North and West Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Not good news, but hot off the press:I definitely lack your knowledge as well as theirs, but it feels like whiplash with long range forecasts changing a lot recently. I’m interested to see how this pans out for us. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: The coldest air to our south and west has been the theme for months, indicating to me there really has been no pattern change at least in regards to cold air and the east coast. And the warmest air to our north and east. And that has been a theme for several years now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Weeklies r trash until the end of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 No pain, no gain with the vortex passing Alaska. It needs to get into the sea of Okhotsk for my purposes, and it's on its way. It will not stay parked on Alaska for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: No pain, no gain with the vortex passing Alaska. It needs to get into the sea of Okhotsk for my purposes, and it's on its way. It will not stay parked on Alaska for a month. What happens in Okhotsk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies r trash until the end of January I don't think it's gonna be that bad. Maybe it will be. I'll enjoy the mild weather if it's not gonna snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Record warmth coming is this the same gospel that the snow storm and great pattern was coming in? if it is, I’ll believe the depth and length when I see it Time to start calling out the long term forecasts. They are talking points. Not fact. More often wrong than right. Almost always exaggerated on the cold and warm and wind and precip side. Many 20 inch, 60 degree drop, 70 mph wind gusts that became 10, 30 and 50. and if you live on Long Island near the coast… all in the realm of normal in that they occur with frequency throughout the year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies r trash until the end of January Good. Because the weeklies were great in December. Maybe trash works better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What happens in Okhotsk? Stays in Okhotsk 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s2sailorlis Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Though the snow possibilities may be gone... is anyone concerned about the winds on Friday ahead of Christmas Eve? I can imagine a travel clusterF, along with a boat load of $$ spent on food sitting in fridge... of course if temps plummet one can store it outside... i did that a while ago... but now have a 6500 Watt generator hooked up to my breaker panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What happens in Okhotsk? Strat vortex shots. Need a Scandinavian ridge to finish the job next. But should allow PNA also. Tropical signal supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies r trash until the end of January They were just awesome last week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Good. Because the weeklies were great in December. Maybe trash works better Seriously They had a great pattern last week until the end of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Anyone follow this guy ? Thought that was your cousin or something 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Thought that was your cousin or something The guy looks like an accountant. Maybe I will ask him to do my taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, s2sailorlis said: Though the snow possibilities may be gone... is anyone concerned about the winds on Friday ahead of Christmas Eve? I can imagine a travel clusterF, along with a boat load of $$ spent on food sitting in fridge... of course if temps plummet one can store it outside... i did that a while ago... but now have a 6500 Watt generator hooked up to my breaker panel... Marine fcst here for what it is. Fri S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri Night SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: is this the same gospel that the snow storm and great pattern was coming in? if it is, I’ll believe the depth and length when I see it Time to start calling out the long term forecasts. They are talking points. Not fact. More often wrong than right. Almost always exaggerated on the cold and warm and wind and precip side. Many 20 inch, 60 degree drop, 70 mph wind gusts that became 10, 30 and 50. and if you live on Long Island near the coast… all in the realm of normal in that they occur with frequency throughout the year. It's getting infuriating. We had a good pattern. It didn't produce due to "nuances" that I won't explain bc no one cares to grasp it since it didn't snow much or at all in their location. And some of it was just bad luck. