December 2022

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, storms are more intense from the warmer waters and have paid dividends in January February and March. Too warm in December it appears.

Pros and cons for living near the ocean 

[wishcast_hater]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, NYC now has a 10 year average around 40° in December. It only took 30 years for us to get what used to be normal for DC in the 1990s. So we are becoming more like the Midatlantic.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.2	40.2
2000	31.8	31.8
1999	42.0	42.0
1998	44.4	44.4
1997	41.0	41.0
1996	43.0	43.0
1995	35.6	35.6
1994	44.2	44.2
1993	38.1	38.1
1992	39.6	39.6
1991	42.3	42.3

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.6	40.6
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5

 

Yes - but why isn't the heat island effect taken into account?  We have more buildings, concrete, blacktop, vehicles and solar panels than ever before - all which absorb and release heat and way less grass, trees and open unpaved areas. So while it is indeed warmer its also deceptive.  If I take my house and spray foam the entire structure and then use the same amount of BTU's to heat it as before my average indoor temperature will have increased. I have read many articles over the years about improper placement of thermometers which violate the "good practices" set forth by NWS. So with all that in mind as well as the 30 year average being used its really a no brainer as to why its warmer. 

 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC annual snowfall have also risen to near 30 Inches 

I think that's gonna plummet this decade.

The warming initially led to more precip where even warm winters could yield AN snow but as warming continues it'll just lead to more rain vs snow events.

It's also causing a feedback loop with warmer oceans leading to warmer/inland storms.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I think that's gonna plummet this decade.

The warming initially led to more precip where even warm winters could yield AN snow but as warming continues it'll just lead to more rain vs snow events.

It's also causing a feedback loop with warmer oceans leading to warmer/inland storms.

I think winters will end up shorter, however snowfall will remain relatively static as snowstorms will yield greater amounts when they do happen.

Eventually yes we MAY end up like DC down the road, but I think that will take many years. That last warming period took hundreds of years to reach it's peak. Sure we are accelerating it but it will still take a while.

[EastonSN+]

It's just the CFS weeklies, however may be somewhat correct given the MJO plots.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think winters will end up shorter, however snowfall will remain relatively static as snowstorms will yield greater amounts when they do happen.

Eventually yes we MAY end up like DC down the road, but I think that will take many years. That last warming period took hundreds of years to reach it's peak. Sure we are accelerating it but it will still take a while.

Many of our recent winter months have already resembled DC/VA. I think the changes may happen a lot faster than people expect. 

I predict NYC's average annual snowfall for the 2020-2030 period will be below 20" 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Many of our recent winter months have already resembled DC/VA. I think the changes may happen a lot faster than people expect. 

I predict NYC's average annual snowfall for the 2020-2030 period will be below 20" 

I look at it as it's a real small sample size. The boom from 00 through 18 ended with 18/19 for which we have seen 3 below average snowfall seasons in 4 years. Even if this year ends way below normal it would not compare to the futility of 96/97 through 01/02 where we only had 1 above average snowfall winter in 6 years!

You may be correct, but it may be for the reasons we had in the late 90s, or the 70s or 80s. 

[MJO812]

Wow the lakes are going to get crushed big time. Some areas might see 3-4 feet or even more.

Some areas near Buffalo will have over 100 inches for the season and its not even Jan 1.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow the lakes are going to get crushed big time. Some areas might see 3-4 feet or even more.

Some areas near Buffalo will have over 100 inches for the season and its not even Jan 1.

Time to move to Buffalo

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

 

Yes - but why isn't the heat island effect taken into account?  We have more buildings, concrete, blacktop, vehicles and solar panels than ever before - all which absorb and release heat and way less grass, trees and open unpaved areas. So while it is indeed warmer its also deceptive.  If I take my house and spray foam the entire structure and then use the same amount of BTU's to heat it as before my average indoor temperature will have increased. I have read many articles over the years about improper placement of thermometers which violate the "good practices" set forth by NWS. So with all that in mind as well as the 30 year average being used its really a no brainer as to why its warmer. 

 

it's warmer because of carbon dioxide emissions

[wdrag]

I continue interested in the fluxes with this storm, including front and back end snow here Sussex County/Poconos. Also with a a 970s low in the Great Lakes, hard to see how we don't see widespread 45 MPH gusts either Thu night or Friday. I know 850 winds are down from where'd I'd like and that the sounding is inverted or isothermal most of the time when 850 winds are more than 50kts, so this one may escape us without 65 MPH gusts (LI eastern New England) but I'm still looking. 

