1.1/-0.7  -0.3/ 0.2     1       NONE
 22/09 AM   2.8/ 3.4  -0.2/ 0.3  -0.6/-0.1    1-2      NONE
 22/09 PM   2.3/ 2.8  -0.7/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     2       NONE
 23/10 AM   5.7/ 6.2   2.7/ 3.2   2.3/ 2.8    3-6   MODERATE

FLAX POND AT OLD FIELD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 9.2 FT, MODERATE 10.2 FT, MAJOR 12.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 4.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/09 PM   6.2/ 6.7  -1.1/-0.7  -0.2/ 0.2     1       NONE
 22/09 AM   7.4/ 7.9   0.1/ 0.6  -0.2/ 0.2     1       NONE
 22/10 PM   7.2/ 7.7  -0.2/ 0.3   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE
 23/10 AM  11.0/11.5   3.7/ 4.2   3.2/ 3.7     0     MODERATE

GREAT SOUTH BAY AT LINDENHURST NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/08 PM   1.3/ 1.8  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/08 AM   1.6/ 2.0   0.0/ 0.5   0.1/ 0.6     1       NONE
 23/09 AM   3.9/ 4.4   2.2/ 2.7   2.3/ 2.8    1-3     MAJOR

GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WEST SAYVILLE NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/09 PM   1.1/ 1.6  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.8     1       NONE
 22/09 AM   1.4/ 1.9   0.0/ 0.5   0.2/ 0.8    1-2      NONE
 23/10 AM   3.7/ 4.2   2.2/ 2.7   2.5/ 3.0    1-3    MOD-MAJ

GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WATCH HILL/FIRE ISLAND NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/09 PM   0.9/ 1.4  -0.7/-0.2   0.0/ 0.5     1       NONE
 22/10 AM   1.2/ 1.7  -0.3/ 0.2  -0.2/ 0.2    1-2      NONE
 23/10 AM   3.5/ 4.0   2.0/ 2.5   2.1/ 2.6     0     MODERATE

MORICHES BAY AT EAST MORICHES NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.4 FT, MODERATE 5.4 FT, MAJOR 6.4 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/07 PM   1.7/ 2.2  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/08 AM   2.2/ 2.7  -0.2/ 0.3   0.0/ 0.5    1-2      NONE
 22/08 PM   2.1/ 2.6  -0.3/ 0.2   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE
 23/08 AM   5.2/ 5.7   2.7/ 3.2   2.8/ 3.4    2-3    MODERATE

SHINNECOCK BAY AT PONQUOQUE NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.9 FT, MODERATE 5.9 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   2.7/ 3.2  -0.6/-0.1   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   3.6/ 4.1   0.4/ 0.9   0.0/ 0.5     1       NONE
 22/07 PM   3.1/ 3.6  -0.2/ 0.3   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE
 23/07 AM   6.2/ 6.8   3.1/ 3.6   2.6/ 3.1     3     MODERATE

FORT POND BAY AT MONTAUK NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.3 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/07 PM   1.9/ 2.3  -0.7/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     1       NONE
 22/07 AM   2.7/ 3.2   0.2/ 0.8  -0.2/ 0.3    1-2      NONE
 22/08 PM   2.2/ 2.7  -0.3/ 0.2   0.4/ 0.9    2-3      NONE
 23/08 AM   5.2/ 5.7   2.7/ 3.2   2.2/ 2.7    4-5    MODERATE

ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/05 PM   4.6/ 5.1  -1.1/-0.6   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   6.1/ 6.6   0.5/ 1.0  -0.2/ 0.3     1       NONE
 22/07 PM   5.2/ 5.7  -0.3/ 0.2   0.5/ 1.0    2-3      NONE
 23/07 AM   8.7/ 9.2   3.1/ 3.6   2.2/ 2.7    4-5    MODERATE

JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   5.1/ 5.6  -1.1/-0.7   0.1/ 0.6     0       NONE
 22/07 AM   6.6/ 7.1   0.4/ 0.9  -0.2/ 0.3     0       NONE
 22/07 PM   5.7/ 6.2  -0.6/-0.1   0.4/ 0.9     0       NONE
 23/08 AM   8.9/ 9.4   2.7/ 3.2   1.9/ 2.3     0      MAJOR

EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -1.0/-0.5   0.0/ 0.5     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.2/ 0.8  -0.2/ 0.2    1-2      NONE
 22/07 PM   4.5/ 5.0  -0.5/ 0.0   0.4/ 0.9    3-4      NONE
 23/07 AM   7.7/ 8.2   2.7/ 3.2   2.1/ 2.6    6-7    MOD-MAJ

REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   3.9/ 4.4  -0.9/-0.4   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   5.1/ 5.6   0.4/ 0.9   0.0/ 0.5    1-2      NONE
 22/07 PM   4.2/ 4.7  -0.5/ 0.0   0.5/ 1.0    4-5      NONE
 23/07 AM   7.4/ 7.9   2.7/ 3.2   2.1/ 2.6   8-10    MOD-MAJ

HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.4 FT, MODERATE 1.9 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -0.7/-0.2   1.2/ 1.7     1       NONE
 22/07 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.2/ 0.7   1.1/ 1.6     1       NONE
 22/07 PM   4.4/ 4.9  -0.2/ 0.2   1.5/ 2.0    1-2      NONE
 23/07 AM   7.0/ 7.5   2.3/ 2.8   3.2/ 3.7    1-2     MAJOR

[HeadInTheClouds]

Western NY is in for it again. It could be really dangerous with winds gusting to 65 MPH, lake effect snow, and very cold temps. Power outages could be a real problem. 

[SI Mailman]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We should see more muted drops here but could definitely see a 15-20F drop over 20-30 minutes. 

As someone who will be outside a bulk of the time from 6 AM til about 5 PM, I know that I'll be dressing in layers and sweating my ass off in the morning and then freezing my ass off in the evening.  

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Western NY is in for it again. It could be really dangerous with winds gusting to 65 MPH, lake effect snow, and very cold temps. Power outages could be a real problem. 

Probably closer to 75 mph near the lakeshores with the developing sting jet.

 

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I know this is largely a rain storm coming in, but I am shocked we don't have a thread for the wind threat and temperature drop! This could be very impressive on those fronts. Glad to see local ski areas stockpiling snow though at the moment to hopefully push it out after the rain, but then it will turn to straight up ice. 

How's Thunder Bump looking? Do you think they have a deep enough base to make it through the r***? At some point I'll come up and show you around some of my favorite spots in the LHV in Patterson. Do you mt bike? 

[CIK62]

The coldest 5 Day Period is  -15.        The first 5 days of January are  +12.( not shown)

btw:  Wind threat seems reduced for the City  65mph down to 45mph.

BURNT SIENNA and we have the highest %.      Nice look on paper---not on your back.............

[lee59]

Denver went from 47 to 7 in one hour, today.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good discussion from Mt. Holly and Upton ref: tomorrow and Friday. 

Mt.Holly: 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...Impactful storm expected for Thursday through Friday...

Overall, there were no major changes made to the forecast with this
update cycle. Our forecast models are in good agreement that low
pressure will rapidly intensify will moving northward through the
midwestern States and then on to the lower Great Lakes by early
Friday...finally reaching Quebec by Friday evening while continuing
to rapidly deepening. This will occur in response to a very strong
upper level jet and associated PV anomaly rounding the base of
a long wave trough causing the system to eventually take on a
negative tilt. This is indicative of a very powerful system with
lots of energy. Impacts across the area will be significant and
include heavy rain with possible flooding in places, very
strong winds potentially leading to power outages and wind
damage, coastal flooding, some wintry precip (mainly north/west
of I-95) both at the onset and ending of the system, and the
potential for a flash freeze Friday due to rapidly dropping
temperatures behind the system`s strong cold front.