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 is this the same gospel that the snow storm and great pattern was coming in? if it is, I’ll believe the depth and length when I see it Time to start calling out the long term forecasts. They are talking points. Not fact. More often wrong than right. Almost always exaggerated on the cold and warm and wind and precip side. Many 20 inch, 60 degree drop, 70 mph wind gusts that became 10, 30 and 50. and if you live on Long Island near the coast… all in the realm of normal in that they occur with frequency throughout the year. They’re a tool and a talking point, but they’re prone to historically incessant insanity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The silver lining is at least it'll feel like Christmas. Temps for the 24-25th will be coldest we've seen in years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Anyone follow this guy ? (Deleted my original reply bc I wanted my quote to show his name in the tweet, lol) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Too bad this little critter dies out. Could have been our participation trophy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 There is one thing I'll be quietly monitoring. A piece of energy will be coming south after Christmas enhanced by the PNA ridge. Models aren't doing much with it now but we'll see if anything happens. Reason it's interesting is because usually there's a storm before there's a big change in the pattern. And I wonder if models are breaking down the ridge out west too quickly 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 On 12/19/2022 at 4:59 PM, the_other_guy said: is this the same gospel that the snow storm and great pattern was coming in? if it is, I’ll believe the depth and length when I see it Then you missed all the posts commenting on how the big cold and snowy pattern was always 11-15 days away on the ensembles since late November. This has been the model bias for the last 90 days .You can find all my previous posts commenting on how it needs to start showing up under 8-10 days to be believable. As to the warm up showing up near the end of the month, it’s now coming into the under 10 day range which is more accurate. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's getting infuriating. We had a good pattern. It didn't produce due to "nuances" that I won't explain bc no one cares to grasp it since it didn't snow much or at all in their location. And some of it was just bad luck. When some here were hyping, bluewave did a great job explaining the nuances and model biases that put us at serious risk of not getting anything out of the December pattern. No one is saying it wasn't a decent pattern, but a truly great pattern never got to a close enough range that would be worthy of a lot of hyping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 This alleged warmup after the holiday cold snap looks like a 10-15 day event with zonal flow from Pacific across the continent, it will be mild (40s to low 50s) but maybe not record mild. Tends to be a dry pattern also with weak frontal systems. Similar events in Jan 1948 and 1961 dominated first halves of months that turned bitterly cold later, with coastal storm opportunities. Or perhaps this goes a bit more like Jan 1982 which had a mild opening week before deep cold and coastal storms developed after about the 8th. So it may not be such a bad thing to see this pattern change across the west, could reset a good pattern in the climatological peak of winter. We have been consistently 4-8 F below normal around here since about 20th of October, and it is particularly cold today (current mid-afternoon reading 5F or -15C with 45 cm snow cover). CFS coastal? Not gonna happen, at least not with that intensity. The big story will be that very sharp temperature drop on the 23rd. My guess, 57F noon, 32F 6 p.m., 18F midnight. Will run a program on NYC data base to find largest day to day differentials in max temp, 23rd-24th may give whatever record exists there a run. Maybe that Nov 1911 event would win top prize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's getting infuriating. We had a good pattern. It didn't produce due to "nuances" that I won't explain bc no one cares to grasp it since it didn't snow much or at all in their location. And some of it was just bad luck. It’s insufferable in here. I’ve almost completely checked out. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: When some here were hyping, bluewave did a great job explaining the nuances and model biases that put us at serious risk of not getting anything out of the December pattern. No one is saying it wasn't a decent pattern, but a truly great pattern never got to a close enough range that would be worthy of a lot of hyping. Completely disagree with that assertion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Low pressure # 15 please 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I want to make sure this gets noticed: by all who have interest in GFS model snow fall in the United States. The model update on 11/30/22 I think is resulting in improved snowfall prediction. It certainly was a cyclically very good performer here in the NYC subforum coverage for 12/15-16. It's picking up on warm ground and elevations better. Attached are some notes from a recent presentation: I only snapped the primary conclusions. Note: Using 10 to 1 is not going to be a consistently good approach, especially warm thickness (1000-500MB 540DM or higher) snows and/or temps 32-34F. This presentation also references Tropical Tidbits Positive Snow Depth Change (SNOD in NCEP language). 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 as far as anything to keep half an eye on over the next few days, I suppose the wave early next week would be worth it it's too progressive verbatim, but this is the type of thing that models do a pretty bad job with at this range. this is a pretty strong S/W and could pose a threat if it rounds the corner. obviously, this is difficult given the +PNA deamplifying, but this could change given the lead time so, pretty low chance, but it's something to peek at given the very cold air in place as well as a regime change as the block fades also worth it given that we're going to absolutely torch after this chance through the New Year 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now