Regarding the apparently very warm shift middle of next week or beyond... I see it.  Yet, ensembles still have hints of a minor snow over the interior from VA to BOS,  24 hr snow depth change centered around 00z/THU the 29th. I think the EPS still has favorable upper air with lagging 500MB trough to our west Tuesday evening... not so the GEFS/GEPS. So while it probably won't happen...it's not yet off the table til the EPS shifts the trough eastward faster. 

Yep, am grasping for straws...   still this storm just ahead has my attention.

FLASH FREEZE: I don't think this is defined in the Glossary of Meteorology.  I'll try for an hourly 10 degree drop from above freezing to below freezing with precipitation ongoing through that hour.  

If someone is aware of flash freeze definition---please send us a note. Thanks

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

High wind watch posted for eastern areas of MA/NH. No wind advisories from Upton as of yet.

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow the lakes are going to get crushed big time. Some areas might see 3-4 feet or even more.

Some areas near Buffalo will have over 100 inches for the season and its not even Jan 1.

The Western cluster from the EPS last Thursday did a great job.

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Once in a Generation Winter Storm to Slam the Region Heading into
and THROUGH the Christmas Weekend...

Old Man Winter will unleash the full fury of winter upon our region
during this period...as an extremely amplified longwave pattern will
spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the
Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up
setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and
will have the potential to generate at LEAST storm force winds over
the Lower Great lakes.

As if the very real threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph were not
enough...there will also be the risk for a prolonged...paralyzing
heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds,
blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions
preceded by a rapid flash freeze all coming right before the
Christmas holiday weekend resulted in a *long duration* winter storm
watch being issued for western NY. A Winter Storm Watch has also now
been issued for Jefferson and Lewis county from midday Friday
through Monday. While heavy lake effect snows have already occurred
this winter season...this will be the first event with multiple
impacts from such intense winds. Winter storm watches are already in
effect for parts of western New York with the high component wrapped
into the same product.

An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will
spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the
Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up
setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and
will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower
Great lakes.

Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states
into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25
jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This
will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will
track southern Ontario by late Friday. The `bombing` low will deepen
from roughly 990mb in the vcnty of Lake Erie/Lower Michigan late
Thursday night...to 982mb over southernmost Ontario Friday morning
to about 968mb near the Ontario-Quebec border by Friday evening...
easily meeting the definition of bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such
deepening is relatively rare in the LOWER Great lakes...but more
common across the UPPER Great Lakes and certainly with Nor`easters
along the coast. Some of the parameters of this intense storm are
climatologically `off the charts`...such as MSLP and strength of
both the low level and upper level jets. One could certainly
describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event.
Subtle differences remain...but there remains general model
agreement in the overall large scale scenario...which adds
confidence.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's warmer because of carbon dioxide emissions

I don't understand why this is so hard to grasp. 

The climate change deniers come up with 100s of useless excuses when the most obvious answer stares them in the face. 

[Newman]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I continue interested in the fluxes with this storm, including front and back end snow here Sussex County/Poconos. Also with a a 970s low in the Great Lakes, hard to see how we don't see widespread 45 MPH gusts either Thu night or Friday. I know 850 winds are down from where'd I'd like and that the sounding is inverted or isothermal most of the time when 850 winds are more than 50kts, so this one may escape us without 65 MPH gusts (LI eastern New England) but I'm still looking. 

Regarding the apparently very warm shift middle of next week or beyond... I see it.  Yet, ensembles still have hints of a minor snow over the interior from VA to BOS,  24 hr snow depth change centered around 00z/THU the 29th. I think the EPS still has favorable upper air with lagging 500MB trough to our west Tuesday evening... not so the GEFS/GEPS. So while it probably won't happen...it's not yet off the table til the EPS shifts the trough eastward faster. 

Yep, am grasping for straws...   still this storm just ahead has my attention.

FLASH FREEZE: I don't think this is defined in the Glossary of Meteorology.  I'll try for an hourly 10 degree drop from above freezing to below freezing with precipitation ongoing through that hour.  

If someone is aware of flash freeze definition---please send us a note. Thanks

 

 

Hey Walt, here is the definition for a flash freeze from the glossary of meteorology.

https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Flash_freeze

[North and West]

I don't understand why this is so hard to grasp. 
The climate change deniers come up with 100s of useless excuses when the most obvious answer stares them in the face. 

It’s like baking a cake. You need a little baking powder or salt to help it out, but if you spill three times the amount, there’s going to be something off about the taste.


.