Getting into the details, a cold surface high pressure centered over
Maine/Nova Scotia early Thursday will shift eastward as the
deepening low begins to approach. Expect precipitation to begin
Thursday beginning around the mid/late morning in our western zones
and reaching our eastern zones over NE PA and NW NJ by afternoon.
Some mix of snow/rain/freezing rain is still briefly possible at
onset across the Lehigh Valley and Poconos as the surface high
provides antecedent cold air at the surface, but overall impacts
from any snow or ice are not expected to be significant. The cold
air may hang on in the Poconos for just a bit longer, but by the
afternoon, expect the precipitation type areawide to be all rain.
Precipitation will pick up in intensity across the area late day
Thursday through Thursday night when periods of heavy rain are
likely. This will occur as the low consolidates by Friday
morning near southern ontario. Ahead of it, the system`s warm
front will move through Thursday night accompanied by a surging
low-level jet and potent upper trough. Precipitable water values
are progged to be near or just above 1 inch at this time which
is >90th percentile for the day. The overnight Thursday-Friday
morning period could see some heavier rain rates and potential
for flooding concerns with Flood Watches now in effect.

For Friday, a very strong cold front will be centered to our west to
start the day as it will be oriented north/south near central PA.
This front looks to then move eastward across the area...crossing
our western zones around mid/late morning, the Greater Philadelphia
area around midday, and clearing the coast by around 2 PM or so.
Periods of rain will continue ahead of it and along the front, we
could have the possibility for a gusty low-topped line of showers as
well as a few rumbles of thunder with some limited instability
progged. Expect that southerly winds will be gusting upwards of 40
to 50 mph but within this line right along the front, winds could
locally gust 50 to 60 mph. With regard to rainfall, we are still
expecting widespread rain totals of 1-2+ inches with up to 3 inches
or so possible in our northern zones over NE PA and NW NJ (roughly
near and north of the I-78 corridor. This will lead to at least some
potential for flooding which is discussed further in the hydro
section below.


Behind the cold front, dry air will build in and likely put an end
to the precipitation rather quickly. With that said, deterministic
guidance is favoring a quick burst of snow on the backside,
especially across the higher elevations. Confidence is not very high
in terms of coverage, and where snow does occur, accumulations look
to be just a couple tenths of an inch and impacts directly related
to snow are expected to remain limited. The main story behind the
front will be temperatures plummeting quickly through
midday/Friday afternoon and this will lead to a quick re-
freezing of wet surfaces potentially causing very icy conditions
and dangerous travel.


Regarding winds, advisory-criteria (gusts 46+ mph) are likely for
most of the area on Friday. Another surge of the aforementioned low
level jet will likely occur on Friday as the main area of low
pressure and upper trough pass through. The isallobaric wind
component associated with both the rapid pressure decrease ahead of,
as well as increase behind, the front will likely produce the
strongest wind gusts on either side of the frontal passage Friday
afternoon (southerly winds ahead of the front, shifting to westerly
behind it). The combination of a prolonged period of higher wind
gusts with a freshly saturated ground may result in favorable
conditions for downed trees/power outages.


Friday night through Saturday, the low will pull away as it moves
northward through southern Quebec but blustery conditions will
continue in its wake. The strongest of the winds will be abating by
the overnight Friday / Saturday period but by this time the main
story will be the bitter cold temperatures and wind chills. Expect
subzero wind chills by Saturday morning with values in the -10s over
the southern Poconos. It won`t get much better for Saturday as
remains gusty with highs mainly just in the teens to low 20s. This
will mean that even during the warmest part of the day wind chills
will remain subzero north, and in the single digits south...quite
cold for this area!

&&

Upton:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will start off dry with high pressure to the northeast
and two areas of low pressure approaching, one along the
southeast coast and the other over the Midwest. These surface
features will eventually merge into a complex frontal system
late Thursday night into Friday with a deep negatively tilted
upper trough and the parent low tracking through the Great
Lakes.

