December 2022

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Could also be a way to describe the “schoolchildren’s blizzard” from the high plains two months previously: 

From Nat.Geo

“On January 12, 1888, the so-called “Schoolchildren’s Blizzard” kills 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northwest Plains region of the United States. The storm came with no warning, and some accounts say that the temperature fell nearly 100 degrees in just 24 hours.”

Veracity of the accounts is something I’m not so sure of, mind you 

I heard that 1888 was a year of vicious extremes but this is truly horrible.  I wonder what was going on that year specifically to make it so extreme?

 

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The late December warmer correction is another example of the week 2 products running too cold recently. 
 

New 240

 

Old 360

 

Thanks for this.

Absolutely pathetic by the ensembles.

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big ridges off of both coasts since the super El Niño in 15-16 have been forcing what little cold there has been down the Plains. 
 

 

 

and yet in 2016 itself we somehow got to below zero in NYC lol

That was one winter of extremes from extreme warmth in December to a historic snowfall in January to extreme cold in February.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to torch! Do you think this is a 19-20 repeat? 

Wasn't 19/20 an El Nino? Or was it neutral?

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think that, along with reduced intensity of the Arctic air masses, is a big reason why single digit readings in New York City and subzero lows outside of City with the exception of areas that radiate really well have become uncommon. Direct Arctic discharges from the north typically lead to the coldest temperatures. The upcoming Arctic air mass, which will set numerous records in the southern and central plains will be no exception. Its core will not reach Newark or New York City. As a result, Atlanta and Nashville will likely have lower minimum temperatures than New York City once December concludes. Savannah could come close to New York City's monthly minimum reading, too.

The warming waters could also be a big factor where the arctic airmasses go.

Our winters have been warming but did you notice they've been getting colder in Montana and Idaho, etc?

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Low 60s to upper 10s would challenge the all-time December 24 hr  temperature drop at Newark set in 1998.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=dec&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Thanks, I wonder how far back the NYC and other local airport records go for this kind of extreme temperature change?

 

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to torch! Do you think this is a 19-20 repeat? 

Worse. We had snow by now in 2019

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 19/20 an El Nino? Or was it neutral?

This Nina is weakening.  I still think NYC ends up over 20 inches this winter...the raging -AO/NAO in December outside of 89-90 has always led to 1 or 2 more similar episodes later in winter, its really tough to get a ratter pattern as you get into Jan-Mar with those indices like that, its much easier in December to fail 

[Eduardo]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 19/20 an El Nino? Or was it neutral?

IIRC, that was the Niño that never coupled (i.e., “behaved like a Niña).

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This Nina is weakening.  I still think NYC ends up over 20 inches this winter...the raging -AO/NAO in December outside of 89-90 has always led to 1 or 2 more similar episodes later in winter, its really tough to get a ratter pattern as you get into Jan-Mar with those indices like that, its much easier in December to fail 

That's why some of us are predicting a nearly average winter, probably around 24-28 inches of snow for the urban areas.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Eduardo said:

IIRC, that was the Niño that never coupled (i.e., “behaved like a Niña).

Is that called a Modoki?

 

[MJO812]

Areas near Buffallo will have over 100 inches in December after this weekend 

Insane

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

Absolutely pathetic by the ensembles.

The tendency to see the -AO block link up with the SE Ridge and become more south based has been a frequent theme. The EPS run last Thursday that had at least a window for a more wintry event didn’t have the linkage. The PNA isn’t much different as the  vortex digging into the PACNW hasn’t changed locations from the forecast last week. So the changes leading to the warmer solution look more Atlantic based than Pacific. If we had a stronger +PNA like in December 2020, this probably would have been another potential KU.

Verification for today

Forecast from last Thursday

 

 

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tendency to see the -AO block link up with the SE Ridge and become more south based has been a frequent theme. The EPS run last Thursday that had at least a window for a more wintry event didn’t have the linkage. The PNA isn’t much different as the  vortex digging into the PACNW hasn’t changed locations from the forecast last week. So the changes leading to the warmer solution look more Atlantic based than Pacific. If we had a stronger +PNA like in December 2020, this probably would have been another potential KU.

Verification for today

Forecast from last Thursday

 

 

Brutal…..with another warm up around solstice. Any hope we flip in January to something more favorable? 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal…..with another warm up around solstice. Any hope we flip in January to something more favorable? 

It is brutal but winter is still young. All this doom and gloom is nonsense.

We go through warmups all the time

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal…..with another warm up around solstice. Any hope we flip in January to something more favorable? 

Beyond identifying model biases day 6-10 and 11-15, it’s a very low skill game to try and guess what happens beyond that range. So we try to use some analogs to fill in the gaps like how low the AO has been in December. One would hope we see more blocking intervals like the list of analogs below.  But the sample sizes may never be great enough to account for all the possibilities. 
 