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Time to move to Buffalo

Boring place other than snow-many have left the area due to high taxes and poor climate so alot of blight and empty houses

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Time to move to Buffalo

Watertown for me

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Boring place other than snow-many have left the area due to high taxes and poor climate so alot of blight and empty houses

I would get tired of the feet of snowfall too. It's cool to see every now and then but eventually it would just get obnoxious 

[cleetussnow]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow the lakes are going to get crushed big time. Some areas might see 3-4 feet or even more.

Some areas near Buffalo will have over 100 inches for the season and its not even Jan 1.

If it weren't Christmas me and you would be going.  I just put sweet tires on my truck perfect for this sort of thing.  

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I would get tired of the feet of snowfall too. It's cool to see every now and then but eventually it would just get obnoxious 

I go to Breckenridge CO for a week every Feb-they have snow OTG from Nov-May and it almost never rains in that period.  No sleet/freezing rain.    It would get old after awhile.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't understand why this is so hard to grasp. 

The climate change deniers come up with 100s of useless excuses when the most obvious answer stares them in the face. 

Yeah I don't think there are many out there denying that it's getting warmer. 

[bluewave]

This year may set a new record for temperature swings around the holidays.

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

From torch to freezer back to torch

[cleetussnow]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's warmer because of carbon dioxide emissions

What caused the other warming periods that happened in the last 4,000 years?  Sea levels have risen 40 feet  in that time, averaging a foot every 100 years. 

Or the last 11,000?  Ice has been melting for that long globally.  Its not a new thing.  When should it have stopped?  

It actually did reverse for a time, then peak ice of the last 1000 years was around 1570 ish.  Why did it stop expanding then and reverse?

Should the planet be cooling right now if it weren’t for humans?  Or is there a perfect static temperature we should expect?  

If we don’t think about these things, we may draw a wrong conclusion.  

Asking for a friend.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

The facts I have provided concerning urban warming are 100% valid and yet you dismiss them without any critical analysis. 

The Manhattan heat island emerged between 1890 and 1910. The outer boroughs from the 1920s to the 1940s. So the temperature  rise of the last 60 years has nothing to to with UHI. The minimums are rising just as fast in the rural areas as they are in the urban areas. 
 

 

[ForestHillWx]

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year may set a new record for temperature swings around the holidays.

 

 

 

As a former Texan for 20 months, this will be brutal down there. And it will come in brutally. It’s been a little chilly around Austin but even we’re not in for 48 hours below freezing like they’re in for, and still horribly unprepared infrastructure wise for cold snaps like this. 

FWIW which is nothing I’m sure climate change is somewhat behind what’s going on but not everything since the upper Plains/Montana are still plenty cold over the last few years. Maybe El Niño or a cold AMO phase will change things up. I flew here from Austin right into the bitter Feb 2016 cold snap-ouch from nice weather there to literally the below zero day here. Hopefully La Niña finally going away can switch things up. 

[forkyfork]

37 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Except that in the past it was WARMER without carbon dioxide emissions. Sorry.  Data shows that CO2 levels increase AFTER warming not the other way around. When one side shuts down the other and refuses to debate YOU need to question WHY the suppression of speech. The facts I have provided concerning urban warming are 100% valid and yet you dismiss them without any critical analysis. 

If the solution is to charge me more or pay a carbon tax for everything and limit my freedom of driving, burning wood in my fireplace, forcing me to only use electricity to heat my home then I HAVE to question it especially when those who set the policies are the biggest violators of climate religion.

 

 

28 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

What caused the other warming periods that happened in the last 4,000 years?  Sea levels have risen 40 feet  in that time, averaging a foot every 100 years. 

Or the last 11,000?  Ice has been melting for that long globally.  Its not a new thing.  When should it have stopped?  

It actually did reverse for a time, then peak ice of the last 1000 years was around 1570 ish.  Why did it stop expanding then and reverse?

Should the planet be cooling right now if it weren’t for humans?  Or is there a perfect static temperature we should expect?  

If we don’t think about these things, we may draw a wrong conclusion.  

Asking for a friend.

this isn't a debate. enjoy being wrong <3 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

As a former Texan for 20 months, this will be brutal down there. And it will come in brutally. It’s been a little chilly around Austin but even we’re not in for 48 hours below freezing like they’re in for, and still horribly unprepared infrastructure wise for cold snaps like this. 

FWIW which is nothing I’m sure climate change is somewhat behind what’s going on but not everything since the upper Plains/Montana are still plenty cold over the last few years. Maybe El Niño or a cold AMO phase will change things up. I flew here from Austin right into the bitter Feb 2016 cold snap-ouch from nice weather there to literally the below zero day here. Hopefully La Niña finally going away can switch things up. 

The pattern near the end month looks like it will be something out of a super La Niña playbook as the +SOI really ramps up.