Overrunning precipitation will begin to move into western
portions of the region as early as late Thursday morning,
becoming likely area wide by afternoon. With temperatures
rising through the day, expecting plain rain across the entire
area. The exception to this would be if precipitation begins
earlier some typically cooler locations across northeastern New
Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley could briefly start as a
period of snow or rain/snow mix. Rainfall will increase in
intensity Thursday night as precipitable water values approach 1
inch and the low level jet strengthens, becoming moderate to
locally heavy at times. The overall flood threat still appears
to be low, but can`t rule out some urban issues or minor
flooding of flashier streams. See the hydrology section below
for more details.

Winds will also increase Thursday night, especially along the
coast, as a 55-65 kt low level jet traverses the area. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for Connecticut, Long Island, New York
City, and portions of northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley beginning at 10pm Thursday with gusts of 45-55 mph
expected, highest along the immediate coastline and farther
east.

There could be a brief break in the rain or at least a decrease
in intensity Friday morning before intensity increases again
with the cold frontal passage. The latest guidance maintains the
earlier timing of the frontal passage, with the front entering
the CWA around 10am, pushing just east of NYC around 1pm, and
then offshore by around 5pm. Continued to include a slight
chance of thunder Friday morning/early afternoon with the
frontal passage, although the greater threat is probably for any
more convective elements to mix down stronger winds. This
threat appears to be rather brief in duration, but can`t
completely rule out a few gusts to 60 mph associated with the
frontal passage.

After early highs in the low to mid 50s ahead of the front,
strong cold air advection behind the front will result in a
rapid drop in temperatures during the afternoon and evening
hours. Temperatures will likely be below freezing for NYC and
points west by 4-5pm and much of the rest of the area by 7-8pm.
As temperatures drop, any lingering water would quickly freeze,
especially on elevated surfaces. Also, while the bulk of the
precipitation should be over by the time temperatures fall below
freezing, can`t completely rule out a few snow showers in the
cyclonic flow, primarily north and west of NYC. This potential
will continue to be refined over the next 24-36 hours as high
resolution model data becomes available.

Cold and dry conditions are then expected overnight Friday.
Lows will fall into the single digits across portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley and into the mid teens elsewhere. With gusty
northwest flow continuing behind the front, this will result in
wind chills around or just below zero Friday night.

[eduggs]

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

There are plenty of journal articles on these topics. This forum is about the upcoming weather. If you really want to know the answers you can find plenty of good information from legitimate sources online or in your local library. You don't even have to search for them, the librarian will do it for you. 

Seconded. A lot of really smart people have researched extensively and continue to research all the gotcha questions in addition to legitimately interesting climate change issues.

[Rjay]

52 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Denver went from 47 to 7 in one hour, today.

Still nuts 

[wdrag]

10 hours ago, Newman said:

Hey Walt, here is the definition for a flash freeze from the glossary of meteorology.

https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Flash_freeze

Excellent!  Thank you.

 

[Roger Smith]

Posted back on Monday, adding the ranks 13-18 (all the 35 deg drops) ...

For potential comparison to 23rd-24th change in NYC max temp, these are the top twelve downward differentials from day to day, 1869 to 2022: 

 