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

[jm1220]

It doesn't even look like that big a snowstorm coming up with this late week event anywhere outside the snowbelts. Looks like the trough takes a while to close off and the surface low to deepen enough for a CCB heavy snow shield to form over the Midwest and when it does close off, the low occludes quickly and there's only really heavy snow for parts of Michigan. Our secondary low(s) along the cold front might take some of their moisture/snow away too. Chicago area might just get 3-6". 

Reminds me a little of the "convective feedback" area that we screamed at during the 2 January events last winter. This looks a little like that with the waves ahead of the main trough forming secondary lows that in this case hug the coast/go just inland along the cold front and might make our storm worse in terms of heavy rain and winds. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It doesn't even look like that big a snowstorm coming up with this late week event anywhere outside the snowbelts. Looks like the trough takes a while to close off and the surface low to deepen enough for a CCB heavy snow shield to form over the Midwest and when it does close off, the low occludes quickly and there's only really heavy snow for parts of Michigan. Our secondary low(s) along the cold front might take some of their moisture/snow away too. Chicago area might just get 3-6". 

Reminds me a little of the "convective feedback" area that we screamed at during the 2 January events last winter. This looks a little like that with the waves ahead of the main trough forming secondary lows that in this case hug the coast/go just inland along the cold front and might make our storm worse in terms of heavy rain and winds. 

I was just saying that.

Latest snowfall map from Nam

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was just saying that.

Latest snowfall map from Nam

Turning into a snowy cold front passage for most of that area and the low takes forever to organize. Sounds familiar like a certain storm on 1/29 last winter? Not to say it didn't come together for many people but it could've been way better without the competing vorts/double low. 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Turning into a snowy cold front passage for most of that area and the low takes forever to organize. Sounds familiar like a certain storm on 1/29 last winter? Not to say it didn't come together for many people but it could've been way better without the competing vorts/double low. 

The models always had a double barrel low for this storm when it was modeled to slam the east coast. 

The models took it away when it shifted way west into the midwest but now they are slowly bringing it back.

Buffalo is going to get dumped on yet again from the main low and secondary low.

[eduggs]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It doesn't even look like that big a snowstorm coming up with this late week event anywhere outside the snowbelts. Looks like the trough takes a while to close off and the surface low to deepen enough for a CCB heavy snow shield to form over the Midwest and when it does close off, the low occludes quickly and there's only really heavy snow for parts of Michigan. Our secondary low(s) along the cold front might take some of their moisture/snow away too. Chicago area might just get 3-6". 

Reminds me a little of the "convective feedback" area that we screamed at during the 2 January events last winter. This looks a little like that with the waves ahead of the main trough forming secondary lows that in this case hug the coast/go just inland along the cold front and might make our storm worse in terms of heavy rain and winds. 

Proximity to the Ocean definitely enhances our snowstorms. The midwest is a little moisture starved, but the ratios will be better than 10-1 in places like Wisconsin. Michigan should do well, especially with some lake enhancement, and even northern IL could do pretty well.

[North and West]

Beyond identifying model biases day 6-10 and 11-15, it’s a very low skill game to try and guess what happens beyond that range. So we try to use some analogs to fill in the gaps like how low the AO has been in December. One would hope we see more blocking intervals like the list of analogs below.  But the sample sizes may never be great enough to account for all the possibilities. 
 

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

Thank you for your skillful analyses, as well. It helps enhance what I read.


.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The tendency to see the -AO block link up with the SE Ridge and become more south based has been a frequent theme. The EPS run last Thursday that had at least a window for a more wintry event didn’t have the linkage. The PNA isn’t much different as the  vortex digging into the PACNW hasn’t changed locations from the forecast last week. So the changes leading to the warmer solution look more Atlantic based than Pacific. If we had a stronger +PNA like in December 2020, this probably would have been another potential KU.

Verification for today

Forecast from last Thursday

 

 

Hey Bluewave serious question - would the persistent SE ridging help bring this west?

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Bluewave serious question - would the persistent SE ridging help bring this west?

Archambault event ?

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Archambault event ?

I mean I think the CMC is a bit overboard, however a minor to moderate event is not 0%.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean I think the CMC is a bit overboard, however a minor to moderate event is not 0%.

This is close

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is close

Definitely an improvement over 6z. 

Would probably have to be a miller b as northern stream is more dominant. CMC digging a bit much.

[HeadInTheClouds]

CMC is usually the first to sniff these things out so it is something to watch. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is close

Also check that confluence to the North. 

The trough needs to sharpen on the GFS. The Pacific jet screams in and pushes the trough east. Would be a fast mover.

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean I think the CMC is a bit overboard, however a minor to moderate event is not 0%.

A potential problem is the airmass is borderline by then, so it could be an event where you'd have to go NW with rain for the coast.  A long way to go though. At least it's something to keep an eye on.