CIK62 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks awful along 74W(and a lot more than that) starting about the 28th thru Jan. 05 minimum: Even if EURO Weeklies are right, the first 7-10 days of January are going to be a 'throw away'. YOU BURN ME UP......................................................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 there has been a consistent trend to amplify the ridging out west... this is a really amplified look. we can work with this the stronger blocking has also helped to elongate the EPV and shift it farther SW, which helps for a possible phase 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there has been a consistent trend to amplify the ridging out west... this is a really amplified look. we can work with this the stronger blocking has also helped to elongate the EPV and shift it farther SW, which helps for a possible phase Would the persistent ridge off the east coast help a bit here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The secondary forming on the arctic front has the potential to screw a lot of people in the upper mid-west, depends on how quickly it forms and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Be nice to snag something before Tanuary. .. I mean January* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The secondary forming on the arctic front has the potential to screw a lot of people in the upper mid-west, depends on how quickly it forms and where. That's what the models are showing today. The front is also speeding up. Better chance of some snow on the backend here but more over the interior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 look at how the strengthening block elongates the TPV and shifts it farther W... this is really important for maintaining a favorable airmass as well as providing NS energy to phase with. this would also help the trough over AK retrograde along with it a bit 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It's funny how people are jumping off bridges because of the warmth coming but the pattern is reshuffling . Good thing is that the block looks like it's rebuilding and thats why next week has a shot. Also LA Nina is on its last leg. Soon or later we will be going into a weak El Nino or neutral state . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how people are jumping off bridges because of the warmth coming but the pattern is reshuffling . Good thing is that the block looks like it's rebuilding and thats why next week has a shot. Also LA Nina is on its last leg. Soon or later we will be going into a weak El Nino or neutral state . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how people are jumping off bridges because of the warmth coming but the pattern is reshuffling . Good thing is that the block looks like it's rebuilding and thats why next week has a shot. Also LA Nina is on its last leg. Soon or later we will be going into a weak El Nino or neutral state . I'm looking forward to the warmth around New Years. Will be a nice break after the frigid air this weekend. Extended cold doesn't guarantee anything. You need well timed systems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like backend accumulating snow becoming more likely for Sullivan county and the catskills on Friday, some possible mood flakes further southeast of there as well, looks like the further west you are the better chance. Next week looks interesting on CMC, I know it's only model showing it but thats fine I trust the CMC more than other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The CFSv2 has a really dramatic flip in weekly anomalies. It is almost as if it has embraced the rule "where there was blue, let there be orange and brown." Yesterday's EPS weeklies had a more muted flip. Whether this is an intermission after what appears likely to be a disappointing opening act to winter despite a notable Arctic blast or something more sinister remains to be seen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Pretty impressive cold for Xmas weekend. If we had snow cover it'd likely be in the single digits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Hey Bluewave serious question - would the persistent SE ridging help bring this west? I don’t think that the models will have a handle on that system until the big storm on Friday gets out of the way. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t think that the models will have a handle on that system until the big storm on Friday gets out of the way. Eps is starting to show some members getting close to the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t think that the models will have a handle on that system until the big storm on Friday gets out of the way. Will the North Atlantic ridge help us for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is starting to show some members getting close to the coast 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Will the North Atlantic ridge help us for next week? It may be our best chance of putting some snow points on the board before the warm up at the end of the month. These strong -AO patterns in a December usually do better than this one has so far. It would be like leaving the bases loaded if we can’t get a least some snow before the month ends. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It may be our best chance of putting some snow points on the board before the warm up at the end of the month. These strong -AO patterns in a December usually do better than this one has so far. It would be like leaving the bases loaded if we can’t get a least some snow before the month ends.As a Mets fan…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 18z Nam From mid to upper 50s on the coast to these temps. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 UP UP And AWAY.............with my beautiful Thermometer: Gonna be the hottest start to any year ever with this nonsense. +17 by Jan. 06??????? Of Note: From: 10pm Friday to 1pm Tuesday<<<<<<32 continuously. From Dec.29 to Jan. 05 and beyond?>>>>>32 continuously. The Ens. is +11 here. Op is +17. 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 We're at the mercy of wave breaks going through the next 2 weeks. And models do horribly with these, as we know. The ensembles are illustrating it well in the loops. This is gefs, but eps looks fairly similar to me with the features. 1st one is the cutter wave break which is then replaced with a ridge in the east. But also note the ridge break in the west which is replaced with a trough. Meanwhile the Alaskan low is retrograding west. Looking just beyond that. You can see the trough then breaking in the west. And the vortex continues to slowly retrograde. Therefore, there's reason to believe in some renewed western ridging after the upcoming warmup. In addition, by that time, the tropical signal is poised to help out with that as well. This will need to play out, because exactly where these waves break will determine what happens. All models have a hard time with this beyond a few days, and ensembles are smoothing everything over due to member spread. All hope is not as lost as it may seem attm. It sucks we're missing a big one, sure. It is what it is, not everything works out. We move on. We monitor. Because these wave breaks are also reinforcement to that northern blocking that keeps hanging around also. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Crazy how this storm completely fell apart for the Midwest/Lakes posters. Now this looks to turn into a huge lake effect event. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: Crazy how this storm completely fell apart for the Midwest/Lakes posters. Now this looks to turn into a huge lake effect event. The 00z Euro closed off the ULL over Southern Indiana. The 12z run today closes it off near Cleveland. The difference between an upper mid West blizzard and one in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, North and West said: As a Mets fan… . NYC will need at least 3.0” in December to have a shot at normal or better seasonal snowfall during a La Niña year. This has been the La Niña pattern going back to the 1990s. So it will be interesting to see how we do with snowfall when the month ends in around 10 days. You would think that we a least have a shot before the blocking relaxes near the end of the month. La Ninas since 1991 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The GFS has really backed off on impacts for our area as well. Only real notables will be high wind potential late Thursday into Friday and potential flash freeze. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Be since to snag something before Tanuary. .. I mean January* I think I get it... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS has really backed off on impacts for our area as well. Only real notables will be high wind potential late Thursday into Friday and potential flash freeze. run of the mill cutter for the most part now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS has really backed off on impacts for our area as well. Only real notables will be high wind potential late Thursday into Friday and potential flash freeze. The only way we get a substantial flash freeze is if there’s substantial precip with the cold front. Models are generally backing off that, maybe a quick 0.2” or so. Most of the rain comes with the warm front on Fri AM. And since the cold air is coming in on SW winds, it’ll be modified significantly. Still quite cold with mid to upper teens (around 10 NW) and wind but nothing that noteworthy for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: run of the mill cutter for the most part now 960s in the lakes is not run of the mill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 960s in the lakes is not run of the mill gets to that pressure later now--- only 995-1000 MB until it gets into the lower lakes...so snow amounts are greatly reduced to the west in areas such as WI and Chicago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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