_ Rank ___ Dates _______________ From _ To ___ diff

_ 01 _____1918 Feb 20-21 ________59 __ 18 ____-41

_ 02 ____ 1921 Mar 28-29 _______82 __ 42 ___ -40

_ 03 ____ 1927 Dec 8 - 9 ________65 __ 26 ___ -39

_ 04 ____ 1915 Apr 26-27 _______ 92 __ 54 ___ -38

_t05 ____ 1896 Feb 16-17 _______ 44 ___ 7 ___ -37

_t05 ____ 1978 Jan 9-10 ________ 58 __ 21 ___ -37

_t05 ____ 2003 Apr 16-17 _______ 88 __ 51 ___ -37

_t08 ____ 1876 Jan 10-11 ________60 __ 24 ___ -36

_t08 ____ 1911 Nov 12-13 ________69 __ 33 ___ -36 

_t08 ____ 1933 Feb 8 - 9 ________ 60 __ 24 ___ -36

_t08 ____ 1970 Feb 3 - 4 _________56 __ 20 ___ -36

_t08 ____ 2014 Jan 6 - 7 ________ 55 __ 19 ____ -36

_t13 ____ 1890 Feb 5 - 6 ________ 68 __ 33 ____ -35

_t13 ___1898 Dec 31-1899 Jan 1_ 53 __ 18 ____ -35

_t13 ____ 1918 Jan 12-13 _________53 __ 18 ____ -35

_t13 ____ 1934 Mar 18-19 ________71 __ 36 ____ -35

_t13 ____ 1939 Apr 25-26 _______ 86 __ 51 ____ -35

_t13 ____ 1959 Mar 21-22 _______ 69 __ 34 ____ -35

_t19 ____

_t19 ____

[donsutherland1]

The winter solstice was marked by calm but cold weather. However, the meteorological quiet is about to end.

Already, an major Arctic blast is sending temperatures tumbling in the Plains states. Cheyenne went from a high of 42° to a current reading of -12°. Denver saw the temperature dive from a high of 51° to a current figure of -1°. While the cold won't be as severe and its arrival won't be as dramatic late Friday or Friday night, its will send thermometers to their lowest levels so far this winter.

A powerful storm will bring heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the region tomorrow and Friday. The rain will arrive during the late morning or early afternoon. A general 1"-2" of precipitation appears likely with locally higher amounts. A few spots could reach 3" or precipitation. A light snow accumulation remains possible at the onset of the storm and as it moves away from the region, largely in interior sections. A flash freeze remains possible.

Once that storm passes, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. Temperatures will tumble into the teens in New York City. Nevertheless, the core of the Arctic air mass will bypass the New York City region.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

However, there are cases where Decembers with strong blocking have seen much below normal snowfall. The three cases with less than 1" of monthly snowfall with a monthly average AO of -1.500 or below were: 1985: 0.9" (total seasonal snowfall: 13.0"); 1996: Trace (total seasonal snowfall: 10.0"); and, 2012: 0.4" (total seasonal snowfall: 26.1"). The lowest December snowfall when the AO averaged -2.000 or below was 5.1" in 1976. The lowest winter month snowfall with a monthly average AO of -2.000 or below was 0.5" in January 1998. There is a chance that both futility records could be surpassed this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +37.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.327 today.

On December 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The December 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.635 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.8° below normal).

 

[gpsnavigator]

Disappointing that we will see such a huge warmup after this.

[lee59]

Currently -29 degrees in Great Falls Montana, wind chill -52.

[nycsnow]

Nam showing strong winds starting around 9pm tomorrow night again 

[USCG RS]

10 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I spend a fair amount of time in the Buffalo metro area during the warm seasons and I find it to be a pretty vibrant, hip, youthful and economically strong zone. 5 years ago it wasn't as strong as it is now and people didn't seem to appreciate it like they do now. Other than a handful of isolated spots around the state the WNY region is more outdoorsy than the rest, it's the strongest bike market outside of the 5 Boros  and outdoor winter recreation is booming. If I was 20 years younger I'd strongly consider living there. 

Talk about worn out... 

That's funny. Wife and I are literally considering buffalo rn. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam showing strong winds starting around 9pm tomorrow night again 

I think most places will gust to 45-50mph fairly easily & frequently 

But higher localized gusts up to 60 mph are also possible probably near the coast and ahead of the arctic front.

That could be a problem given 1-3" of rain could fall ahead of the winds. We even have Flood Watches up. 

Models also hint at flash freezes with moisture still present as temps quickly dive below freezing. 

[wilsonvoid1]

does GFS and CMC actually show some snow at the tail end of the storm on Friday evening or that's not going to work out?


.